G
goldenlid
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Good games so far. I'm winning in my office pool so far, just need duke to lose.
Irish Envy's March Madness
- Thread starter GoshenGipper
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I
IrishGirl10
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I am doing some online and I am not doing very well! 
Vince Young
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Well, whaddya know... Bob Knight lost. Again.
Of course, one of my Sweet 16 teams, Duke, is out too.
Of course, one of my Sweet 16 teams, Duke, is out too.
notredomer23
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I had Duke out. VCU is gonna beat pitt too
notredomer23
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you picked winthrop?
notredomer23
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north texas 16- memphis 11
Vince Young
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Alrighty, here's the standings as of the end of the first round:
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 tie. irishdodger ........... 260 . 1620
1 tie. Armano 1 .............. 260 . 1620
3 .... Steveo2 ............... 260 . 1560
4 .... matt_99 ............... 250 . 1610
5 .... onenybrother .......... 250 . 1590
6 .... leprechaun4life ....... 250 . 1570
7 .... GoshenGipper .......... 250 . 1550
8 .... Magoteaux 1 ........... 250 . 1510
9 .... brennan 1 ............. 240 . 1600
10 ... NDFan78 ............... 240 . 1580
11 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 240 . 1500
12 tie RichardRiot ........... 230 . 1570
12 tie Pham 1 ................ 230 . 1570
12 tie Uncle 1 ............... 230 . 1570
15 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 230 . 1540
16 tie goirish#1 ............. 230 . 1530
16 tie phillips 2 ............ 230 . 1530
18 tie stonebreakerwasgod .... 230 . 1510
18 tie Mingea III 1 .......... 230 . 1510
20 ... Jones 1 ............... 230 . 1490
21 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 230 . 1470
22 tie Kickerbg31 ............ 220 . 1500
22 tie Texas Tech always loses 220 . 1500
22 tie ojo_223 ............... 220 . 1500
25 ... Akron Irish ........... 220 . 1480
26 ... willey 1 .............. 220 . 1420
27 ... Stark 1 ............... 210 . 1570
28 ... Jensen 1 .............. 210 . 1470
29 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 210 . 1450
30 ... Klang 1 ............... 190 . 1490
31 ... jones 1 ............... 180 . 1360
There's a tie at the top between irishdodger (with Georgetown winning it all) and Armano 1 (with North Carolina going all the way). Both took some hits in the first round, but all of their Sweet 16 picks are still alive and well. Steveo2 has the same number of points right now as well, but his Maximum Possible Score (MPS) is lower thanks to his selection of Notre Dame as an Elite 8 team. His 15 other picks for the Sweet 16 are still in, however, so he's still in good shape.
The "Shred Me Now" award for this round goes to jones 1/r. jones (not to be confused with Jones 1/K. Jones). Not only is his upset-heavy bracket at the bottom, but 7 of his Sweet 16 are already dead! Picking Notre Dame for the Elite 8 isn't helping him much either.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
There weren't as many upsets this year in the opening round, so if you had just made your picks strictly by seeding alone, you'd be sitting at 270 points right now with a 1630 MPS and your entire Sweet 16 still intact. Our two leaders are currently at 260/1620, so although a bracket strictly by seeding would be pretty boring, it would also be in the lead right now!
Going by Sagarin's Power Rankings would have worked pretty well so far as well, with a score of 270. However, Sagarin had Notre Dame ranked higher than both Winthrop AND Oregon and thus would've put them in the Sweet 16. That knocks Sagarin's MPS down to 1610, but score-wise Sagarin would still be ahead of our current leaders. Sagarin's bracket is fairly vanilla: it predicted wins for a 9-seed and two 10-seeds, and stuck with the seeding for everything else. Indeed Sagarin only has two other twists left: #6 Notre Dame over #3 Oregon (which can't happen now), and #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia. The rest is straight-seeding, with North Carolina winning it all.
Going by a combination of the USA Today and AP polls gets good results so far as well: 260 points, a 1620 MPS and a completely intact Sweet 16. That's good for a tie with our leaders. This bracket is even more vanilla than Sagarin's, with only a single 9 over an 8, #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia, and straight-seeding the rest of the way with Ohio State cutting down the nets at the end.
And finally, there's good ol' RPI. Interestingly enough, going by RPI actually resulted in a couple of upset predictions: #12 Illinois over #5 Virginia Tech (which almost happened!), and #12 Arkansas over #5 USC (not even close). RPI also picked a 10 over a 7. The upsets didn't pan out, so RPI is down at 240 points and a 1600 MPS, but the RPI's Sweet 16 is still totally intact. RPI also predicts #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia, but the rest is also straight-seeding, with Ohio State taking the title.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 270 . 1630
2 .... Sagarin's power ranking 270 . 1610
3 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 260 . 1620
4 .... RPI ................... 240 . 1600
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 tie. irishdodger ........... 260 . 1620
1 tie. Armano 1 .............. 260 . 1620
3 .... Steveo2 ............... 260 . 1560
4 .... matt_99 ............... 250 . 1610
5 .... onenybrother .......... 250 . 1590
6 .... leprechaun4life ....... 250 . 1570
7 .... GoshenGipper .......... 250 . 1550
8 .... Magoteaux 1 ........... 250 . 1510
9 .... brennan 1 ............. 240 . 1600
10 ... NDFan78 ............... 240 . 1580
11 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 240 . 1500
12 tie RichardRiot ........... 230 . 1570
12 tie Pham 1 ................ 230 . 1570
12 tie Uncle 1 ............... 230 . 1570
15 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 230 . 1540
16 tie goirish#1 ............. 230 . 1530
16 tie phillips 2 ............ 230 . 1530
18 tie stonebreakerwasgod .... 230 . 1510
18 tie Mingea III 1 .......... 230 . 1510
20 ... Jones 1 ............... 230 . 1490
21 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 230 . 1470
22 tie Kickerbg31 ............ 220 . 1500
22 tie Texas Tech always loses 220 . 1500
22 tie ojo_223 ............... 220 . 1500
25 ... Akron Irish ........... 220 . 1480
26 ... willey 1 .............. 220 . 1420
27 ... Stark 1 ............... 210 . 1570
28 ... Jensen 1 .............. 210 . 1470
29 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 210 . 1450
30 ... Klang 1 ............... 190 . 1490
31 ... jones 1 ............... 180 . 1360
There's a tie at the top between irishdodger (with Georgetown winning it all) and Armano 1 (with North Carolina going all the way). Both took some hits in the first round, but all of their Sweet 16 picks are still alive and well. Steveo2 has the same number of points right now as well, but his Maximum Possible Score (MPS) is lower thanks to his selection of Notre Dame as an Elite 8 team. His 15 other picks for the Sweet 16 are still in, however, so he's still in good shape.
