National Championship and BCS scenarios

[SoCalDomer]

The BCS rankings were released for week 14. It appears the top three teams have the greatest chance of going to the big game.

1. Missouri - plays OK in the Big12 title game
2. West Virginia - plays last reg season game vs Pitt
3. Ohio State - no further games
4. Georgia - no further games
5. Kansas - no further games
6. Virginia Tech - plays BC in the ACC title game
7. LSU - plays Tenn in the SEC title game
8. USC - plays UCLA for last reg season game
9. Oklahoma - plays Mizz in the Big 12 title
10. Florida - no further games

OSU will have to hope one of the two teams above it lose, and has a better chance of it being Missouri, who plays Oklahoma for the Big 12 title. OK did beat Missouri when they met in the reg season. It is far less likely WV loses to Pitt, barring the bus driver getting lost, resulting in a forfeit.

In order for Georgia to have a shot, both WV and Missouri would have to lose. OSU and GA could move up to the #1 and #2 spots, and GA (who was #2 in the SEC east and didn't even play in the conf championship) would go the big game over LSU and Tenn, one of whom will be the SEC champion. (That's why every conf should adopt the 10-team, everyone plays everyone set-up like the Pac-10; the SEC screwed themselves yet again.)

Kansas probably doesn't have a chance since they don't play again this year and they would somehow have to jump GA and OSU in the event of WV and Mizz losses. Plus, a lower team who does play could pass them with an impressive win.

VA Tech and LSU will play in their title games, but would have to put a serious beat down on their opponents to jump over the teams who have no remaining games and Mizz and WV would have to lose.

USC, OK and Florida all seem out of it, regardless of how USC fares against UCLA or how OK fares against Mizz.

I would almost prefer a Missouri v WV matchup with two teams from the less than "all powerful" conferences, leaving out the almighty SEC and the Univ of Sexualy Contageous [diseases].

 

[SouthernIrish]

I want to see WVU play Ohio State because I LOVE WVU and I HATE Ohio State. It would be perfect to see Pat White and Steve Slaton and that freshman whatever his name is run all over the Buckeyes.

I just don't think I can get a good hate factor going with Missouri.

 

[SoCalDomer]

That seems possible, since WV is more likley to win its game than Mizz.

I guess I wouldn't mind that, since OSU back in the game would be like peeing in the ESPN breakroom coffee pot.

I don't think OSU would fair well either, since the Big 10 teams had trouble with the spread option offenses in the past.

 

[SouthernIrish]

Gotta root for the team that is cashing my checks! Go Out of State Tuition WVU!!!

 

[notredomer23]

Missou is winning it all folks

 

[GoshenGipper]

Perhaps for the first time all season, the national championship race can be explained very simply.

If No. 1 Missouri (vs. Oklahoma) and No. 2 West Virginia (vs. Pittsburgh) both win on Saturday, they will play each other for the BCS title. If one of them loses, No. 3 Ohio State will slide into the national championship game. If Missouri and West Virginia both lose, a two-loss team will probably meet the Buckeyes in New Orleans for all the marbles.

It seems unlikely that West Virginia will lose at home against Pitt, but if it happens, choosing which two-loss team belongs in the national title game will be a difficult assignment for the voters.

No. 4 Georgia is the highest-ranked twice-beaten team in the standings this week, but that might change next week if it matters who's atop the two-loss heap. Because the Bulldogs didn't win their division of the SEC, it's doubtful voters would put them into a BCS championship slot, especially if another two-loss team (LSU) emerges as the conference champion.

Even though LSU is currently ranked behind Virginia Tech, the Tigers would likely move ahead of the Hokies (only if the No. 2 BCS spot is open) because of their 41-point win against them in September. If Tennessee wins the SEC, Tech might be able to sneak into the picture, assuming it wins the ACC title.

Oklahoma could also make a case after knocking off top-ranked Missouri. USC, however, seems to have way too far to climb with only a game against unranked UCLA left on the schedule.

Obviously, there's a one-loss team that hasn't yet been mentioned. Kansas sits at No. 5 in this week's BCS standings, but the Jayhawks are also a long shot, since they have neither a division title nor a win over any team currently ranked in the top 25.

My best guess: If Missouri and West Virginia both lose on Saturday, LSU backs into the title game with a win in the SEC championship.

