2016 Presidential Horse Race

[NCDomer]

The opinion polls don't mean much. They operate largely on name familiarity. 538 just had an article explaining why Hills isn't a great option for the Dems.

What Might Persuade Hillary Clinton Not To Run In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

 

[GoIrish41]

The opinion polls don't mean much. They operate largely on name familiarity. 538 just had an article explaining why Hills isn't a great option for the Dems.

What Might Persuade Hillary Clinton Not To Run In 2016 | FiveThirtyEight

Voters operate on name recognition too

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

If Warren and Biden don't run in 2016 Hillary might as well be running unopposed in the primaries. I'm going to vote for Warren or Sanders in the primaries but I know Hillary will end up winning the nomination and have an extremely good chance of winning the White House.

I think the beating up candidates hurt the Democrats in 2004 as well.

 

[GATTACA!]

Republican poll from Nov. 21-23 *from CNN
BASED ON 316 RESPONDENTS WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS REPUBLICANS AND 194
WHO DESCRIBE THEMSELVES AS INDEPENDENTS WHO LEAN REPUBLICAN, FOR A TOTAL
OF 510 REPUBLICANS -- SAMPLING ERROR: +/- 4.5 PERCENTAGE PTS.
32. I'm going to read a list of people who may be running in the Republican primaries for president in
2016. After I read all the names, please tell me which of those candidates you would be most likely
to support for the Republican nomination for president in 2016, or if you would support someone
else.
(RANDOM ORDER)


Romney 20%
Carson 10%
Bush 9%
Christie 8%
Huckabee 7%
Paul 6%
Ryan 6%
Cruz 5%
Walker 5%
Perry 4%
Rubio 3%
Kasich 2%
Santorum 2%
Jindal 1%
Pence 1%
Portman *
Someone else (vol.) 6%
None/No one (vol.) 2%
No opinion 3%

At this point these numbers are completely useless and akin to asking people what name they actually recognize. Names are on here that have already decided not to run like Portman, and there are names missing that will undoubtably become participants at some point like Martinez and Haley.

Edit: And there are names that are just non options for 2016 there is ZERO chance that Romney, Santorum, Huckabee, or Perry get the nomination.

 

[Buster Bluth]

At this point these numbers are completely useless and akin to asking people what name they actually recognize. Names are on here that have already decided not to run like Portman, and there are names missing that will undoubtably become participants at some point like Martinez and Haley.

Edit: And there are names that are just non options for 2016 there is ZERO chance that Romney, Santorum, Huckabee, or Perry get the nomination.

I think there's a more than 0% chance that Romney gets the nomination.

 

[GATTACA!]

I think there's a more than 0% chance that Romney gets the nomination.

If Romney gets the nomination they might as well just cancel the election.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Wasn't Bachmann in the lead in these polls in 2010? Her or Cain.

 

[GoIrish41]

If Warren and Biden don't run in 2016 Hillary might as well be running unopposed in the primaries. I'm going to vote for Warren or Sanders in the primaries but I know Hillary will end up winning the nomination and have an extremely good chance of winning the White House.

I think the beating up candidates hurt the Democrats in 2004 as well.

Warren is not running

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

Sorry what is my worst nightmare?

A black man on the Republican ticket. There's a reason the Dems worked so hard to get Cain out of the race quickly in 2012. Ruins their narrative, and that's why they drooled at Romney as the candidate.

If Romney is a serious candidate in 2016 I'll smash my head on a rock

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

There's no reason to worry about Carson because he's just the unorthodox guy in the lead right now. It happens yearly.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Also he has zero experience and isn't a recognizable name and odds are he has some weird belief or screw up that will take him out. There's no way he wins the nomination.

 

[Ultimate Penn St. Hater]

A black man on the Republican ticket. There's a reason the Dems worked so hard to get Cain out of the race quickly in 2012. Ruins their narrative, and that's why they drooled at Romney as the candidate.

If Romney is a serious candidate in 2016 I'll smash my head on a rock

Cain took himself out of the 2012 race. Uz beki stan stan

 

[West Coast Domer]

If Warren and Biden don't run in 2016 Hillary might as well be running unopposed in the primaries. I'm going to vote for Warren or Sanders in the primaries but I know Hillary will end up winning the nomination and have an extremely good chance of winning the White House.

I think the beating up candidates hurt the Democrats in 2004 as well.

I am with you here I am going to vote for Sanders. I wish Warren would run though. Not a lot of great choices for both parties.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I am with you here I am going to vote for Sanders. I wish Warren would run though. Not a lot of great choices for both parties.

Yeah pretty uninspiring on both sides. I'd be okay with voting Hillary but I'd probably vote 3rd party in that case.

 

[Polish Leppy 22]

There's no reason to worry about Carson because he's just the unorthodox guy in the lead right now. It happens yearly.

He's not in the lead, but he's a breath of fresh air because...

