So I'm sure this has probably been discussed, but a friend at U of M and I, and his friend from Notre Dame, were talking about the championship picture.
So, in front of ND is Louisville, Texas, Michigan, WV, FL, USC, and OSU. Tennessee and Auburn should probably be thrown in there, since if both win out, ND will be competing with them for a spot. Anyway, so what would need to happen.
Every one of those teams will have to lose at least once, except for one. On top of that, USC would have to win out, ND would have to win out, and ND would then have to beat USC. Here are potential losses and their (completely unscientific) likelyhood (USA Today Polls used). The end probabilities are of things going ND's way:
#1 OSU - MSU, Minnesota, and #5 Michigan
Prognosis: 50/50. They'll be slightly favored in the Michigan game. Combine that with the upset bids by MSU and Minnesota, and they've got a 50% chance of ending undefeated and going to the title game. Of course, ND would have to be high enough in the polls and the BCS Rankings by this time that OSU would fall under them.
Probability: 50%
#2 USC - #18 Oregon, #11 California, #8 Notre Dame
Prognosis: Almost no chance they'll go undefeated. Given how weak they look this year, they're not getting out of the season undefeated. For this scenario, they have to beat Oregon and Cal. I'd say they have a 75% chance of doing that. ND will have the slight edge in that final game, and a win should definitely send them to a BCS bowl, no matter what happens around them.
Probablility: 40% (of USC beating Cal and Oregon, then losing to ND)
#3 Florida - #10 Auburn, #14 Georgia, ARV Florida State, SEC Championship game (Most likely #10 or #23)
Prognosis: Today is the final game of the tough stretch in their schedule against #11 Auburn. However, Auburn isn't even looking that strong, after their pantsing against Arkansas. Georgia almost lost to Colorado, and Florida State almost lost to Troy. Florida will definitely be favored in these, and has a 75% chance of not getting upset. They'll probably play Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC Championship game. That should be a test, but not terribly hard for Florida. However, the sheer number of fairly quality teams they'll be facing makes me slightly confident that ND will pass them by the end of the season.
Probability: 50%
#4 WVA - Syracuse (!?), #7 Louisville, Pittsburgh, #24 Rutgers
Prognosis: So, this is a tough one. Either Louisville or WVA goes down by the end of the year. WVA will probably win that game. That means the only things standing between WVA and an undefeated season are Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers. I only mention Syracuse because I'm watching the game, and it's close. Syracuse is terrible. Which makes me think that WVA is liable to be upset by Pitt or Rutgers. Palko is looking good this year, as is Ray Rice of Rutgers. And when they do lose, they'll drop a long way in the polls, just because nobody really thinks they're a great team in the first place.
Probability: 60%
#5 Michigan - Penn State, #15 Iowa, #1 Ohio State
Prognosis: Penn State and Iowa are potential upsets, but I don't think Michigan will lose them. However, they'll face Ohio State at the end of the year. They'll probably lose that one.
Probability: 60%
#6 Texas - #21 Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship Game (Likely against #20 or #21)
Prognosis: Texas is a strong team this year. Not amazing, but strong. Nebraska's a pretty good team, so is Tech. Oklahoma State actually gave Texas problems last year until Vince Young took over the game. The Big 12 Championship will likely feature Nebraska or Missouri. Texas faces a somewhat difficult schedule, and have probably a 35% chance of losing one of them. However, they're also one-loss. That means this probability is compounded with the likelyhood that ND jumps over them with a win over USC, which is fairly likely.
Probability: 75%
#7 Louisville - #5 WVA, #24 Rutgers, Pittsburgh
Prognosis: Fairly similar team to WVA, however, they're missing Michael Bush and Brohm is coming off of an injury. They're still a good team, and they're creaming their mediocre competition (Miami included). However, they'll probably drop one of these, likely against WVA. Also, since they play a weak schedule, there is a likelyhood that, even if they win out, ND may leapfrog them with a win against a top 5 USC team.