The "Shred Me Now" award for this round goes to jones 1/r. jones (not to be confused with Jones 1/K. Jones). Not only is his upset-heavy bracket at the bottom, but 7 of his Sweet 16 are already dead! Picking Notre Dame for the Elite 8 isn't helping him much either.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
There weren't as many upsets this year in the opening round, so if you had just made your picks strictly by seeding alone, you'd be sitting at 270 points right now with a 1630 MPS and your entire Sweet 16 still intact. Our two leaders are currently at 260/1620, so although a bracket strictly by seeding would be pretty boring, it would also be in the lead right now!
Going by Sagarin's Power Rankings would have worked pretty well so far as well, with a score of 270. However, Sagarin had Notre Dame ranked higher than both Winthrop AND Oregon and thus would've put them in the Sweet 16. That knocks Sagarin's MPS down to 1610, but score-wise Sagarin would still be ahead of our current leaders. Sagarin's bracket is fairly vanilla: it predicted wins for a 9-seed and two 10-seeds, and stuck with the seeding for everything else. Indeed Sagarin only has two other twists left: #6 Notre Dame over #3 Oregon (which can't happen now), and #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia. The rest is straight-seeding, with North Carolina winning it all.
Going by a combination of the USA Today and AP polls gets good results so far as well: 260 points, a 1620 MPS and a completely intact Sweet 16. That's good for a tie with our leaders. This bracket is even more vanilla than Sagarin's, with only a single 9 over an 8, #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia, and straight-seeding the rest of the way with Ohio State cutting down the nets at the end.
And finally, there's good ol' RPI. Interestingly enough, going by RPI actually resulted in a couple of upset predictions: #12 Illinois over #5 Virginia Tech (which almost happened!), and #12 Arkansas over #5 USC (not even close). RPI also picked a 10 over a 7. The upsets didn't pan out, so RPI is down at 240 points and a 1600 MPS, but the RPI's Sweet 16 is still totally intact. RPI also predicts #5 Tennessee over #4 Virginia, but the rest is also straight-seeding, with Ohio State taking the title.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 270 . 1630
2 .... Sagarin's power ranking 270 . 1610
3 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 260 . 1620
4 .... RPI ................... 240 . 1600
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
R
RichardRiot
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Although I have OSU getting to the Champ game, I am probably getting pretty close to toast anyways. Therefore, my heart is breaking while I watch the Bucks 'sink like wet cement' as they fall 11 behind Xav...
R
RichardRiot
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Wasn't sure if I wanted to see OSU come back or not (helps my bracket, but they are one of those schools that I am beginning to despise). This was not unlike this year's NC game:
watching Florida hammer OSU, I'm thinking "I hate the Buckeyes, so this is good. But, I may be hating Florida right now even more". This shit is playing with my mind.....all I can think is, "where's that blimp from Black Sunday?""""
R
RichardRiot
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Wow, 'My Cousin Vinny' has got his team rolling against A&M.....
Vince Young
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Alrighty, here's the standings going into the Sweet 16:
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS... Last Rank
------------------------------------------------------
1 .... irishdodger ........... 520 . 1600 . 1 tie
2 .... matt_99 ............... 490 . 1550 . 4
3 tie. brennan 1 ............. 480 . 1500 . 9
3 tie. NDFan78 ............... 480 . 1500 . 10
5 .... GoshenGipper .......... 470 . 1510 . 7
6 .... Steveo2 ............... 460 . 1500 . 3
7 .... Armano 1 .............. 460 . 1460 . 1 tie
8 .... Pham 1 ................ 450 . 1530 . 12 tie
9 tie. Magoteaux 1 ........... 450 . 1470 . 8
9 tie. RichardRiot ........... 450 . 1470 . 12 tie
11 ... Uncle 1 ............... 450 . 1410 . 12 tie
12 ... leprechaun4life ....... 450 . 1270 . 6
13 ... ojo_223 ............... 440 . 1480 . 22 tie
14 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 440 . 1380 . 11
15 ... onenybrother .......... 430 . 1450 . 5
16 ... Mingea III 1 .......... 430 . 1430 . 18 tie
17 ... Stark 1 ............... 410 . 1490 . 27
18 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 410 . 1410 . 15
19 tie goirish#1 ............. 410 . 1350 . 16 tie
19 tie Klang 1 ............... 410 . 1350 . 30
21 ... Jensen 1 .............. 410 . 1310 . 28
22 ... phillips 2 ............ 410 . 1210 . 16 tie
23 ... Kickerbg31 ............ 400 . 1440 . 22 tie
24 ... Texas Tech always loses 400 . 1380 . 22 tie
25 ... Akron Irish ........... 400 . 1340 . 25
26 ... willey 1 .............. 400 . 1320 . 26
27 tie stonebreakerwasgod .... 390 . 1430 . 18 tie
27 tie Jones 1 ............... 390 . 1430 . 20
29 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 390 . 1390 . 21
30 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 390 . 1370 . 29
31 ... jones 1 ............... 320 . 1320 . 31
So, who had UNLV beating Wisconsin? irishdodger did, and that's a big reason why he's moved into sole possession of first place. Armano 1 had UNLV beating Wisconsin as well, but he also had Boston College and Louisville in the Elite 8, and instead both teams fell short of even reaching the Sweet 16. Armano in-turn dropped from a 1st-place tie down to 7th. In the meantime, matt_99 moved into 2nd place with 12 of the Sweet 16 correct and all of his Elite 8 still alive. And brennan 1 and NDFan78 both made huge jumps up to a tie for 3rd, though both of them are already missing 2 of their Elite 8.
