FYI: Talent adds 41% to 49% to team's win%...

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

as measured by the team recruiting points that are listed
on the same page as Rivals 5, 4 and 3 star breakdown.

Team points, representing an estimate of the scholarship tal-
ent signed each year, correlate nicely with the 117 D1 team's
seasonal win %.

Specifically, Rivals 2002-05 pts vs the 2005 win % showed
a .4534 relationship.

Rivals 2003-06 pts vs the 2006 win % yielded .4133.

When the above data was merged and averaged, the yield
jumped to .4900.

What is the advantage? You have real numbers that give you
a 41%+ head start on deciding who will win based on talent
AND not just opinion.

Pasted below is a win % probability table for Notre Dame
playing Georgia Tech and Boston College. While the win %
range was developed from 8 columns of power ratings, the
indirect effect (.4900) of the larger Rivals numbers can
be seen in the higher win % numbers. Enjoy...Tom

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</PRE>

 

[Z-Bo]

OK... now explain to the rest of us what you just said.

 

[NDboy15]

lol yeah.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

FYI: Reply to Z-Bo and NDboy15...

FYI: Reply to Z-Bo and NDboy15...

Four sets (team vs Opponent Strength) of power ratings were
compared to the seasonal win percentages (win %) of117 D1 schools. When the computer could duplicate with reasonable accuracy, the solutions were applied to update (this season) ratings of ND and the Irish opponents, the results are pasted in the original post.

what was noticed was a relationship between win percentages
and both power ratings and Rivals talent points. Note: a correlation does not mean one causes the other, rather a relationship is identified. The higher the talent point numbers, the more likely a team is to have higher win percentages. The relationships to win % are pasted below...Enjoy


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[dudexcore]

i always enjoy your posts, Easton PA ND Fan!

 

[kjones]

I still don't get how you apply the data correlating season win percentage to Rivals data on recruiting to the outcome on individual games...

 

[johnnd05]

I still don't get how you apply the data correlating season win percentage to Rivals data on recruiting to the outcome on individual games...

Yo, kjones! Good to see you back, brother!

 

[kjones]

Thanks for the welcome! I'll make a thread devoted to me that nobody will post in to give some more explanation