How many wins will Notre Dame have next year?

[Vince Young]

I agree but about 75% is the coaching - not getting the kids hyped up against BYU

*sigh* You're completely missing my point.

This isn't really about Ty. This is about taking a realistic look at the situation C-Dub is stepping into.

Look at an example: our defensive secondary. We were very weak in our pass defense the past few years. Ty deserves blame for not recruiting talented players for those positions. Now Ty's gone... but the same untalented players are still there.

C-Dub is inheriting a lousy pass defense, and all the impassioned halftime speeches in the world will not turn a slow safety into Deion Sanders. It just ain't gonna happen.

The bottom line is that C-Dub has inherited a 6-6 team. Expecting a 6-6 team to win 9 games in their first year with a brand new coach is simply unrealistic, and the sorts of people who think it's realistic are the idiots who will be starting up FireCharlieWeis.com a year from now.

All I want to see is an improvement from 6-6. If C-Dub can do a better job with basically the same players that Ty had, I'll consider that progress.

Even Lou Holtz went 5-6 his first year, and 8-4 his second year. Demanding a 9-win season and a BCS bowl from C-Dub in Year One is just asinine.

 

[irishgo8]

i understand but look we should have been a 9-3 team this year - C-Dub will win the games he is supposed to and go like 9-3 or 8-4 thats what i want to see and am expecting but lets wait and see

 

[BigIrish]

*sigh* You're completely missing my point.

This isn't really about Ty. This is about taking a realistic look at the situation C-Dub is stepping into.

Look at an example: our defensive secondary. We were very weak in our pass defense the past few years. Ty deserves blame for not recruiting talented players for those positions. Now Ty's gone... but the same untalented players are still there.

C-Dub is inheriting a lousy pass defense, and all the impassioned halftime speeches in the world will not turn a slow safety into Deion Sanders. It just ain't gonna happen.

The bottom line is that C-Dub has inherited a 6-6 team. Expecting a 6-6 team to win 9 games in their first year with a brand new coach is simply unrealistic, and the sorts of people who think it's realistic are the idiots who will be starting up FireCharlieWeis.com a year from now.

All I want to see is an improvement from 6-6. If C-Dub can do a better job with basically the same players that Ty had, I'll consider that progress.

Even Lou Holtz went 5-6 his first year, and 8-4 his second year. Demanding a 9-win season and a BCS bowl from C-Dub in Year One is just asinine.

Good post. You're right - Weis doesn't have a magic wand that will transform mediocre athletes into great athletes. I do however, have a lot of confidence that Weis will use the players he does have in much more creative ways than Ty did. Ty wasn't the only reason ND was 6-6. But his predicable play calling and formations didn't help things either.

 

[irishgo8]

it wasnt but alot of it was his fault - even lyght has to admit thatabout 8-4 or 9-3 looks like conservative pick

 

[cwags]

They'll be lucky to go 7-4 in the regular season. Michigan is going to tear our heads off and feed them to us because we screwed them out of a chance for a Title. USC and Tennessee are likely losses (we got lucky this year against an injured Tennessee). Purdue and Pitt will be tough. The rest we probably should win. But, the team isn't substantially better than it was last year and a lot of those teams aren't the Nancies they used to be. The worst thing Weis could probably do is go 9-2 or 10-1. Look what that did to Ty. Call me a cynic but I see Weis's record's the next 3 years at around .500 each year. I'm sure people will be calling for his head then too.

 

[Irish Envy]

it wasnt but alot of it was his fault - even lyght has to admit thatabout 8-4 or 9-3 looks like conservative pick

Conservative? Are you off your rocker or just talking out your ass?

 

[NDLyght37]

This isn't really about Ty. This is about taking a realistic look at the situation C-Dub is stepping into...
All I want to see is an improvement from 6-6. If C-Dub can do a better job with basically the same players that Ty had, I'll consider that progress. Even Lou Holtz went 5-6 his first year, and 8-4 his second year. Demanding a 9-win season and a BCS bowl from C-Dub in Year One is just asinine.