The "Shred Me Now" award for this round goes to leprechaun4life. This weekend was not kind to him... Lep had Texas in the Elite 8 and Wisconsin in the title game, and instead both teams crashed and burned. So did Lep's bracket. He dropped from 6th to 12th and will likely drop more due to his Maximum Possible Score (MPS) dropping to 1270.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. I won't bother with detailed analysis this time, because from here on out the only method that has any twists left to it is RPI. By RPI, Southern Illinois is supposed to upset Kansas to reach the Elite 8 to clear the way for UCLA to reach the title game (which can still happen), while Wisconsin was supposed to reach the Final 4 by upsetting Florida (which of course can no longer happen). No other upsets are predicted, so I'll just give you the straight numbers.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 500 . 1500
2 tie. Straight seeding ...... 490 . 1490
2 tie. Sagarin's power ranking 490 . 1490
4 .... RPI ................... 480 . 1400
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS... Last Rank
------------------------------------------------------
1 .... irishdodger ........... 520 . 1600 . 1 tie
2 .... matt_99 ............... 490 . 1550 . 4
3 tie. brennan 1 ............. 480 . 1500 . 9
3 tie. NDFan78 ............... 480 . 1500 . 10
5 .... GoshenGipper .......... 470 . 1510 . 7
6 .... Steveo2 ............... 460 . 1500 . 3
7 .... Armano 1 .............. 460 . 1460 . 1 tie
8 .... Pham 1 ................ 450 . 1530 . 12 tie
9 tie. Magoteaux 1 ........... 450 . 1470 . 8
9 tie. RichardRiot ........... 450 . 1470 . 12 tie
11 ... Uncle 1 ............... 450 . 1410 . 12 tie
12 ... leprechaun4life ....... 450 . 1270 . 6
13 ... ojo_223 ............... 440 . 1480 . 22 tie
14 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 440 . 1380 . 11
15 ... onenybrother .......... 430 . 1450 . 5
16 ... Mingea III 1 .......... 430 . 1430 . 18 tie
17 ... Stark 1 ............... 410 . 1490 . 27
18 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 410 . 1410 . 15
19 tie goirish#1 ............. 410 . 1350 . 16 tie
19 tie Klang 1 ............... 410 . 1350 . 30
21 ... Jensen 1 .............. 410 . 1310 . 28
22 ... phillips 2 ............ 410 . 1210 . 16 tie
23 ... Kickerbg31 ............ 400 . 1440 . 22 tie
24 ... Texas Tech always loses 400 . 1380 . 22 tie
25 ... Akron Irish ........... 400 . 1340 . 25
26 ... willey 1 .............. 400 . 1320 . 26
27 tie stonebreakerwasgod .... 390 . 1430 . 18 tie
27 tie Jones 1 ............... 390 . 1430 . 20
29 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 390 . 1390 . 21
30 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 390 . 1370 . 29
31 ... jones 1 ............... 320 . 1320 . 31
So, who had UNLV beating Wisconsin?
irishdodger did, and that's a big reason why he's moved into sole possession of first place. Armano 1 had UNLV beating Wisconsin as well, but he also had Boston College and Louisville in the Elite 8, and instead both teams fell short of even reaching the Sweet 16. Armano in-turn dropped from a 1st-place tie down to 7th. In the meantime, matt_99 moved into 2nd place with 12 of the Sweet 16 correct and all of his Elite 8 still alive. And brennan 1 and NDFan78 both made huge jumps up to a tie for 3rd, though both of them are already missing 2 of their Elite 8.The "Shred Me Now" award for this round goes to leprechaun4life. This weekend was not kind to him... Lep had Texas in the Elite 8 and Wisconsin in the title game, and instead both teams crashed and burned. So did Lep's bracket. He dropped from 6th to 12th and will likely drop more due to his Maximum Possible Score (MPS) dropping to 1270.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. I won't bother with detailed analysis this time, because from here on out the only method that has any twists left to it is RPI. By RPI, Southern Illinois is supposed to upset Kansas to reach the Elite 8 to clear the way for UCLA to reach the title game (which can still happen), while Wisconsin was supposed to reach the Final 4 by upsetting Florida (which of course can no longer happen). No other upsets are predicted, so I'll just give you the straight numbers.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 500 . 1500
2 tie. Straight seeding ...... 490 . 1490
2 tie. Sagarin's power ranking 490 . 1490
4 .... RPI ................... 480 . 1400
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
stonebreakerwasgod
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Eat my shorts, all of you! Was it my fault my wife picked my brackets based on the colors?
notredomer23
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notice how im in last.... lol i pick to many upsets
Vince Young
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Yes. Yes it was your fault. Never pick a woman to do a man's job.
stonebreakerwasgod
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LOL I wish it were true, at least I wouldn't be embarrased....too much.
R
RichardRiot
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Ahh, you shouldn't be too embarrassed.....you're only in 27th!!! On the ESPN ranking you're probably in 2.7Millionth....
Vince Young
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Hey, I'm only 10 points ahead of you myself. No worries.
But hey, at least I picked right with Texas Tech, eh?
notredomer23
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at least i picked right with Wisconsin and Florida in the first round. I only have 3 final 4 picks still alive, UCLA, Florida, and Texas AM. Texas was elimanted
leprechaun4life
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But hey, at least I picked right with Texas Tech, eh?
Rome wasn't built in a day, it probably took, like, eight years. So, Knight has two more years, possibly three to four.
Vince Young
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Oh, it's all because he's having to build Texas Tech up from scratch, eh?
So... what was Bob Knight's excuse at Indiana from 1994 through 2000? Was he "building Rome" then too?
2007: Lost in the 1st round.
2006: Didn't make the tourney at all.
2005: Lost in the Sweet 16.
2004: Lost in the 2nd round.
2003: Didn't make the tourney at all.
2002: Lost in the 1st round... to an 11-seed.
2001: Was not coaching at all for this tourney.
2000: Lost in the 1st round... to an 11-seed... by 20 points.
1999: Lost in the 2nd round.
1998: Lost in the 2nd round.
1997: Lost in the 1st round... by 18 points.