Probability: 70%
#8 Notre Dame - UCLA, Air Force, #3 USC
Prognosis: All these teams are definitely beatable, and ND will be favored in the games against UCLA and Air Force. UCLA plays #18 Oregon today, their first real challenge of the season (other than getting beat by Willingham's Washington team) and we'll get a better flavor for how UCLA will play out after that. Air Force is a likely win, but they run that goofy option game and almost knocked Tennessee early in the season. The USC game will be tough, but USC looks entirely beatable this year, not at all the "team of the century" ND came within 30 seconds of beating last year.
Probability: 60%
Then, for posterity:
#9 Tennessee - #14 LSU, #17 Arkansas, SEC Championship Game (?)
Prognosis: They've lost a game already. They'll probably lose one more against one of these two teams. Also, they're a one-loss. They'll give ND a chase if they win out, but if ND beats USC, they won't be ahead of the Irish at season's end.
Probability: 95%
#10 Auburn - #2 Florida, #16 Georgia, SEC Championship Game (?)
Prognosis: They've already lost to Arkansas. They'll probably lose to Florida today. They're behind ND in the polls.
Probability: 95%
So, given all that, what chance does ND have to get in the championship game? The chances of all that stuff together, without one, the team that's most likely to go undefeated. Using the incredibly accurate numbers I have put forth, the probability comes out to be about 2%. It's definitely not likely, and it's completely out of Notre Dame's control. However, there's a small sliver of hope that ND makes it to the championship game. And with that probably comes the Heisman for Quinn, especially if OSU loses to Michigan and Quinn has a huge game against USC. Voters have a short memory
Basically, what it would take is (what I think is the most likely scenario):
OSU loses to Michigan/wins out
USC loses to ND
Florida loses to Georgia or Auburn (in the SEC title game)
WVA loses to Pitt or Rutgers
Michigan loses to OSU/wins out
Texas loses to Oklahoma State
Louisville loses to WVA
This would mean that ND plays the winner of OSU-UM. Which brings up another question: Would the voters put in a UM-ND rematch for the championship game? Maybe. Who knows.
(This can also be found at my very sporadically updated ND Football blog, A Volley Cheer. Feel free to visit. Or give me rep here. I'm new. I'm hip.)
So, in front of ND is Louisville, Texas, Michigan, WV, FL, USC, and OSU. Tennessee and Auburn should probably be thrown in there, since if both win out, ND will be competing with them for a spot. Anyway, so what would need to happen.
Every one of those teams will have to lose at least once, except for one. On top of that, USC would have to win out, ND would have to win out, and ND would then have to beat USC. Here are potential losses and their (completely unscientific) likelyhood (USA Today Polls used). The end probabilities are of things going ND's way:
#1 OSU - MSU, Minnesota, and #5 Michigan
Prognosis: 50/50. They'll be slightly favored in the Michigan game. Combine that with the upset bids by MSU and Minnesota, and they've got a 50% chance of ending undefeated and going to the title game. Of course, ND would have to be high enough in the polls and the BCS Rankings by this time that OSU would fall under them.
Probability: 50%
#2 USC - #18 Oregon, #11 California, #8 Notre Dame
Prognosis: Almost no chance they'll go undefeated. Given how weak they look this year, they're not getting out of the season undefeated. For this scenario, they have to beat Oregon and Cal. I'd say they have a 75% chance of doing that. ND will have the slight edge in that final game, and a win should definitely send them to a BCS bowl, no matter what happens around them.
Probablility: 40% (of USC beating Cal and Oregon, then losing to ND)
#3 Florida - #10 Auburn, #14 Georgia, ARV Florida State, SEC Championship game (Most likely #10 or #23)
Prognosis: Today is the final game of the tough stretch in their schedule against #11 Auburn. However, Auburn isn't even looking that strong, after their pantsing against Arkansas. Georgia almost lost to Colorado, and Florida State almost lost to Troy. Florida will definitely be favored in these, and has a 75% chance of not getting upset. They'll probably play Arkansas or Auburn in the SEC Championship game. That should be a test, but not terribly hard for Florida. However, the sheer number of fairly quality teams they'll be facing makes me slightly confident that ND will pass them by the end of the season.