Exactly. While I think Weis is set up in a better situation than Ty was when he arrived, I think C-Dub has a general lack of talent to overcome. Now, he could be the next coming of Rockne...but even Rockne would have a hard time guiding this squad to a National Championship/BCS Bowl Bid in just one season. There are some good blocks to build upon for the next season, but (re)building a program takes time. And I hope Weis is given the time to build it. I don't care if we struggle for a season...if it leads us back to the respect that ND used to command (on & off-field), then I can wait for C-Dub's plan to come to fruition.

The problem with creating a scapegoat is what happens once the goat is gone, but some of the same problems remain? I think we will see improvement (both in large ways, and in intangible ways). But to think, "We got rid of our coach...now we can beat USC and win a Championship", that's just ludicrous.

And irish, I don't think 9-3 is a conservative pick at all. I think that's an extremely optimistic pick. I think 7-5 (including a bowl game) is more realistic.

 

[Irish Envy]

Looked at the upcoming schedule again & I think 7 wins & a bowl game might be the best we can hope for. It's not a championship, but an 8-4 season after the bowl game is prefectly acceptable for me in C-Dub's first year.

8-4 is exactly what I have pictured.

Losses are at Michigan, USC and I think Michigan State picks us off. I think we can beat all of the rest if we get some big plays from BQ. I then think we may get overmatched in a bowl game and get picked off in a close one.

 

[BigIrish]

8-4 is exactly what I have pictured.

Losses are at Michigan, USC and I think Michigan State picks us off. I think we can beat all of the rest if we get some big plays from BQ. I then think we may get overmatched in a bowl game and get picked off in a close one.

Agreed. 8-4 is my pick too. Although I don't think Michigan State will be one of the teams that knocks us off (I'll be at that game!), we'll stumble along the way. Anything better than 6-6 is a blessing...

If Weis comes through and puts this recruiting class in the top 25, imagine what he can do with some success in '05 and a full year to recruit...I'm excited about 2005, but I'm looking forward to 2006 and 2007 when the Irish will start to compete with the elites again.

 

[bmf175]

One other thing to think about is yes some of the players on the roster do not have the talent or athletic ability to compete with the Athletes on the opposing teams.(especially the schools ND has)
BUT... You have to remember that they are playing at ND for some reason. Im sure ND was not the only big school that was recruiting them. So with that said I feel that alot of the athletes that we think suck ass. In reality maybe all they really need is a better coach and also a better positions coach.
I know recruiting has gone down hill in the past couple of years but the recruits they did get do possess the athletic ability to compete.

 

[seIRISH]

One other thing to think about is yes some of the players on the roster do not have the talent or athletic ability to compete with the Athletes on the opposing teams.(especially the schools ND has)
BUT... You have to remember that they are playing at ND for some reason. Im sure ND was not the only big school that was recruiting them. So with that said I feel that alot of the athletes that we think suck ass. In reality maybe all they really need is a better coach and also a better positions coach.
I know recruiting has gone down hill in the past couple of years but the recruits they did get do possess the athletic ability to compete.

I agree with the coaching change and believe it will make a big differance but not really in wins and losses this year.I think 8-3 is a great year but the potential is their to be better.Having lived in los angeles my whole life I have seen usc have all the talent in the world and never had a coach that could translate it to the field.When they got the right coach all of a sudden they are the best team in the nation.Carson palmer was a kid who had potential since the day he was recrutied but it took carroll and chow to get him to live up to it.I think the coach is going to have a huge impact this year. we may not win them all but we will be competetive which is a step in the right direction.Also except for last year we were always in the top 15 in recruiting.Thats talent

 

[GoinIrishSince85]

I'm going to say 8-3, although I could see 9-2, maybe ever (dare I say it?) 10-1, because we beat Michigan last year, but going to the Big House is like being a visitor in South Bend. Tennessee is at home this year, so I think we can win that. USC is the only team I think we should predict a loss to right now, and simply because I can't see Carroll's superteam falling apart in 6 or 7 games and I can't see Weis turning us into that caliber a team in 6 or 7 games either. I hope I'm wrong, but...