1996: Lost in the 1st round... to an 11-seed... by 13 points.
1995: Lost in the 1st round.
1994: Lost in the Sweet 16.
1993: Lost in the Elite 8.
1992: Lost in the Final 4.
Research is so pesky, ain't it?
Bob Knight's last championship was in 1987.
Knight's last Final 4 appearance was in 1992.
His last Elite 8 appearance was in 1993.
Since then, he compiled a stellar 4-7 tourney record in his last 7 years at Indiana, and has followed it up with a breathtaking 3-4 tourney record in 6 years at Texas Tech.
Since his last Elite 8 trip, his tourney record has been 7-11.
Since his last Elite 8 trip, Bob Knight has had 6 1st-round losses. 3 of those 6 were by double-digits. 2 of those 3 were to 11-seeds.
And I haven't even mentioned any of his behavioral issues over the years.
Oh, but Bob Knight gets his players to graduate and runs a disciplined team, right? And he's the only coach ever in the entire history of college basketball to accomplish this. (*cough* Billy Donavan *cough* Roy Williams *cough* Mike Brey *cough* Coach K *cough* Rick Pitino *cough* Tubby Smith *cough* Digger Phelps *cough*) Pardon me for the coughing fit there. I think I need to go get some Ricolas.
To borrow someone else's catch-phrase from the ancient history of IE, my heart pumps piss for Bob Knight.
notredomer23
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Bob knight is the tye willingham of basketball. He has one good to decent year and then he does horrible.
Freeman Ara
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I think the biggest problem with Knight is that he isn't really looking to win titles anymore. I think right now he has reached a point where he just wants to get good solid kids, that he knows he can teach and not have to deal with all the crap that comes with prima donna HS kids. I believe he has basically said that he doesn't like recruiting the elite kids anymore. He loves the teaching aspects of the jobmoe then anything else, and now that he is in Lubbock he doesn't have the pressure of Hoosier nation to deal with. Trust me I don't think TT will ever run him out, he has improved that team so much that I think they are happy with him just making that program a "winner".
Vince Young
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Alrighty, I missed my window to update the rankings going into the Elite 8, but I might as well do this now. Here's the pool rankings halfway through the Elite 8 round. Ohio State and UCLA are in the Final 4, and on Sunday we'll see Florida vs. Oregon and North Carolina vs. Georgetown.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS... Status
---------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Pham 1 ................ 930 . 1490 . can still win
2 .... matt_99 ............... 890 . 1170 . can still win
3 .... irishdodger ........... 880 . 1440 . can still win
4 .... RichardRiot ........... 850 . 1410 . can still win
5 .... leprechaun4life ....... 850 . 1210 . eliminated
6 .... stonebreakerwasgod .... 830 . 1390 . can still win
7 .... Magoteaux 1 ........... 810 . 1090 . eliminated
8 .... onenybrother .......... 790 . 1270 . can still win
9 .... Armano 1 .............. 780 . 1340 . can still win
10 ... Uncle 1 ............... 770 . 1250 . would need tiebreaker
11 ... Kickerbg31 ............ 760 . 1320 . can still win
12 ... ojo_223 ............... 760 . 1320 . would need tiebreaker
13 ... brennan 1 ............. 760 . 1040 . eliminated
14 ... GoshenGipper .......... 750 . 1310 . eliminated
15 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 720 . 1080 . eliminated
16 ... NDFan78 ............... 720 . 1000 . eliminated
17 ... goirish#1 ............. 690 . .... . (not analyzed)
18 ... Jensen 1 .............. 690 . .970 . eliminated
19 ... Texas Tech always loses 680 . 1240 . eliminated
20 ... Akron Irish ........... 680 . .... . (not analyzed)
21 ... Jones 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
22 ... Klang 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
23 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
24 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 630 . 1190 . eliminated
25 ... Steveo2 ............... 620 . .980 . eliminated
26 ... Stark 1 ............... 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
27 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
28 ... jones 1 ............... 600 . .... . (not analyzed)
29 ... Mingea III 1 .......... 590 . .... . (not analyzed)
30 ... phillips 2 ............ 570 . .... . (not analyzed)
31 ... willey 1 .............. 560 . .... . (not analyzed)
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
I've done some scenario analysis. There are WAY too many scenarios to go into detail about here, but 2 of the top 12, leprechaun4life and Magoteaux 1, are already eliminated. Their remaining brackets are too similar to those of people above them, leaving them no room to play catch-up. They can still finish quite high, but taking 1st place is impossible for them. And Uncle 1 and ojo_223 are both on thin-ice: they can still win, but EVERYTHING has to go their way just to force a tie for 1st with someone else in the end, in which case they'd have to win by a tie-breaker. But quite a few people are still in it, thanks to the diversity of the remaining brackets at the top.
Of very special interest are the brackets of both stonebreakerwasgod and onenybrother. They both plummetted in the early going with a lot of 1st- and 2nd-round misses, but they've battled back by virtue of their picks in the later rounds. It just goes to show you how important the later rounds can be.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. The RPI method was the only method with any twists left to it. Southern Illinois was supposed to upset Kansas; that didn't happen. But then UCLA was supposed to beat Southern Illinois, and UCLA DID win after all, upsetting Kansas. All of the other default methods had Kansas picked to win that game, so that gave RPI a boost and pushed them to the top. (The Kansas loss REALLY hurt the Poll method, which had Kansas getting to the championship game!) However, RPI also had Wisconsin upsetting Florida, which can't happen, so the other methods can still gain that ground back on Sunday if Florida beats Oregon. All 4 methods have North Carolina over Georgetown, so there's nothing to be gained there. But all 4 of the default methods would be near the top compared to the human competitors here!
