ND 9-3 by the powr numbers...

Easton Pa ND Fan

Easton Pa ND Fan

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ND's 9 and 3 is based on the average of five power ratings.

ND, Washington and Stanford numbers edged up from last sea-
son while Navy, Pitt and Purdue dipped. Home field advant-
age was added to the "Home." teams.

In this analysis, ND is fortunate to have a home field adv-
antage with Boston College, Michigan State and Nevada.

Personally, I believe that ND will do much better against
this schedule...Tom

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phork

phork

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23 Points to USC? I don't care if we lose, just at least be competitive please.
 
jason_h537

jason_h537

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I don't. i'm sick of losing to USC. a 1 point favorite to Purdue? I trust this team to do much better than that.
 
Easton Pa ND Fan

Easton Pa ND Fan

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They do till the season unfolds...

They do till the season unfolds...

WabashFalcon said:
These Power Numbers don't mean crap. All that matters is what happens on the field.
Click to expand...

All we have to go on until the season starts is the so-called
experts opinion. Everyone has ND as much improved, the power
ratings reflect a +3.38 upgrade, but how much will the other
teams change?

No one has the answer but at the end of last season, these
ratings were 86% or better related to the seasonal scoring
margin average...Tom

<FONT FACE="Arial Black" SIZE="7"><FONT COLOR="#008040">G</FONT><FONT COLOR="#008040">O</FONT><FONT COLOR="#008040"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#006060">I</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">R</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">I</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">S</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">H</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#002040">!</FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000">!</FONT></FONT>
 
NDinL.A.

NDinL.A.

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BostonND said:
Where the hell are these ratings come from? What's going on?
Click to expand...

Tom does these type of things throughout the year, to give a reference for us to see how a computer 'thinks' in comparison to how we all think and how the experts all think. Computers turn out to be right a lot of the time, and of course they're way off a time. It's done just to spark thought and conversation, nothing more...
 
Easton Pa ND Fan

Easton Pa ND Fan

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Power rating references...

Power rating references...

BostonND said:
Where the hell are these ratings come from? What's going on?
Click to expand...

Power ratings are numbers that track football team ability to
win or lose against a particular opponent and by how much.

In theory, the difference between a ND (74.89) and a Navy
(66.82) is the margin of victory (ND by +8) on a neutral
field.

Ratings can be calculated with virtual any game data such as yards, attempts, completions, etc. or scoring margins, ratios, etc.


Five power rating services were averaged for the original
post: Congrove, Keeper-Predictive, Marsee, Pigskin and
Sagarin-Predictive.

College Football Poll, Congrove Computer Rankings

Keeper's College Football Ratings,

http://www.marsee.net/09rnk.txt

USATODAY.com

College Pigskin Index - 2008
 
Easton Pa ND Fan

Easton Pa ND Fan

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Agree..

Agree..

NDinL.A. said:
Tom does these type of things throughout the year, to give a reference for us to see how a computer 'thinks' in comparison to how we all think and how the experts all think. Computers turn out to be right a lot of the time, and of course they're way off a time. It's done just to spark thought and conversation, nothing more...
Click to expand...

Power ratings put a number to what 'experts' predict.
Most expert predictions are made with audience coverage
in mind (Game Day?). Over the years, I bought into the
ND hype and was disappointed. There had to be a better
way.

Bingo, the Dunkel Index column in my local paper. You
could match any team combination and the scoring mar-
gin.

It evolved into tracking weekly power ratings (11)
vs 30-40 team's scoring and margin of victory list-
ed in the 'odds' section of the paper.

(Enter the computer) With 25 columns of data and
30-40 rows per week, it dawned that one week's data
might predict the next week (since updated ratings
should reflect the next game).

Went out an bought predictive software ('Neuralyst')
that does just that. The only problem is that not
every service is accurate every week, so the pre-
dictions, at best, match the best of the eleven
but rarely exceed them...Tom

ThePredictionTracker NCAA RESULTS

<FONT FACE="Arial Black" SIZE="4"><FONT COLOR="#008040">G</FONT><FONT COLOR="#008040">O</FONT><FONT COLOR="#008040"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#008040">I</FONT><FONT COLOR="#006060">R</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">I</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">S</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">H</FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#004080">!</FONT><FONT COLOR="#002B55">!</FONT><BR><FONT COLOR="#00152B"></FONT><FONT COLOR="#000000"></FONT></FONT>

 
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