 

[TomFoolery]

Nd Wins 5!

Nd Wins 5!

The Irish Will Win Five Next Year. You Guys Are Expecting A Whole Lot Out Of An Unproven College Coach In Year One. Maybe By Year 3-4....6-7 Wins Would Be Feasible. If He Doesn't Deliver Next Year Or The Subsequesnt Years, Will The Staff Ask For His Removal??

 

[Rip Rap]

The Irish Will Win Five Next Year. You Guys Are Expecting A Whole Lot Out Of An Unproven College Coach In Year One. Maybe By Year 3-4....6-7 Wins Would Be Feasible. If He Doesn't Deliver Next Year Or The Subsequesnt Years, Will The Staff Ask For His Removal??

Ah, yes. But we are also expecting a solid performance from the three former head coaches he hired: Cutcliffe, Minter, and Lewis.

Who would the six losses be to?

S 03 @ Pittsburgh
S 10 @ Michigan
S 17 MICHIGAN ST.
S 24 @ Washington
O 01 @ Purdue
O 15 USC
O 22 BYU
N 05 TENNESSEE
N 12 NAVY
N 19 SYRACUSE
N 26 @ Stanford

Via Wake the Echoes: http://www.waketheechoes.com/

According to Phil Steele's composite rankings, Notre Dame has more consensus top 25 starters than USC, Tennessee and Michigan; and only one Notre Dame recruiting class was ranked below consensus #7. That is Ty's latest class.

Notre Dame is, quite simply, one of the most talented teams in the country.

 

[Rip Rap]

Schedule analysis:

The recruiting databases seem to indicate that ND has superior talent to every school we play, save Tennessee, Michigan, and USC. USC is lightyears ahead of Notre Dame by these sources.

First year coach Charlie Weis and ND should beat first year coach Dave Wanstadt and Pitt. Michigan should be a loss. MSU is a headcase program that shows up for this game. A first year Charlie Weis at ND should beat a first year Ty Willingham at Washington. Purdue could go either way, and USC should be a loss. BYU should be a win, Tennessee should be a loss, and Navy will be a win. Syracuse and Stanford both have first year coaches and lesser talent, and will face ND late in the season. These should be wins.

7 or 8 wins and a bowl game is a perfectly rational expectation.

 

[GoinIrishSince85]

I think we're underestimating some of the talent and direction. Yeah, I'll admit that I'm optimistic, but lets be honest. Charlie Weis and David Cutcliffe and Mike Haywood will not allow that offense to go bust in a game and Charlie Weis and Bill Lewis and Rick Minter are not going to allow the defense to fall apart either. I think that was the problem a lot last year was that while we were hot on one side of the ball, we were dead on the other. Examples(Hot D in Tennessee, but the offense was ice...Pittsburgh was all offense, no D...although the refs were horrible. I know, I witnessed it in person) If we can be consistent on both sides of the ball in a good way, be effective (and I think discipline has a lot to do with that) we should be at least 8-3. We'll just have to wait and see.

 

[NDLyght37]

Who would the losses be to?.

My Thoughts:
S 03 @ Pittsburgh (Win)
S 10 @ Michigan (Loss)
S 17 MICHIGAN ST. (Win)
S 24 @ Washington (Win)
O 01 @ Purdue (Loss)
O 15 USC (Loss)
O 22 BYU (Win)
N 05 TENNESSEE (Loss)
N 12 NAVY (Loss)
N 19 SYRACUSE (Win)
N 26 @ Stanford (Win)
* - A Bowl Win

I predict a 7-5 season with a win in let's say...the Holiday Bowl. I don't even know if we're eligible for that bowl game due to conference restrictions, but it will be some upper-mid level bowl game like that...besides, the boys deserve a trip to California in the middle of the winter.