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... RPI ................... 880 . 1360
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 860 . 1300
3 tie. Straight seeding ...... 850 . 1410
3 tie. Sagarin's power ranking 850 . 1410
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS... Status
---------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Pham 1 ................ 930 . 1490 . can still win
2 .... matt_99 ............... 890 . 1170 . can still win
3 .... irishdodger ........... 880 . 1440 . can still win
4 .... RichardRiot ........... 850 . 1410 . can still win
5 .... leprechaun4life ....... 850 . 1210 . eliminated
6 .... stonebreakerwasgod .... 830 . 1390 . can still win
7 .... Magoteaux 1 ........... 810 . 1090 . eliminated
8 .... onenybrother .......... 790 . 1270 . can still win
9 .... Armano 1 .............. 780 . 1340 . can still win
10 ... Uncle 1 ............... 770 . 1250 . would need tiebreaker
11 ... Kickerbg31 ............ 760 . 1320 . can still win
12 ... ojo_223 ............... 760 . 1320 . would need tiebreaker
13 ... brennan 1 ............. 760 . 1040 . eliminated
14 ... GoshenGipper .......... 750 . 1310 . eliminated
15 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 720 . 1080 . eliminated
16 ... NDFan78 ............... 720 . 1000 . eliminated
17 ... goirish#1 ............. 690 . .... . (not analyzed)
18 ... Jensen 1 .............. 690 . .970 . eliminated
19 ... Texas Tech always loses 680 . 1240 . eliminated
20 ... Akron Irish ........... 680 . .... . (not analyzed)
21 ... Jones 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
22 ... Klang 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
23 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
24 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 630 . 1190 . eliminated
25 ... Steveo2 ............... 620 . .980 . eliminated
26 ... Stark 1 ............... 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
27 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
28 ... jones 1 ............... 600 . .... . (not analyzed)
29 ... Mingea III 1 .......... 590 . .... . (not analyzed)
30 ... phillips 2 ............ 570 . .... . (not analyzed)
31 ... willey 1 .............. 560 . .... . (not analyzed)
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
I've done some scenario analysis. There are WAY too many scenarios to go into detail about here, but 2 of the top 12, leprechaun4life and Magoteaux 1, are already eliminated. Their remaining brackets are too similar to those of people above them, leaving them no room to play catch-up. They can still finish quite high, but taking 1st place is impossible for them. And Uncle 1 and ojo_223 are both on thin-ice: they can still win, but EVERYTHING has to go their way just to force a tie for 1st with someone else in the end, in which case they'd have to win by a tie-breaker. But quite a few people are still in it, thanks to the diversity of the remaining brackets at the top.
Of very special interest are the brackets of both stonebreakerwasgod and onenybrother. They both plummetted in the early going with a lot of 1st- and 2nd-round misses, but they've battled back by virtue of their picks in the later rounds. It just goes to show you how important the later rounds can be.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. The RPI method was the only method with any twists left to it. Southern Illinois was supposed to upset Kansas; that didn't happen. But then UCLA was supposed to beat Southern Illinois, and UCLA DID win after all, upsetting Kansas. All of the other default methods had Kansas picked to win that game, so that gave RPI a boost and pushed them to the top. (The Kansas loss REALLY hurt the Poll method, which had Kansas getting to the championship game!) However, RPI also had Wisconsin upsetting Florida, which can't happen, so the other methods can still gain that ground back on Sunday if Florida beats Oregon. All 4 methods have North Carolina over Georgetown, so there's nothing to be gained there. But all 4 of the default methods would be near the top compared to the human competitors here!
Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... RPI ................... 880 . 1360
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 860 . 1300
3 tie. Straight seeding ...... 850 . 1410
3 tie. Sagarin's power ranking 850 . 1410
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
Last edited:
Vince Young
New member
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Alrighty, here's the standings heading into the Final 4:
### Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Status . Final picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1 . matt_99 ............... 1050 . 1170 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
2 . irishdodger ........... 1040 . 1440 . IN ..... G'town over Fla
3 . RichardRiot ........... 1010 . 1410 . IN ..... OSU over UCLA
4 . Pham 1 ................ 1010 . 1290 . IN ..... UCLA over NC
5 . Magoteaux 1 ........... .970 . 1090 . OUT .... Memphis over UCLA
6 . leprechaun4life ....... .930 . 1210 . OUT .... G'town over Wis
7t. Kickerbg31 ............ .920 . 1320 . IN ..... OSU over Fla
7t. ojo_223 ............... .920 . 1320 . IN ..... G'town over UCLA
9 . brennan 1 ............. .920 . 1040 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
10. stonebreakerwasgod .... .910 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
11. GoshenGipper .......... .910 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
12. NDFan78 ............... .880 . 1000 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
13. onenybrother .......... .870 . 1270 . IN ..... Fla over OSU
14. Armano 1 .............. .860 . .980 . OUT .... NC over Fla
15. Texas Tech always loses .840 . 1240 . OUT .... Fla over OSU
16. Jones 1 ............... .830 . 1230 . OUT .... UCLA over G'town
17. IrishRamMan10 ......... .830 . .950 . OUT .... Tex A&M over Fla
18. Clausen2Kamara ........ .800 . 1080 . OUT .... Fla over Tex A&M
19. AZIRISHFAN ............ .790 . 1190 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
20t goirish#1 ............. .770 . 1170 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
20t Stark 1 ............... .770 . 1170 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
22. Uncle 1 ............... .770 . .890 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
23t Klang 1 ............... .750 . .870 . OUT .... Pitt over G'town
23t Mingea III 1 .......... .750 . .870 . OUT .... Kan over G'town
25. Steveo2 ............... .700 . .980 . OUT .... G'town over Kan
26. Jensen 1 .............. .690 . .970 . OUT .... OSU over Kan
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690 . .690 . OUT .... Kan over NC
28. jones 1 ............... .680 . .960 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
29. Akron Irish ........... .680 . .800 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
30. willey 1 .............. .640 . .640 . OUT .... NC over Pitt
31. phillips 2 ............ .570 . .850 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
Only 6 people still have a chance to win. Interestingly enough, the current leader, matt_99, cannot finish in first no matter what happens. Matt had Kansas picked to go all the way, and while he can still pick up another 120 points from Ohio State, every possible scenario will result in someone having more points than Matt in the end.
Here's the scenarios:
If UCLA wins out, Pham 1 is the winner.
If the title game is between Florida and Georgetown, it doesn't matter who wins the game, because irishdodger would be the winner in either case.
If Ohio State defeats UCLA for the title, RichardRiot wins.
If Ohio State defeats Florida for the title, Kickerbg31 wins.
If Florida defeats Ohio State for the title, onenybrother wins.
