BCS Math (including why LSU can't play in the Rose Bowl)

[Vince Young]

Yes, you read that right. If Florida goes to the championship game, the Rose Bowl can't pick LSU unless the Sugar Bowl gives them permission to. More on that later. But first...

Alrighty, here's the BCS math today!

For anyone who's head spins at trying to follow the BCS selection criteria, I've done my best to break it down in such a manner that even an Ohio State graduate can understand it. Here goes...

We'll start with my projection of what the top 14 of the BCS standings will look like later today. Remember, only the conference champs and the top 14 are eligible.

1) Ohio State
2) Florida
3) Michigan
4) LSU
5) USC
6) Louisville
7) Wisconsin
8) Boise State
9) Notre Dame
10) Oklahoma
11) Arkansas
12) Auburn
13) Virginia Tech
14) West Virginia

Yeah, yeah, I put Florida ahead of Michigan. Just for fun we'll reverse those later and take another look, but for now I had to just pick one of 'em.

Now, the selection rules...

Rule 1: Top two teams go in the title game. Duh.

Rule 2: All the major conference champs get guaranteed spots. That'd be Ohio State (Big Ten), Florida (SEC), USC (Pac-10), Louisville (Big East), Oklahoma (Big 12) and Wake Forest (ACC). Wake Forest won't finish in the top 14, but they're in anyway for winning their conference.

Rule 3: A minor conference champ that finishes in the top 12 is guaranteed a chance to be annihilated by a REAL team. Hi, Boise State! As the WAC champ with a #8 ranking, you're in. Enjoy the pain!

Rule 4: The Notre Dame rule. If we're top 8, we're guaranteed a spot. Too bad we'll finish at #9. D'oh!

Rules 5 and 6: These rules are a little complicated, but the way they work out this year, if any at-large teams don't win their conference but still finish #3 or #4, they're guaranteed spots in BCS games. Michigan and LSU, you're in.

So, your guaranteed teams are as follows:
Ohio State
Florida
USC
Louisville
Oklahoma
Wake Forest
Boise State
Michigan
LSU

That's 9 teams with guaranteed spots. There's room for 10 in the BCS, which means now it's time to play with the at-large teams! Take out the automatic qualifiers above, and here's who you're left with:

Wisconsin
Notre Dame
Arkansas
Auburn
Virginia Tech
West Virginia

But wait! There's more! Each conference is only allowed to have 2 teams in the BCS. The SEC already has Florida and LSU as guaranteed teams. Sorry, Arkansas and Auburn! And the Big Ten already has Ohio State and Michigan as guaranteed teams. Sorry, Wisconsin!

That leaves only 3 teams eligible for the final at-large spot: Notre Dame, Virginia Tech and West Virginia. Of those three, Notre Dame is the highest ranked AND brings guaranteed money, fans and ratings to the table at levels that West By-God Virginia and Virginia By-God Tech can only dream of. They'll both cry a lot, then go somewhere else and get blown out in the Karma's-A-Bitch Bowl.

And now it's time to figure out who goes where.

The This-Isn't-An-"And-One-Game" Bowl: That'll be yer top 2 teams, yessiree bob, in this case Ohio State vs. Florida.

The other games all have conference tie-ins, but because the #1 team is the Big Ten champ, the Rose Bowl gets first pick of a team to replace the Big Ten champ. The #2 team is the SEC champ, so the Sugar Bowl gets second pick. After that, it goes into the normal BCS rotation, which this year runs Sugar, then Orange, then Fiesta.

Rose Bowl:
Pac-10 champ: USC
Pick #1 to replace the Big Ten champ (but NOT an SEC team! More on that below...)

Sugar Bowl:
Pick #2 to replace the SEC champ
Pick #3

Orange Bowl:
ACC champ: Wake Forest
Pick #4

Fiesta Bowl:
Big 12 champ: Oklahoma
Pick #5

Now here's a nasty little caveat to who the Rose Bowl gets to pick in compensation for losing Big Ten champ Ohio State to the championship game. Quoting now...

"When two bowls lose host teams, then the bowl losing the number one team may not select a replacement team from the same Conference as the number two team, unless the bowl losing the number two team consents."