 

[timm3117]

I think 8-3, so 9 wins with a bowl win. If we lose to USC, TENN, and Michigan and beat all the rest which we should 8-3, but we beat Tenn and Mich last year so there no lock to beat us. Other then those 3, Purdue is the only above average team on our Schedule. Navy, Mich St., Stanford, Washington, and BYU are cup cakes, that we should(NOTE: Should) walk all over. Pitt and the Cuse are average at best. So if we beat the 7 we should, plus one of the others we're at 8. And 8-3 would be a good building block for the future.

 

[timm3117]

My Thoughts:
S 03 @ Pittsburgh (Win)
S 10 @ Michigan (Loss)
S 17 MICHIGAN ST. (Win)
S 24 @ Washington (Win)
O 01 @ Purdue (Loss)
O 15 USC (Loss)
O 22 BYU (Win)
N 05 TENNESSEE (Loss)
N 12 NAVY (Loss)
N 19 SYRACUSE (Win)
N 26 @ Stanford (Win)
* - A Bowl Win

Your joking right? Navy? Not even Ty or Bob could find a way to let Navy beat ND.

 

[NDLyght37]

Your joking right? Navy? Not even Ty or Bob could find a way to let Navy beat ND.

Let's not sleep on Navy. I think there's always a trap game, and Navy looked pretty doggone impressive in their Bowl game. They had a 9-win season and finished in the Top 25. To me, if the boys think they can just show up and win, they're in for a rude awakening. That's the type of midset that leads to upsets. I hope not, but it wouldn't surprise me.

 

[Rip Rap]

Your joking right? Navy? Not even Ty or Bob could find a way to let Navy beat ND.

Navy certainly earned my 'most improved' status last year, having seen them play against us and Army. They are much more on the level of Air Force now, and anytime you face a wonky offense, you should be scared.

I still believe they can't pass or cover our receivers. We should pass all over a school like Navy. Hopefully next year we finally will. But if it's a running game and a ball-control contest, it could be close as usual.

For the record: I said 8-4. I think we'll go .500 through the first 8 games, and win the last three of the season and a bowl.

EDIT: Side Note: We will face 5 teams with first-year coaches next season: Pitt, Washington, BYU, Syracuse, and Stanford. Plus, we still have Navy. There is no excuse for losing those games, as we have better athletes than all of them.

 

[timm3117]

Well I didnt say Navy couldn't beat ND. I just dont think it will happen. There top 4 rushers (Kyle Eckel, Aaron Polanco, Eric Roberts, and Frank Divis all Seniors)are now on battle ships some where off the coast of Iraq(just guessing). And yes they went 9-2 last year with wins over powerhouses Duke(2-9), Northeastern(AA), Tulsa(4-8), Vanderbilt(2-9), Air Force(5-6), Rice(3-8), Delaware(AA), Rutgers(4-7), and Army(2-9). With that Schedule ND would never lose.

 

[Guest]

My Thoughts:
S 03 @ Pittsburgh (Win)
S 10 @ Michigan (Loss)
S 17 MICHIGAN ST. (Win)
S 24 @ Washington (Win)
O 01 @ Purdue (Loss)
O 15 USC (Loss)
O 22 BYU (Win)
N 05 TENNESSEE (Loss)
N 12 NAVY (Loss)
N 19 SYRACUSE (Win)
N 26 @ Stanford (Win)
* - A Bowl Win

I predict a 7-5 season with a win in let's say...the Holiday Bowl. I don't even know if we're eligible for that bowl game due to conference restrictions, but it will be some upper-mid level bowl game like that...besides, the boys deserve a trip to California in the middle of the winter.

How could you have us losing to Navy....If Weis lost that game, I'll personally start up a fireweis.com. lol

 

[bmf175]

My Thoughts:
S 03 @ Pittsburgh (Win)
S 10 @ Michigan (Loss)
S 17 MICHIGAN ST. (Win)
S 24 @ Washington (Win)
O 01 @ Purdue (Loss)
O 15 USC (Loss)
O 22 BYU (Win)
N 05 TENNESSEE (Loss)
N 12 NAVY (Loss)
N 19 SYRACUSE (Win)
N 26 @ Stanford (Win)
* - A Bowl Win

I predict a 7-5 season with a win in let's say...the Holiday Bowl. I don't even know if we're eligible for that bowl game due to conference restrictions, but it will be some upper-mid level bowl game like that...besides, the boys deserve a trip to California in the middle of the winter.