The At-Large Spots
In the clubhouse at 10-2 without a conference title, Georgia seems to be a lock to finish either third or fourth in the BCS standings, which would assure the Bulldogs of receiving one of the four at-large bids to the BCS.

If Ohio State moves into the national title game, that will vacate the Big Ten champion's spot in the Rose Bowl, and with Illinois likely to become eligible (if either Tennessee or Boston College loses on Saturday) for an at-large spot, the Big Ten could unexpectedly get a second team into the BCS.

If Arizona State can beat Arizona this week and finish 10-2, the Sun Devils will certainly be an attractive option for the hometown Fiesta Bowl. Kansas should also receive strong consideration from the Fiesta.

And then there's Hawaii. The big win over Boise State vaulted the Warriors three spots into the coveted No. 12 position, which means they should earn an automatic bid to the BCS by closing the season with a win over Washington. The only scenario that could potentially push Hawaii back out of the top 12 would be for BC, Tennessee and Arizona State all to win this weekend.

Now let's explore the possibilities for the BCS matchups. For the sake of simplifying this process, we'll assume there are no upsets on Saturday. The only variable is the Big 12 championship game.

Projected BCS Matchups (If Missouri beats Oklahoma)
Allstate BCS National Championship Game
Missouri (Big 12 champ) vs. West Virginia (Big East champ)
The Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi
Ohio State (Big Ten champ) vs. USC (Pac-10 champ)
FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Georgia (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Kansas (at-large) vs. Arizona State (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl
LSU (SEC champ) vs. Hawaii (at-large)

Projected BCS Matchups (If Oklahoma beats Missouri)
Allstate BCS National Championship Game
West Virginia (Big East champ) vs. Ohio State (Big Ten champ)
The Rose Bowl Game presented by Citi
USC (Pac-10 champ) vs. Illinois (at-large)
FedEx Orange Bowl
Virginia Tech (ACC champ) vs. Georgia (at-large)
Tostitos Fiesta Bowl
Oklahoma (Big 12 champ) vs. Arizona State (at-large)
Allstate Sugar Bowl
LSU (SEC champ) vs. Hawaii (at-large)

It seemed for the past four weeks that the Big 12 was certain to get a second team into the BCS, but the loss by Texas presents a scenario in which an Oklahoma victory in the conference title game could cost the Big 12 a BCS at-large spot. If the Rose Bowl has to replace Ohio State and chooses Illinois to do so, the lone Big 12 hope might be for the Fiesta to set up a "conference game" between Oklahoma and Kansas, which isn't as ridiculous as it sounds since the two didn't meet in the regular season.

After all, ridiculous seems to be all the rage in college football this year.

.

 

[NWLB]

Mazzou will lose, if not to OK, than in the title game. They are coached by a former University of Toledo coach, and with all things Toledo, nothing good can come of that.

 

[Sureal]

No. We don't need a plus one.

 

[goldandblue]

why the z's in mizz??

 

[SoCalDomer]

The bowl matchups present more variables than the NC possibilities.

USC is not guaranteed the Pac-10 title. They still need to play UCLA. While it seems unlikely the koala Bears (b/c of the crazy way they're playing this year) can upset the Prophylactics, it was just as unlikely last year. If ASU wins it's game against Arizona and USC loses, ASU goes to the rosebowl.

If both USC and ASU lose and Oregon wins it's final game against Oregon State, there would be a three way tie in the Pac-10, but that would be broken by OR having beat ASU and USC head to head, and OR would be the Pac-10 champ.

I don't know enough about the other conferences (or care) to break down all those variables. Living in USC territory just makes me want to chear for UCLA, ASU and Oregon this weekend.

 

[gallup21]

Mizzou isn't exactly bad. For anyone who watched the KU Nebraska game or heard about it, and then watched Mizzou dominate most of the KU Mizzou game, I'd say Chase Daniel should be in the top 3 in the heisman voting. His teams winning, and hes playing QB better then anyone in the country next to Tebow

 

[goldandblue]

I believe Tebow is the man to beat this year. I'd like to see Mcfadden get it but don't think it'll happen with the Razorbacks record.

 

[SoCalDomer]

why the z's in mizz??

Just for giggles I guess.