Basically, that rule is there to protect the conference tie-ins, thus ensuring that the Bowl game that loses the #2 team to the championship game can at least get the next-best team from the same conference. Florida is from the SEC, as is LSU, so the Rose Bowl can't select LSU unless the Sugar Bowl gives their permission.

So to all you LSU fans who jumped the gun and bought Rose Bowl tickets this week? PHBBBBBBBTTTT!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Good luck on eBay. Maybe if you're nice, a Vanderbilt grad will show you how to access the Internets.

Thus for USC's opponent, the Rose Bowl is left with Michigan, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boise State. The obvious choice would be Michigan, right? Big Ten runner-up, strong team, good national following, whalloped Notre Dame earlier this year... except that the Rose Bowl CEO has recently pointed out that Michigan has played in 3 of the last 4 Rose Bowls, so they're concerned about how wise it would be to make that 4 of the last 5. So, maybe Notre Dame vs. USC? Um... we already saw that last week, right? Wasn't pretty... so Louisville then? *snicker* Or Boise State? Um, no. Which pretty much leaves the Rose Bowl committee stuck with Michigan yet again and makes them all huge Penn State or Wisconsin fans for next year.

The Sugar Bowl then gets the next two picks, and here it gets interesting, because I think the team they officially select "first" is considered the home team. Do they pick Notre Dame first and open the door for a Green Jersey game? I think they'd go for that, and then officially select LSU "second."

The Orange Bowl is next, and they have Wake Forest and their choice of either Louisville or Boise State. They'll pick Louisville. And to borrow a phrase from The Blue-Gray Sky, the three people who watch that game can tell the rest of us about it at work the next day.

Last up is Oklahoma and Boise State in the Fiesta Bowl, where they keep the turf green instead of blue, thank you very much. I think I already mentioned "pain" somewhere up above, didn't I? I did? Good.

...

Now... what if I'm wrong on Florida at #2? What if it's Michigan instead? In that case, the 9 guaranteed spots still stay the same, and Notre Dame still fills in the at-large spot. But the selection order changes a bit.

The Rose Bowl still gets the first pick for losing Ohio State. The Sugar Bowl gets the SEC champ Florida, and *poof*! The magical rule that prevents the Rose Bowl from picking LSU goes away, because the Sugar Bowl gets to keep their conference champ and doesn't get protection anymore. So in the Rose Bowl's list of teams they can pick from, LSU replaces Michigan. LSU's never been in the Rose Bowl before, and LSU hasn't already been de-pantsed by USC this season, which gives LSU a distinct edge over Notre Dame. So LSU goes to the Rose Bowl. Insert your own Mardi Gras-Rose Bowl Parade joke here.

The Sugar Bowl is then left with the choice of Notre Dame, Louisville or Boise State. Gee, who do you think they'll pick? The Orange Bowl still gets stuck with Wake Forest-Louisville (hey, I wonder if there's something better showing on the Lifetime Movie Channel), and Boise State still forfeits to Oklahoma in the 2nd quarter after injuries force Boise State's starting QB to start two-waying as a free safety.

What do y'all think? Discuss!

 

[dth31]

As they say in the Guinness commercial: BRILLIANT!!!!!

 

[Pete]

Dude, that is very in depth and very informative. But what if the Sugar gives the Rose permission to take LSU b/c the locals want more "outsiders" to come to New Orleans to spend money. LSU fans will be able to drive in on the 3rd and then leave after the game, where as ND fans will fly in, stay in hotels for a few days, eat in restaurants, etc. They might realize this, and want the other teams fans to do the same, so for that they may pass on LSU.

 

[guff]

I think we need a playoff

 

[tedwick]

Dude, that is very in depth and very informative. But what if the Sugar gives the Rose permission to take LSU b/c the locals want more "outsiders" to come to New Orleans to spend money. LSU fans will be able to drive in on the 3rd and then leave after the game, where as ND fans will fly in, stay in hotels for a few days, eat in restaurants, etc. They might realize this, and want the other teams fans to do the same, so for that they may pass on LSU.

i dunno about that. normally, the closer the fans are, the better. I mean, it'll be in New Orleans, while Baton Rouge is 2 hours away, so it will still be a significant road trip and possibly hotel stays etc. plus, the whole "sugar bowl being held in new orleans with a louisiana team playing" storyline will probably draw viewers like crazy, just like the saints are. I doubt they pass that up with what's happened in New Orleans in the past couple years. but i can certainly see your point.

also, vince, excellent post. i would give you rep, but i've got to spread it around!