No Freakin way!!! You had to put that loss to Navy just to piss people off. I along with all other sane ND fans know we will beat Navy. And I seriously doubt we will lose to Purdue again. Kyle Orton is leaving isnt he?(do not really know)

And one of those big games we will win as well. I think Tennesse we will beat them in South Bend. A close game that will always be remembered.
To end with 8-4 or 9-3 more than likely 8-4 with a victory over Navy.

 

[irishgo8]

Lyght did u leave your brain in the snow? J/K. I mean if Ty and Faust and Davie could beat Navy during our suffering years - then there's no doubt in my mind Navy will be a loss. Yes orton is leaving. He's a senior and i think our secondary will be far improved next year - so i am expecting at worst a 8-4 season but probably a 9-3 season (losses to Muchagain, United Southern Comfort at losing, and Tennis ball.) although if our secondary is much improved i can see us pulling a upset in one or two of those games or even all three but then a upset by bc or syracuse from over confidence.

 

[Vince Young]

Yeah, yeah, I know... even Faust, Davie and Ty managed to avoid losing to Navy, but there's a HUGE difference between 1985 Navy and 2005 Navy. Yeah, Navy's '04 schedule wasn't exactly impressive, but they used to LOSE to teams like Duke and Delaware. Now they beat them, and beat them big-time.

Navy gets better and better each year, and they've taken us to the wire several times in the past decade. Heck, I remember one game where they were half a yard away from beating us. Sooner or later, something's gonna bounce the right way for them in a close game, and they'll leave the stadium with a different sort of streak against Notre Dame: a 1-game winning streak.

It might not be '05 when it finally happens, but get used to it folks: within most of our lifetimes, we will see a Navy loss.

(And for the love of Pete, if someone actually starts up firecharlieweis.com solely in response to a Navy loss, I will get VERY grumpy.)

 

[bmf175]

Yeah, yeah, I know... even Faust, Davie and Ty managed to avoid losing to Navy, but there's a HUGE difference between 1985 Navy and 2005 Navy. Yeah, Navy's '04 schedule wasn't exactly impressive, but they used to LOSE to teams like Duke and Delaware. Now they beat them, and beat them big-time.

Navy gets better and better each year, and they've taken us to the wire several times in the past decade. Heck, I remember one game where they were half a yard away from beating us. Sooner or later, something's gonna bounce the right way for them in a close game, and they'll leave the stadium with a different sort of streak against Notre Dame: a 1-game winning streak.

It might not be '05 when it finally happens, but get used to it folks: within most of our lifetimes, we will see a Navy loss.

(And for the love of Pete, if someone actually starts up firecharlieweis.com solely in response to a Navy loss, I will get VERY grumpy.)

Yeah but you need to look at tim3117 post. And using the argument that Navy is winning by a bigger margin to duke and Delaware has nothing to do with them having the potential to beat ND. But it does have a lot to do with them beating those types of teams.
And you also mean the 2004 Navy team is different from the 1985 team.(becasue they are a service academy there is no telling what they will be like in 2005) but after they lose four big time starters. even the 2004 team prestige goes out the window.
Yes everybody knows sooner or later the streak will end. everything comes to an end but there is no logical thought process that says Navy has a better shot at beating ND in 2005. only a small degree of PROBABILITY(very small) but it is still there.

 

[Vince Young]

And using the argument that Navy is winning by a bigger margin to duke and Delaware has nothing to do with them having the potential to beat ND.

Alright, then... just look at how well they've done against Notre Dame in recent years. Stick your arm out, and look at the distance from your shoulder to your fingertips. That's literally how close Navy came to beating us one year, and they've been pretty close a number of other times. That, combined with their much-improved performance against other teams, means that they're gonna beat Notre Dame at some point, and it could easily be sooner than you think.