And finally, if Georgetown defeats UCLA for the title, irishdodger and ojo_223 will finish in a tie, and the tiebreaker will be needed to determine the winner.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
All 4 default methods started out quite strong against the human selections, but all 4 default methods are beginning to fade out as we head into the Final 4.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS .. Final picks
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 940 . 1220 . OSU over Kan
2 .... Straight seeding ...... 930 . 1330 . Fla over OSU
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 930 . 1050 . NC over Fla
4 .... RPI ................... 880 . 1280 . OSU over UCLA
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
### Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Status . Final picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1 . matt_99 ............... 1050 . 1170 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
2 . irishdodger ........... 1040 . 1440 . IN ..... G'town over Fla
3 . RichardRiot ........... 1010 . 1410 . IN ..... OSU over UCLA
4 . Pham 1 ................ 1010 . 1290 . IN ..... UCLA over NC
5 . Magoteaux 1 ........... .970 . 1090 . OUT .... Memphis over UCLA
6 . leprechaun4life ....... .930 . 1210 . OUT .... G'town over Wis
7t. Kickerbg31 ............ .920 . 1320 . IN ..... OSU over Fla
7t. ojo_223 ............... .920 . 1320 . IN ..... G'town over UCLA
9 . brennan 1 ............. .920 . 1040 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
10. stonebreakerwasgod .... .910 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
11. GoshenGipper .......... .910 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
12. NDFan78 ............... .880 . 1000 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
13. onenybrother .......... .870 . 1270 . IN ..... Fla over OSU
14. Armano 1 .............. .860 . .980 . OUT .... NC over Fla
15. Texas Tech always loses .840 . 1240 . OUT .... Fla over OSU
16. Jones 1 ............... .830 . 1230 . OUT .... UCLA over G'town
17. IrishRamMan10 ......... .830 . .950 . OUT .... Tex A&M over Fla
18. Clausen2Kamara ........ .800 . 1080 . OUT .... Fla over Tex A&M
19. AZIRISHFAN ............ .790 . 1190 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
20t goirish#1 ............. .770 . 1170 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
20t Stark 1 ............... .770 . 1170 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
22. Uncle 1 ............... .770 . .890 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
23t Klang 1 ............... .750 . .870 . OUT .... Pitt over G'town
23t Mingea III 1 .......... .750 . .870 . OUT .... Kan over G'town
25. Steveo2 ............... .700 . .980 . OUT .... G'town over Kan
26. Jensen 1 .............. .690 . .970 . OUT .... OSU over Kan
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690 . .690 . OUT .... Kan over NC
28. jones 1 ............... .680 . .960 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
29. Akron Irish ........... .680 . .800 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
30. willey 1 .............. .640 . .640 . OUT .... NC over Pitt
31. phillips 2 ............ .570 . .850 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
Only 6 people still have a chance to win. Interestingly enough, the current leader, matt_99, cannot finish in first no matter what happens. Matt had Kansas picked to go all the way, and while he can still pick up another 120 points from Ohio State, every possible scenario will result in someone having more points than Matt in the end.
Here's the scenarios:
If UCLA wins out, Pham 1 is the winner.
If the title game is between Florida and Georgetown, it doesn't matter who wins the game, because irishdodger would be the winner in either case.
If Ohio State defeats UCLA for the title, RichardRiot wins.
If Ohio State defeats Florida for the title, Kickerbg31 wins.
If Florida defeats Ohio State for the title, onenybrother wins.
And finally, if Georgetown defeats UCLA for the title, irishdodger and ojo_223 will finish in a tie, and the tiebreaker will be needed to determine the winner.
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
All 4 default methods started out quite strong against the human selections, but all 4 default methods are beginning to fade out as we head into the Final 4.
Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS .. Final picks
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 940 . 1220 . OSU over Kan
2 .... Straight seeding ...... 930 . 1330 . Fla over OSU
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 930 . 1050 . NC over Fla
4 .... RPI ................... 880 . 1280 . OSU over UCLA
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
Last edited:
IRISHDODGER
Blue Chip Recruit
- Messages
- 8,044
- Reaction score
- 6,108
Nice job, once again.
Vince Young
New member
- Messages
- 1,296
- Reaction score
- 64
Vince Young
New member
- Messages
- 1,296
- Reaction score
- 64
Alrighty, here's the standings heading into the championship game:
### Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Status . Final picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1 . matt_99 ............... 1170 . 1170 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
2 . Kickerbg31 ............ 1160 . 1320 . IN ..... OSU over Fla
3 . irishdodger ........... 1160 . 1160 . OUT .... G'town over Fla
4t. stonebreakerwasgod .... 1150 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
4t. GoshenGipper .......... 1150 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
6 . RichardRiot ........... 1130 . 1290 . OUT .... OSU over UCLA
7 . onenybrother .......... 1110 . 1270 . IN ..... Fla over OSU
8 . Texas Tech always loses 1080 . 1240 . OUT .... Fla over OSU
9 . brennan 1 ............. 1040 . 1040 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
10. Pham 1 ................ 1010 . 1010 . OUT .... UCLA over NC
11. NDFan78 ............... 1000 . 1000 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
12. Armano 1 .............. .980 . .980 . OUT .... NC over Fla
13. Magoteaux 1 ........... .970 . .970 . OUT .... Memphis over UCLA
14. IrishRamMan10 ......... .950 . .950 . OUT .... Tex A&M over Fla
15. leprechaun4life ....... .930 . .930 . OUT .... G'town over Wis
16. Clausen2Kamara ........ .920 . 1080 . OUT .... Fla over Tex A&M
17. ojo_223 ............... .920 . .920 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
18. AZIRISHFAN ............ .910 . 1070 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
19. Stark 1 ............... .890 . 1050 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
20. Jones 1 ............... .830 . .830 . OUT .... UCLA over G'town
21. Jensen 1 .............. .810 . .970 . OUT .... OSU over Kan
22t goirish#1 ............. .770 . .770 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
22t Uncle 1 ............... .770 . .770 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
24t Klang 1 ............... .750 . .750 . OUT .... Pitt over G'town
24t Mingea III 1 .......... .750 . .750 . OUT .... Kan over G'town
26. Steveo2 ............... .700 . .700 . OUT .... G'town over Kan
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690 . .690 . OUT .... Kan over NC
28t jones 1 ............... .680 . .680 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
28t Akron Irish ........... .680 . .680 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
30. willey 1 .............. .640 . .640 . OUT .... NC over Pitt
31. phillips 2 ............ .570 . .570 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
Irishdodger needed Georgetown to advance to stay alive, but Georgetown's loss knocked him out.
