ant, in the 3rd year, the new head coach is only working w 2 of his recruited classes, and as shown in the article, his first recruiting class is not usually much of one, based on the fact that it is a conglomerate of both the outgoing staff (who can't close the deal because they are heading out the door) and the incoming staff (who will be starting out 10 months behind in recruiting for the year).
So a head coach in his 3rd year will be working w his own recruited freshmen and his cobbled together Sophomore class, and using his predecessors Srs, Jrs and RS Sophs. If lucky, this is not that crazy of a difference. In NDs case you see what happened with the dirth of recruiting w TW vs BD before him. TW was left w more players w higher ratings from BD than CW was left w from TW.
Although many talking heads like to gloss over this point and say that a coach in the 3rd year has 3 years w of his players, thats absolutely ignorant. Thats why after hearing it for the last year from MarkMay etal, I can't believe anything they say, because they are factually false.
That is a different arguement than a coach having his stamp put on a program for 3 years. That is why some coached are better than others- they can coach up a team sometimes until their players get to be Jrs in yr 4, where they should have a large impact. Also, some new staffs come in to a situation where the O or D are not greatly different or the recruiting has been going well.
Anyway, TIFWIW