1) he is not of the DC/ political machine, which America despises

2) he is charismatic, well spoken, and one of the nation's top neurosurgeon

3) comes off as a uniter, not the divider we've had since 2008

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

He is very well-spoken. He spoke at my high school when I was there and was pretty enjoyable. I mean I disagree with him on about everything but he can give a good speech. The "breath of fresh air" candidates never pan out though. I can't think of a breath of fresh air that has even won a nomination. Even Obama had some experience.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

Americans say they despise it but there's a good chance it's a Clinton-Bush race. People talk about it but then give up on it early.

 

[GoIrish41]

Cain took himself out of the 2012 race. Uz beki stan stan

This

 

[Buster Bluth]

A black man on the Republican ticket. There's a reason the Dems worked so hard to get Cain out of the race quickly in 2012. Ruins their narrative, and that's why they drooled at Romney as the candidate.

uh huh

Also he has zero experience and isn't a recognizable name and odds are he has some weird belief or screw up that will take him out. There's no way he wins the nomination.

Republicans nominated a damn Mormon. What weird beliefs top that?

 

[Buster Bluth]

He is very well-spoken. He spoke at my high school when I was there and was pretty enjoyable. I mean I disagree with him on about everything but he can give a good speech. The "breath of fresh air" candidates never pan out though. I can't think of a breath of fresh air that has even won a nomination. Even Obama had some experience.

No, Obama is the textbook "breath of fresh air" candidate.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I think Obama was a fresh of breath air compared to Bush but not as much for the party. He also did have some political experience unlike Carson who has none.

 

[Buster Bluth]

Americans say they despise it but there's a good chance it's a Clinton-Bush race. People talk about it but then give up on it early.

I'm hoping Sanders, Warren, or Paul get a nomination. Sanders is an independent, would he become a Democrat to run or go independent?

The fact that he calls himself a socialist basically means he has no shot, unfortunately.

But if not, sign me up for Clinton vs Bush. There couldn't be a more fertile race for real political conversation (ie third party) to take root than what that heaping pile of shit would be.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I think Sanders would only run as a Democrat so he doesn't split the ballot and guarantee a Republican win.

I would like to see both Sanders and Paul run as independents and see what happens there.

 

[Buster Bluth]

I took this political compass quiz a few weeks ago, I liked its thoroughness. I'm pretty sure the people at r/neutralpolitics recommended it (a fantastic subreddit by the way).

America’s Most Popular Online Voting Guide

My results:

1) Green Party 86%
2) Libertarian 80%
3) Democrat 80%
4) Socialist 50%
5) Republican 9%

At first I was really shocked that my GOP score was only 9%, but not after I thought about it. To me, my results showed some validity to Ralph Nader's claim that Americans on the Right and Left actually agree on a ton of issues, they're just off the table due to corporate control of Congress. If I lined up with 86% of the Green Party and 80% of Libertarians...that should say something significant about how close the thinking is out there. And, how much of an idea dumpster fire the Republican Party is.

 

[NoJusticeNoPeace]

I got 97% Green, 94% Democrat, 65% Libertarian, 63% Socialist, and 4% Republican. Surprised that Democrat was so high with my views on gun control.

 

[GoIrish41]

I took this political compass quiz a few weeks ago, I liked it's thoroughness. I'm pretty sure the people at r/neutralpolitics recommended it (a fantastic subreddit by the way).

America’s Most Popular Online Voting Guide

My results:

1) Green Party 86%
2) Libertarian 80%
3) Democrat 80%
4) Socialist 50%
5) Republican 9%

At first I was really shocked that my GOP score was only 9%, but not after I thought about it. To me, my results showed some validity to Ralph Nader's claim that Americans on the Right and Left actually agree on a ton of issues, they're just off the table due to corporate control of Congress. If I lined up with 86% of the Green Party and 80% of Libertarians...that should say something significant about how close the thinking is out there. And, how much of an idea dumpster fire the Republican Party is.

Thanks for postimg this. I had 91% Green; 91% Dems; 65% Socialist; and 27% Republican

 

[pkt77242]

I got 89% Green Party, 88% Democrat, 55% Libertarian, 55% Socialist, and 18% Republican.

 

[Hammer Of The Gods]

Great quiz Buster. I got...

97% Republican Party

96% Conservative Party

96% Constitution Party

82% Libertarian Party

17% Democrat Party

I'm shocked by how High the Republican Party percentage is. I can't stand most "Republican" politicians. I've Always classified myself as a Libertarian. But, what the hell. I still want Rand Paul 2016

 

[Corry]

92%Green Party
91%Democrats
79%Libertarians
69%Socialist
44%Republicans

I guess I like everyone a little bit.

 

[ulukinatme]

Great quiz Buster. I got...

97% Republican Party

96% Conservative Party

96% Constitution Party

82% Libertarian Party

17% Democrat Party

I'm shocked by how High the Republican Party percentage is. I can't stand most "Republican" politicians. I've Always classified myself as a Libertarian. But, what the hell. I still want Rand Paul 2016

Mine was similar:

97% Republican

97% Conservative Party

97% Constitution Party

73% Libertarian Party

37% Democrat Party

I don't always vote Republican either (Didn't vote for McCain), but I guess don't take my gun from me, give guns to our military, and quit shooting babies in the womb. Thought I was a little closer to moderate, but still leaned right. Guess not.