Probability: 50%
#4 WVA - Syracuse (!?), #7 Louisville, Pittsburgh, #24 Rutgers
Prognosis: So, this is a tough one. Either Louisville or WVA goes down by the end of the year. WVA will probably win that game. That means the only things standing between WVA and an undefeated season are Syracuse, Pitt, and Rutgers. I only mention Syracuse because I'm watching the game, and it's close. Syracuse is terrible. Which makes me think that WVA is liable to be upset by Pitt or Rutgers. Palko is looking good this year, as is Ray Rice of Rutgers. And when they do lose, they'll drop a long way in the polls, just because nobody really thinks they're a great team in the first place.
Probability: 60%
#5 Michigan - Penn State, #15 Iowa, #1 Ohio State
Prognosis: Penn State and Iowa are potential upsets, but I don't think Michigan will lose them. However, they'll face Ohio State at the end of the year. They'll probably lose that one.
Probability: 60%
#6 Texas - #21 Nebraska, Texas Tech, Oklahoma State, Big 12 Championship Game (Likely against #20 or #21)
Prognosis: Texas is a strong team this year. Not amazing, but strong. Nebraska's a pretty good team, so is Tech. Oklahoma State actually gave Texas problems last year until Vince Young took over the game. The Big 12 Championship will likely feature Nebraska or Missouri. Texas faces a somewhat difficult schedule, and have probably a 35% chance of losing one of them. However, they're also one-loss. That means this probability is compounded with the likelyhood that ND jumps over them with a win over USC, which is fairly likely.
Probability: 75%
#7 Louisville - #5 WVA, #24 Rutgers, Pittsburgh
Prognosis: Fairly similar team to WVA, however, they're missing Michael Bush and Brohm is coming off of an injury. They're still a good team, and they're creaming their mediocre competition (Miami included). However, they'll probably drop one of these, likely against WVA. Also, since they play a weak schedule, there is a likelyhood that, even if they win out, ND may leapfrog them with a win against a top 5 USC team.
Probability: 70%
#8 Notre Dame - UCLA, Air Force, #3 USC
Prognosis: All these teams are definitely beatable, and ND will be favored in the games against UCLA and Air Force. UCLA plays #18 Oregon today, their first real challenge of the season (other than getting beat by Willingham's Washington team) and we'll get a better flavor for how UCLA will play out after that. Air Force is a likely win, but they run that goofy option game and almost knocked Tennessee early in the season. The USC game will be tough, but USC looks entirely beatable this year, not at all the "team of the century" ND came within 30 seconds of beating last year.
Probability: 60%
Then, for posterity:
#9 Tennessee - #14 LSU, #17 Arkansas, SEC Championship Game (?)
Prognosis: They've lost a game already. They'll probably lose one more against one of these two teams. Also, they're a one-loss. They'll give ND a chase if they win out, but if ND beats USC, they won't be ahead of the Irish at season's end.
Probability: 95%
#10 Auburn - #2 Florida, #16 Georgia, SEC Championship Game (?)
Prognosis: They've already lost to Arkansas. They'll probably lose to Florida today. They're behind ND in the polls.
Probability: 95%
So, given all that, what chance does ND have to get in the championship game? The chances of all that stuff together, without one, the team that's most likely to go undefeated. Using the incredibly accurate numbers I have put forth, the probability comes out to be about 2%. It's definitely not likely, and it's completely out of Notre Dame's control. However, there's a small sliver of hope that ND makes it to the championship game. And with that probably comes the Heisman for Quinn, especially if OSU loses to Michigan and Quinn has a huge game against USC. Voters have a short memory
Basically, what it would take is (what I think is the most likely scenario):
OSU loses to Michigan/wins out
USC loses to ND
Florida loses to Georgia or Auburn (in the SEC title game)
WVA loses to Pitt or Rutgers
Michigan loses to OSU/wins out
Texas loses to Oklahoma State
Louisville loses to WVA
This would mean that ND plays the winner of OSU-UM. Which brings up another question: Would the voters put in a UM-ND rematch for the championship game? Maybe. Who knows.
(This can also be found at my very sporadically updated ND Football blog, A Volley Cheer. Feel free to visit. Or give me rep here. I'm new. I'm hip.)