RichardRiot, Pham 1 and ojo_223 all needed UCLA to advance to stay alive, but UCLA's loss knocked them all out.
So, it's down to two: if Ohio State wins, so does Kickerbg31. And if Florida wins, so does onenybrother. Good luck!
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
Rank . Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Final picks
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 1170 . 1330 . Fla over OSU
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 1060 . 1220 . OSU over Kan
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 1050 . 1050 . NC over Fla
4 .... RPI ................... 1000 . 1160 . OSU over UCLA
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
### Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Status . Final picks
--------------------------------------------------------------------
1 . matt_99 ............... 1170 . 1170 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
2 . Kickerbg31 ............ 1160 . 1320 . IN ..... OSU over Fla
3 . irishdodger ........... 1160 . 1160 . OUT .... G'town over Fla
4t. stonebreakerwasgod .... 1150 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
4t. GoshenGipper .......... 1150 . 1310 . OUT .... OSU over Fla
6 . RichardRiot ........... 1130 . 1290 . OUT .... OSU over UCLA
7 . onenybrother .......... 1110 . 1270 . IN ..... Fla over OSU
8 . Texas Tech always loses 1080 . 1240 . OUT .... Fla over OSU
9 . brennan 1 ............. 1040 . 1040 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
10. Pham 1 ................ 1010 . 1010 . OUT .... UCLA over NC
11. NDFan78 ............... 1000 . 1000 . OUT .... Kan over OSU
12. Armano 1 .............. .980 . .980 . OUT .... NC over Fla
13. Magoteaux 1 ........... .970 . .970 . OUT .... Memphis over UCLA
14. IrishRamMan10 ......... .950 . .950 . OUT .... Tex A&M over Fla
15. leprechaun4life ....... .930 . .930 . OUT .... G'town over Wis
16. Clausen2Kamara ........ .920 . 1080 . OUT .... Fla over Tex A&M
17. ojo_223 ............... .920 . .920 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
18. AZIRISHFAN ............ .910 . 1070 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
19. Stark 1 ............... .890 . 1050 . OUT .... Fla over G'town
20. Jones 1 ............... .830 . .830 . OUT .... UCLA over G'town
21. Jensen 1 .............. .810 . .970 . OUT .... OSU over Kan
22t goirish#1 ............. .770 . .770 . OUT .... G'town over UCLA
22t Uncle 1 ............... .770 . .770 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
24t Klang 1 ............... .750 . .750 . OUT .... Pitt over G'town
24t Mingea III 1 .......... .750 . .750 . OUT .... Kan over G'town
26. Steveo2 ............... .700 . .700 . OUT .... G'town over Kan
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690 . .690 . OUT .... Kan over NC
28t jones 1 ............... .680 . .680 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
28t Akron Irish ........... .680 . .680 . OUT .... NC over UCLA
30. willey 1 .............. .640 . .640 . OUT .... NC over Pitt
31. phillips 2 ............ .570 . .570 . OUT .... UCLA over Tex
(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)
Irishdodger needed Georgetown to advance to stay alive, but Georgetown's loss knocked him out.
RichardRiot, Pham 1 and ojo_223 all needed UCLA to advance to stay alive, but UCLA's loss knocked them all out.
So, it's down to two: if Ohio State wins, so does Kickerbg31. And if Florida wins, so does onenybrother. Good luck!
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against.
Rank . Name ................... Pts . MPS .. Final picks
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 1170 . 1330 . Fla over OSU
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 1060 . 1220 . OSU over Kan
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 1050 . 1050 . NC over Fla
4 .... RPI ................... 1000 . 1160 . OSU over UCLA
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
notredomer23
Staph Member
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- 17,635
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- 17,557
your making me feel bad. lol
Vince Young
New member
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- 1,296
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- 64
Alrighty, here's the final standings:
### Name ................... Pts
---------------------------------
1 . onenybrother .......... 1270
2 . Texas Tech always loses 1240
3 . matt_99 ............... 1170
4t. Kickerbg31 ............ 1160
4t. irishdodger ........... 1160
6t. stonebreakerwasgod .... 1150
6t. GoshenGipper .......... 1150
8 . RichardRiot ........... 1130
9 . Clausen2Kamara ........ 1080
10. AZIRISHFAN ............ 1070
11. Stark 1 ............... 1050
12. brennan 1 ............. 1040
13. Pham 1 ................ 1010
14. NDFan78 ............... 1000
15. Armano 1 .............. .980
16. Magoteaux 1 ........... .970
17. IrishRamMan10 ......... .950
18. leprechaun4life ....... .930
19. ojo_223 ............... .920
20. Jones 1 ............... .830
21. Jensen 1 .............. .810
22t goirish#1 ............. .770
22t Uncle 1 ............... .770
24t Klang 1 ............... .750
24t Mingea III 1 .......... .750
26. Steveo2 ............... .700
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690
28t jones 1 ............... .680
28t Akron Irish ........... .680
30. willey 1 .............. .640
31. phillips 2 ............ .570
Congrats to onenybrother! He edged me out by 30 points to take first place, and a closer look at the scoreboard shows that his entire 30-point advantage came from the opening round. For the rest of the tournament, we paced each other exactly and scored the exact same number of points each round. But in the opening round, he was smarter, and that made all the difference. Looking at onenybrother's bracket, he had only two major upsets selected: #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame (which happened), and #12 Old Dominion over #5 Butler (which didn't happen). Both were fairly safe picks given the amount of buzz surrounding Winthrop and Old Dominion as potential Cinderellas, and there's almost always one 12 that beats a 5 and one 11 that beats a 6. For the rest of the first round, he showed restraint, picking the favorite in everything except for the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups, where he made a few safe upset picks. In contrast, I had 3 opening upsets: #12 Illinois, #12 Arkansas and #11 George Washington, with Arkansas going to the Sweet 16. None of them happened, and what's worse none of them had any real buzz around them at all. Not smart picks on my part. Those 3 teams alone cost me 50 points... and the win.
