Your off game day stats predict opponent's score!

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

IrishEnvy Readers,

Can your offensive game stats predict your opponent's scoring? Yes, as crazy as it sounds.

I was surprised that there was an relationship between an opponent's scoring and the home team's offensive game stats. In a way it does make sense, while you are scoring, the opponent's offense is benched. That is why some of the numbers have a negative sign.

The table below lists actual correlations between 'home' team offensive game stats and the tot game pts, home score, OPPONENT'S SCORE (D-pts) and margin.

The numbers were developed from the season averages of 117 teams. While mathematically correct, the data may not fit precisely to any one particular game. Enjoy...Tom



TotPt…Score…D-Pts…Margn…OffGameStats

0.587…0.871…-0.260…0.724…Totyds/play
0.676…0.883…-0.161…0.676…Totyds/game
0.461…0.747…-0.278…0.653…Passyds/play
0.429…0.670…-0.228…0.572…Rushyds/play
0.085…0.462…-0.425…0.548…TurnoverM
0.360…0.565…-0.195…0.485…Rushyds/game
0.457…0.511…-0.010…0.343…Passyds/game
0.516…0.470…0.111…0.247…Totplays/game
0.162…0.285…-0.123…0.259…Rushplays/game



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[Óglaigh_na_hÉireann]

..I was never very good at math.

 

[guff]

Alright I'm man enough to admit it. You lost me about three threads back. I thought I was good with math but anything other than whole numbers makes my head hurt.

I appreciate the effort. It can't be easy to do all the stat analyzing that you do.

 

[Easton Pa ND Fan]

A better explanation...

A better explanation...

Alright I'm man enough to admit it. You lost me about three threads back. I thought I was good with math but anything other than whole numbers makes my head hurt.

I appreciate the effort. It can't be easy to do all the stat analyzing that you do.

guff,

Those numbers under each column head are the relationship to the stat at the end of the row. Using Tot yds/game as an example.

If the number under "score" is 0.883, a 100% increase in that row's stat of "Tot yds/game" means a probable 88.3% increase in score. If Kent St doubles the av tot yds/game for the season, Kent's score should go from 16.36 av/game to 30.81

Even you opponent's scoring ("D-pts") is affected by your team's tot yds/game average. If Kent St played ND and Kent had double it's yds/game average, ND should score 16.1% less points (-.161 under "D-pts) on average. Tom

<FONT FACE="System" SIZE="5"><FONT COLOR="#006699">G</FONT><FONT COLOR="#006699">o</FONT><FONT COLOR="#006699"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#009966">I</FONT><FONT COLOR="#009966">r</FONT><FONT COLOR="#009966">i</FONT><FONT COLOR="#009966">s</FONT><FONT COLOR="#009966">h</FONT><FONT COLOR="#80B280"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#FFCC99">G</FONT><FONT COLOR="#FFCC99">o</FONT><FONT COLOR="#FFCC99"> </FONT><FONT COLOR="#FFCC99">!</FONT></FONT>