 

[Pete]

i dunno about that. normally, the closer the fans are, the better. I mean, it'll be in New Orleans, while Baton Rouge is 2 hours away, so it will still be a significant road trip and possibly hotel stays etc. plus, the whole "sugar bowl being held in new orleans with a louisiana team playing" storyline will probably draw viewers like crazy, just like the saints are. I doubt they pass that up with what's happened in New Orleans in the past couple years. but i can certainly see your point.

also, vince, excellent post. i would give you rep, but i've got to spread it around!

Thats true, and those LSU fans are pretty rabid

 

[Vince Young]

i dunno about that. normally, the closer the fans are, the better. I mean, it'll be in New Orleans, while Baton Rouge is 2 hours away, so it will still be a significant road trip and possibly hotel stays etc. plus, the whole "sugar bowl being held in new orleans with a louisiana team playing" storyline will probably draw viewers like crazy, just like the saints are. I doubt they pass that up with what's happened in New Orleans in the past couple years. but i can certainly see your point.

Exactly. That's why I don't think the Sugar Bowl would give the Rose Bowl permission to "steal" LSU.

But... just for fun...

Let's go back to the Ohio State-Florida title game scenario. LSU would certainly be a more attractive team to the Rose Bowl than either Michigan (3 of the last 4 Rose Bowls) or Notre Dame ("Nice butt-kicking.") So let's say the Sugar Bowl CEO also thought Enron was a good stock and lets LSU go to the Rose Bowl.

Who does that leave the Sugar Bowl to pick for its two spots? Michigan, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boise State.

Does ANY combination of those four teams look palatable?

Just one more reason why the Sugar Bowl will hold onto LSU.

 

[jerseyborn1971]

I can't wait to hear the grumblings across the nation when ND is selected. Quickly followed by the "LSU is going to kill Notre Lame" comments. Maybe, maybe not, but that's 2 in a row for CW bitches.

 

[kjones]

So, we basically want Michigan to be ranked higher than Florida, because we'd rather play Florida than LSU right? I guess I dont' really care which we play, as long as we kick their freakin heads in.

 

[Pete]

VY, looks like you are correct, just saw this on DD-

We're bound for the Big Easy. The SBT caught up with Sugar Bowl exec Paul Hoolahan late last night and confirmed it; the only question is who we're going to play, the Tigers or the Gators.

But if the Gators jump Michigan in the BCS standings, then Michigan and USC will square off in the Rose, and Sugar Bowl CEO Paul Hoolahan confirmed Saturday night that LSU would be ND's Sugar Bowl opponent.
Hoolahan, by the way, had some very complimentary things to say about Notre Dame yesterday, and the impact an Irish trip could make on the recovering city:

"The tradition is hard to match," Hoolahan said of what makes ND an attractive option to match against the SEC champ. "And we just need to make a statement in our city. And I think Notre Dame people would do that on so many different levels and help become a part of what's going to be a cog in the whole recovery."

Hurricane Katrina, the costliest and one of the deadliest hurricanes in U.S. history, forced the Sugar Bowl to relocate in Atlanta last season. The Sugar Bowl is back, and the $175 million it will bring in to New Orleans is only part of the elixir the city seeks. Shining a national spotlight on the protracted relief and rebuilding efforts is also high on the wish list.

"There are other teams that could have done that to a lesser extent," Hoolahan said, "but what New Orleans needs is a well-heeled program to come into their city, spend time, spend money, and be part of the whole recovery. When you can deliver Notre Dame and all the mystique and aura that goes with it, it just brings a new element. And we need a break -- let the rest of the country see we're back in business and operating at good speed."
So, for the title match: Gators, or Wolverines? The BCS Selection Show is on Fox tonight at 8pm. The Coaches and Harris Polls have usually been coming out earlier in the day on Sundays, but I wouldn't be surprised if they postpone the release until the show tonight. After all, the Fiesta is already set (Oklahoma versus Boise State) and so is the Orange (Wake Forest versus Louisville), so the only real drama left is who will face Ohio State in Glendale.

