11/20 Report Card: Sagarin, Line, Others...

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

As of 11/20, Sagarin Predictive had the highest
"Straight Up" scoring on the Beck tracking site.
The "Against the Spread" results were not quite
as good...Tom

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http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/results.txt

 

[BGIF]

Looks like most of these guys do about 50% better SU then ATS.

 

[tedwick]

The reason for this is that the spread is created to increase the amount of money risked and to make the proposition of wagering for the other side more appealing. It's not how much a team is "supposed" to beat another team by so much as it is a number conceived by vegas to make the prospect of betting on the underdog side look more appealing.

The computer rankings predict what team would win on a neutral field. 1>2>3>4 etc. They're not trying to beat the spread. Therefore, it's no suprise that they don't.

In some ways, beating the spread would be a much more difficult problem computationally, as you wouldn't just have to discern not only which team was better, but by how much. Given that the spread is a fixed number, that would have to take into account the offensive and defensive tendencies of both teams, as well as turnover probability, etc., where as most of the computer rankings go off of a more simple set of data, if i remember correctly.

 

[guff]

My simple rule: You can't beat Vegas. They didn't build all of those casinos and open the sports books so you (the gambler) could make money off of them.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

You are on the money...

You are on the money...

The reason for this is that the spread is created to increase the amount of money risked and to make the proposition of wagering for the other side more appealing. It's not how much a team is "supposed" to beat another team by so much as it is a number conceived by vegas to make the prospect of betting on the underdog side look more appealing.

The computer rankings predict what team would win on a neutral field. 1>2>3>4 etc. They're not trying to beat the spread. Therefore, it's no suprise that they don't.

In some ways, beating the spread would be a much more difficult problem computationally, as you wouldn't just have to discern not only which team was better, but by how much. Given that the spread is a fixed number, that would have to take into account the offensive and defensive tendencies of both teams, as well as turnover probability, etc., where as most of the computer rankings go off of a more simple set of data, if i remember correctly.

tedwick,

Last year, USA Today had an article on the gambling line. They want you angry enough
or greedy enough to come forth and bet...Tom

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

That is the irony...

That is the irony...

Looks like most of these guys do about 50% better SU then ATS.

BGIF,

The line is not set up to predict the score, but it generally is more
accurate than the services trying to do so...Tom

 

[tedwick]

tedwick,

Last year, USA Today had an article on the gambling line. They want you angry enough
or greedy enough to come forth and bet...Tom

not exactly sure what you're getting at. what i'm trying to say (i guess not clearly enough) is that the computer systems aren't designed to beat the spread, i.e. predict the final point differential and then comparing it to vegas' spread. They're designed to predict who will win on a neutral field.

The statistical statement you're making is akin to saying "These cars report X as their typical highway gasoline mileage. But when we drive them through a swamp, they do considerably worse! WHOAH!" The computer rankings aren't designed to beat the spread, just as cars aren't designed to drive through a swamp. Of course the rankings are going to do worse. They're not designed to beat some line vegas puts out.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

Only the BCS- style power ratings...

Only the BCS- style power ratings...

tedwick,

which judge strictly on a "straight up" basis are used
in determining bowl placement. This eliminates the
"run up the score" mentality that was very common and
had a strong influence in earlier BCS-included rating
systems.

Sagarin, for one, lists different versions of his power
ratings:

1. "Predictive" is the most accurate AND is designed
to forecast win margins. It is the far-right column.
2. "Elo-Chess" is the BCS entry and is the least accurate
version. It is strictly a win-loss and SOS system.
3. "Sagarin" is the first column set of numbers and com-
bines win-loss with points estimates.

Many systems attempt to project game spreads, the idea
being to be on the 'right' side of the vegas line...Tom

http://www.nutshellsports.com/wilson/

Lists many and varied power rating services with descript-
ions.

http://www.mratings.com/cf/compare.htm

Lists teams by consensus power ratings. Probably the best
evaluation of teams because the poll bias is eliminated.

http://tbeck.freeshell.org/fb/results.txt

Lists power rating services by statistical accuracy.

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