The lesson here? Play it safe. Opening round upsets happen, but it's so hard to predict them, and chasing after them can actually hit you two ways: you lose out on the upsets that don't happen, and you also lose out on the other upsets that DO happen. onenybrother played it safe and played it smart, and it paid off. Again, congrats!
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. The straight winner ended up being the Straight Seeding method, in more ways than one. By completely ignoring any potential upsets, someone could've won this pool outright by scoring 1330 points, head-and-shoulders above the poll, RPI and Sagarin methods and more than onenybrother's 1270 points. That makes sense, actually. The Selection Committee has a LOT of info at their fingertips and a LOT of knowledge and experience working for them when they seed the teams. On top of that, the Committee seems to "get" the mid-majors more than they used to. In years past, a team like Butler coming off of a strong year in a weak conference would've gotten stuffed into a 12-seed somewhere and forgotten about... until they knocked off a couple of big teams and made the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. But now more than ever, mid-majors like Butler and Southern Illinois are being evaluated much more accurately, and are getting the higher seeds that they deserve. Sure, the Committee "missed" on 11-seeds Winthrop and Virginia Commonwealth, but were they under-seeded, or were 6-seeds Duke and Notre Dame perhaps over-seeded this year instead? Both Winthrop and VCU got bounced out by 3-seeds in the second round, so it's hard to make the case that they deserved a seed much higher than 11 anyway. Bottom-line, the Committee knows what they're doing when they seed these teams, and it's not easy to out-guess them. A straight-seeding bracket would've finished ahead of literally 95% of the brackets out there. But it's not impossible... the national winner scored 1610 out of 1680 possible points.
Rank . Name ................... Pts
------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 1330
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 1060
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 1050
4 .... RPI ................... 1000
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.
### Name ................... Pts
---------------------------------
1 . onenybrother .......... 1270
2 . Texas Tech always loses 1240
3 . matt_99 ............... 1170
4t. Kickerbg31 ............ 1160
4t. irishdodger ........... 1160
6t. stonebreakerwasgod .... 1150
6t. GoshenGipper .......... 1150
8 . RichardRiot ........... 1130
9 . Clausen2Kamara ........ 1080
10. AZIRISHFAN ............ 1070
11. Stark 1 ............... 1050
12. brennan 1 ............. 1040
13. Pham 1 ................ 1010
14. NDFan78 ............... 1000
15. Armano 1 .............. .980
16. Magoteaux 1 ........... .970
17. IrishRamMan10 ......... .950
18. leprechaun4life ....... .930
19. ojo_223 ............... .920
20. Jones 1 ............... .830
21. Jensen 1 .............. .810
22t goirish#1 ............. .770
22t Uncle 1 ............... .770
24t Klang 1 ............... .750
24t Mingea III 1 .......... .750
26. Steveo2 ............... .700
27. Newcomb 1 ............. .690
28t jones 1 ............... .680
28t Akron Irish ........... .680
30. willey 1 .............. .640
31. phillips 2 ............ .570
Congrats to onenybrother! He edged me out by 30 points to take first place, and a closer look at the scoreboard shows that his entire 30-point advantage came from the opening round. For the rest of the tournament, we paced each other exactly and scored the exact same number of points each round. But in the opening round, he was smarter, and that made all the difference. Looking at onenybrother's bracket, he had only two major upsets selected: #11 Winthrop over #6 Notre Dame (which happened), and #12 Old Dominion over #5 Butler (which didn't happen). Both were fairly safe picks given the amount of buzz surrounding Winthrop and Old Dominion as potential Cinderellas, and there's almost always one 12 that beats a 5 and one 11 that beats a 6. For the rest of the first round, he showed restraint, picking the favorite in everything except for the 8-9 and 7-10 matchups, where he made a few safe upset picks. In contrast, I had 3 opening upsets: #12 Illinois, #12 Arkansas and #11 George Washington, with Arkansas going to the Sweet 16. None of them happened, and what's worse none of them had any real buzz around them at all. Not smart picks on my part. Those 3 teams alone cost me 50 points... and the win.
The lesson here? Play it safe. Opening round upsets happen, but it's so hard to predict them, and chasing after them can actually hit you two ways: you lose out on the upsets that don't happen, and you also lose out on the other upsets that DO happen. onenybrother played it safe and played it smart, and it paid off. Again, congrats!
And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. The straight winner ended up being the Straight Seeding method, in more ways than one. By completely ignoring any potential upsets, someone could've won this pool outright by scoring 1330 points, head-and-shoulders above the poll, RPI and Sagarin methods and more than onenybrother's 1270 points. That makes sense, actually. The Selection Committee has a LOT of info at their fingertips and a LOT of knowledge and experience working for them when they seed the teams. On top of that, the Committee seems to "get" the mid-majors more than they used to. In years past, a team like Butler coming off of a strong year in a weak conference would've gotten stuffed into a 12-seed somewhere and forgotten about... until they knocked off a couple of big teams and made the Sweet 16 or Elite 8. But now more than ever, mid-majors like Butler and Southern Illinois are being evaluated much more accurately, and are getting the higher seeds that they deserve. Sure, the Committee "missed" on 11-seeds Winthrop and Virginia Commonwealth, but were they under-seeded, or were 6-seeds Duke and Notre Dame perhaps over-seeded this year instead? Both Winthrop and VCU got bounced out by 3-seeds in the second round, so it's hard to make the case that they deserved a seed much higher than 11 anyway. Bottom-line, the Committee knows what they're doing when they seed these teams, and it's not easy to out-guess them. A straight-seeding bracket would've finished ahead of literally 95% of the brackets out there. But it's not impossible... the national winner scored 1610 out of 1680 possible points.
Rank . Name ................... Pts
------------------------------------
1 .... Straight seeding ...... 1330
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 1060
3 .... Sagarin's power ranking 1050
4 .... RPI ................... 1000
And that's it. I'm going back to bed.