By any reasonable standard, it should be Florida. Michigan had their shot. And after sleeping on it, I think the polls are going to reflect that same sentiment and send the Gators to Glendale.

The Gators made a compelling, indelible case for themselves yesterday, and as we well know, college football is a game of What Have You Done For Me Lately. All those #2 votes that went to Southern Cal are up for grabs, and it would be foolish to think that just because Michigan held a slim edge over Florida as of yesterday morning that all those #2's are automatically going to transfer to the Wolverines. Furthermore, I can't see the same voters who busted Michigan down to #3 last week, signaling a sharp distaste for a rematch of UM-OSU, suddenly switch gears and endorse that rematch now, especially when there is another attractive option (like a 12-1 SEC champion) on the table.

But stranger things have happened. We'll find out soon enough

http://www.domerdomain.com/forum/viewtopic.php?t=7125

 

[tedwick]

Exactly. That's why I don't think the Sugar Bowl would give the Rose Bowl permission to "steal" LSU.

But... just for fun...

Let's go back to the Ohio State-Florida title game scenario. LSU would certainly be a more attractive team to the Rose Bowl than either Michigan (3 of the last 4 Rose Bowls) or Notre Dame ("Nice butt-kicking.") So let's say the Sugar Bowl CEO also thought Enron was a good stock and lets LSU go to the Rose Bowl.

Who does that leave the Sugar Bowl to pick for its two spots? Michigan, Notre Dame, Louisville and Boise State.

And yeah. 2 years, 2 BCS bowls. I really want to win one eventually, but being one of the top 16 teams in the land for the first two years of a head coaching gig is no small feat. return to glory. this time it's for real. : D

Does ANY combination of those four teams look palatable?

Just one more reason why the Sugar Bowl will hold onto LSU.

Very good point. The one matchup that would be reasonably attractive and competitive has already been played, and proved to be not so competitive. The Sugar will hang on to LSU.

 

[RichardRiot]

Agree with Vince's post, but the two criteria in the BCS formula for Automatic Qualification that I never understood the language of are:

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

Isn't the bolded part covered by allowing only 2 teams from a conference? If Michigan were to go to the NC game, and Wiscy had been 3 or 4, they would have been excluded because there would already have been 2 B-10 teams.

Not sure why they need the comment. Or am I missing something?

 

[tedwick]

Agree with Vince's post, but the two criteria in the BCS formula for Automatic Qualification that I never understood the language of are:

5. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 4, and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 3 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier, provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

6. If any of the 10 slots remain open after application of provisions 1 through 5, and if no team qualifies under paragraph No. 5 and an at-large team from a conference with an annual automatic berth for its champion is ranked No. 4 in the final BCS Standings, that team will become an automatic qualifier provided that no at-large team from the same conference qualifies for the national championship game.

Isn't the bolded part covered by allowing only 2 teams from a conference? If Michigan were to go to the NC game, and Wiscy had been 3 or 4, they would have been excluded because there would already have been 2 B-10 teams.

Not sure why they need the comment. Or am I missing something?

For #5: It seems like what it's saying would only happen very rarely. It would require 2 teams from the same conference to be ranked #2 and #3, and neither of them are the conference champs. Normally, an at-large team that's ranked #3 would get an automatic bid. But if the conference champ already has an automatic bid, and the other at-large team from that conference is going to the national championship game, then the #3 team looses the automatic bid. It would likely get an at-large bid, but it's no longer automatic.

For #6: Same thing, but the at-large teams are ranked #2 and #4.

I'm not sure the intention of the rule, but it basically makes it impossible for a conference to get 3 automatic bids (1 for the conference champ, 1 for being #2, then one for being #3 or #4 under rules 5 and 6.)

 

[NDismylife21]

That was the most disgutingly intellectual breakdown of the BCS as I have ever read. Personally I want to play Herban Meijer in the Sugar. Florida pretty much runs a HS offense, but whatever works for them. I just really want to see Herb's face when the BCS comes out with UM on top.