Trump Presidency Round 2

Irish#1

Irish#1

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TorontoGold said:
The fact anyone has to take the position of “Golly we just have to see how this turns out! :3” seriously, is fucking brain dead. It’s worth it to pay the tariff than to have Kyle in Ohio making 10x per hour than some child in Malaysia.

But yeah Bish/#1 saw a twitter video from SuperPatriot so who knows how it’s going to play out lmao
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That's not what I meant. I guess I'm too dumb to explain it in a way that you would understand, but I'll try one last time. Trump announces tariffs on Monday that will go into effect on Thursday the following week (I'm just using arbitrary days, so don't get hung up on them). The market immediately reacts, rather than waiting until Thursday when they go into effect. Why? Speculation! In the meantime tariffs get negotiated and the tariffs initially quoted are eliminated, reduced or are increased so the impact isn't quite what was speculated when they were announced. That's what I meant. BTW.....If you need any help downloading the H&R Block software let me know.
 
BuaConstrictor

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Irish#1 said:
I guess I'm too dumb
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Correct!

Irish#1 said:
Why? Speculation!
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See above about you being too dumb.

You keep using this term "speculation". Why are you acting like we don't already have hundreds of years of data about what the effects of tariffs are? You keep using the term "speculation" as though data doesn't exist. It does. It's not really "speculative."
Irish#1 said:
In the meantime tariffs get negotiated and the tariffs initially quoted are eliminated, reduced or are increased so the impact isn't quite what was speculated when they were announced
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Holy fuck..then the market would adjust!

Also, what you said ACTUALLY HAPPENED.

Part of the market drop on Friday was actually due to "results". The market was reacting to the Chinese announcing their new tariffs against the US..which were a direct result of Trump's tariffs.

So now the market is reacting to the RESULTS of the tariffs.
 
TorontoGold

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Irish#1 said:
That's not what I meant. I guess I'm too dumb to explain it in a way that you would understand, but I'll try one last time. Trump announces tariffs on Monday that will go into effect on Thursday the following week (I'm just using arbitrary days, so don't get hung up on them). The market immediately reacts, rather than waiting until Thursday when they go into effect. Why? Speculation! In the meantime tariffs get negotiated and the tariffs initially quoted are eliminated, reduced or are increased so the impact isn't quite what was speculated when they were announced. That's what I meant. BTW.....If you need any help downloading the H&R Block software let me know.
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Because everyone knows how awful tariffs are! That's why the market reacted that way! If I announce my intention to do something objectively stupid, people are not going to say "well well well who knows how this is going to play out!". It's like threatening to kill yourself so your wife doesn't leave you, even if your wife doesn't leave you it's not a good process and will destroy the relationship.
 
IrishLax

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Last thing I will say on this topic for awhile is that people are disconnected from reality on how trade works with raw materials / refined materials / food / etc. Not everywhere has everything, you need some form of free trade in order to do any effective manufacturing. What Trump has done … if it sticks … will actually kill American manufacturing not help it. You need target tariffs and you need to be strategic with what you exempt and from who. Not only has he made it harder for American factories to bring in what they need to manufacture but other countries have now retaliated and our average export tariff has gone from 2% to 6%. We are 4% less competitive now in the global markets on anything we want to sell.

Best example I can give is that I have a large roofing project coming up with the membrane is manufactured in Texas. Great right? Buy American! But the materials you need to actually make the finished product come from all over the place. My client is now potentially looking at a massive surcharge to do the project and waffling between trying to expedite it so that the pre-tariff price holds or delaying it until hopefull someone comes to their senses.
 
IrishLax

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BuaConstrictor said:
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Even if Trump reverses course at this point we might be cooked because no one is going to trust him moving forward. Pretty much the only option is some form of legislation giving them oversight on tariffs so that they can be like "look, he's not going to wake up tomorrow and randomly charge you a 1000% tariff because of some perceived slight."
 
BuaConstrictor

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IrishLax said:
Pretty much the only option is some form of legislation giving them oversight on tariffs
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The kicker is.....that Congress already had this.....and they(the GOP) are allowing Trump to use it under "emergency powers". They now need legislation to undo the emergency powers they are allowing him to use and take back their Constitutional authority to control taxes/tariffs etc.

That's how fucking stupid all of this (and the GOP) is.

Longer form on the topic:
www.brennancenter.org

How the President Is Misusing Emergency Powers to Impose Worldwide Tariffs

Concocting an emergency to advance economic and foreign policy goals is an abuse of power.
www.brennancenter.org www.brennancenter.org
 
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BuaConstrictor

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IrishLax said:
Not everywhere has everything
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Sorry..just made me think of this:

itysl-everything.gif
 
TorontoGold

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IrishLax said:
Even if Trump reverses course at this point we might be cooked because no one is going to trust him moving forward. Pretty much the only option is some form of legislation giving them oversight on tariffs so that they can be like "look, he's not going to wake up tomorrow and randomly charge you a 1000% tariff because of some perceived slight."
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I think the saving grace for sane American's is that even with a toddler who has no concept of international trade running the country, the size of the economy will always force companies to have a major presence. Especially given the fact that US treasury bonds being held by literally every country. It's not in their best interest to have the US economy tank into oblivion.

So, the self inflicted wounds will hurt the dumbass uneducated Trump voters who think tariffs are this genius tool. We'll see how they justify it in the future when companies are way more careful with their capital, is it because Honda is woke? Amazon is anti-Christian?
 
BuaConstrictor

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BuaConstrictor said:
The kicker is.....that Congress already had this.....and they(the GOP) are allowing Trump to use it under "emergency powers". They now need legislation to undo the emergency powers they are allowing him to use and take back their Constitutional authority to control taxes/tariffs etc.

That's how fucking stupid all of this (and the GOP) is.

Longer form on the topic:
www.brennancenter.org

How the President Is Misusing Emergency Powers to Impose Worldwide Tariffs

Concocting an emergency to advance economic and foreign policy goals is an abuse of power.
www.brennancenter.org www.brennancenter.org
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Related to the above:
 
Irish#1

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Trump has put a 90 day pause on the tariffs.

Edit: Looks like ab2 hit the enter key a nano second before me. lol

This article from investing.com was written prior to Trumps announcement.
Investing.com -- Amazon.com Inc (NASDAQ:AMZN). has stopped orders for various products manufactured in China and other Asian nations. This move is seen as an effort by the company to lessen its vulnerability to tariffs established by President Donald Trump, according to a document examined by Bloomberg and sources familiar with the situation.

The order cancellations for beach chairs, scooters, air conditioners, and other goods from numerous Amazon vendors came after Trump’s April 2 declaration of his intention to impose tariffs on more than 180 countries and territories. The list of affected regions includes China, Vietnam, and Thailand. The abrupt nature of these cancellations led vendors to believe it was a reaction to the tariffs.

The extent of the cancellations and the variety of merchandise impacted remain unclear. A vendor who has supplied beach chairs made in China to Amazon for over ten years received an email from the company last week. The email, which was examined by Bloomberg, stated that Amazon was cancelling some purchase orders it had made "in error" and asked the vendor not to dispatch them. The email did not refer to tariffs.
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C

ColoradoIrish

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What a shit show. Absolutely no plan at all for this. And we the people are going to suffer tremendously because of it
 
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