And if we lose to a ranked Navy team that finishes 9-2 and wins a tough bowl game, is that really all that embarrassing?

 

[irishgo8]

Yeah but you need to look at tim3117 post. And using the argument that Navy is winning by a bigger margin to duke and Delaware has nothing to do with them having the potential to beat ND. But it does have a lot to do with them beating those types of teams.
And you also mean the 2004 Navy team is different from the 1985 team.(becasue they are a service academy there is no telling what they will be like in 2005) but after they lose four big time starters. even the 2004 team prestige goes out the window.
Yes everybody knows sooner or later the streak will end. everything comes to an end but there is no logical thought process that says Navy has a better shot at beating ND in 2005. only a small degree of PROBABILITY(very small) but it is still there.

I always find it hard to believe Young with his But hey, I think Ty deserved a 4th year, so what the hell do I know? at the bottom of each post. J/K. No i agree with you BMF - why should Notre Dame lose to a team it killed in 2004 and then get almost all its players back and Navy lose its best players (eckel i believe is going) and then ND lose to Navy in 05? It doesnt stand to reason. But it is going to happen and VY may be right sooner than me and bmf think. But the thing is - its going to be a while because first you're going to have to get rid of the option system at Navy or else get rid of the 4th or 5th best rushing defense at ND which i doubt Weis and Minter will be trying to get rid of.

As for starting fireweis.com i wouldnt do it even if c-dub went 0-11. I may say on message boards that he ought to be fired (and if he went 0-11 i hope i wouldnt have to debate with lyght that we need to give him 100 more seasons lol j/k). I think it really is rude to start up a site to call for someone's job. I may visit it daily but i would never start it up. Also i wouldnt start it up on a sole loss to Navy although id probably be so maaaad.

 

[bmf175]

Yeah, yeah, I know... even Faust, Davie and Ty managed to avoid losing to Navy, but there's a HUGE difference between 1985 Navy and 2005 Navy. Yeah, Navy's '04 schedule wasn't exactly impressive, but they used to LOSE to teams like Duke and Delaware. Now they beat them, and beat them big-time.

Navy gets better and better each year, and they've taken us to the wire several times in the past decade. Heck, I remember one game where they were half a yard away from beating us. Sooner or later, something's gonna bounce the right way for them in a close game, and they'll leave the stadium with a different sort of streak against Notre Dame: a 1-game winning streak.

It might not be '05 when it finally happens, but get used to it folks: within most of our lifetimes, we will see a Navy loss.


(And for the love of Pete, if someone actually starts up firecharlieweis.com solely in response to a Navy loss, I will get VERY grumpy.)

OK short version.. I never said Navy will never beat ND as long as Navy has a Football program. I never said that, I actually admitted that Navy will win some day.
But there is no logical reason, whatsoever, to beleive that 2005 will be the year.
Ok riddle me this Batman... What year are you talking about, when you bought up the arms lentgh victory? (give me a year)
I know it wasnt this past year.
Navy has indeed come along way in the past couple of years but they are not known for having great depth at any of the key positions. And the players that help build the program are not playing games for a living they are serving their country.
Realize this I dont know what your experience as far as recruiting goes, BUT I have been to West Point to teach the cadets infantry tactics. The military academies are at a severe disadvantage. They can not go out and recruit lineman that would be considered great size for Div I. The military academies have restrictions such as height/weight standards that they must recruit by. So recruiting a 300pd Olineman or 280 pound nose guard is not realistic, unless they stand 7ft 8in. And even then they have height limits. Secondly the ratio to players on the teams at military academies are more towards the walk-on side.

Yeah thats great I Love ND but you know what? I have more respect for the players at a military academy. If they can beat my favorite team I will not get upset over it. That might be the greatest victory in all of their football careers and I would be happy for them.
But to say they are going to beat them next season? Come on people lets use some Logic and not gutt instinct or a bias attitude.
Especially when all these people are talking about ND having better potential than some of the best teams next year. ANd then to turn around and say the are going to lose to Navy? Come On