ND vs schedule: early points estimate...

Easton Pa ND Fan · Jun 29, 2006

ND vs opponent's scoring. Numbers based on averaged power ratings modified by exiting/entering talent (2nd attempt)...Tom

<pre>Team … ND … Opp … M Ga T … 31 … 18 … 13 Pa S … 25 … 22 … 3 Mich … 28 … 20 … 8 Mi S … 30 … 18 … 12 Prde … 33 … 17 … 16 Stfd … 36 … 16 … 20 UCLA … 32 … 17 … 15 Navy … 35 … 16 … 19 N C … 33 … 16 … 17 A F … 37 … 15 … 22 Army … 37 … 16 … 21 USC … 25 … 22 … 3 </pre>

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BigIrish · Jun 29, 2006

so you're telling us that these numbers suggest the Irish will go undefeated this fall? eh...

PMac · Jun 29, 2006

more than 3 teams will score 20 on us. I agree with you in that we should go undefeated but there is a good chance of a letdown or upset since our schedule is difficult

rattfink · Jun 29, 2006

How'd you come up with these numbers? Just curious.

Dannyboy Ayers · Jun 29, 2006

It strikes me funny that you think we wont go over 40 one time this year and that army will get 16 and that NC will get 17 on us I don't put that much on their offense. I am saying mor than 30 on the University of Southern Criminals ( USC )

jiggafini19 · Jun 29, 2006

I have the math ability of a Clydesdale, but I have to think that those numbers are flawed in some way just based on the fact that they're all pretty much the same in every game.

The scores against the two toughest teams based on last year are the same:

25-22 against both Penn State and USC.

Interesting nonetheless.

Easton Pa ND Fan · Jun 29, 2006

rattfink,

Determining the score and margin for each team:

1. Av of 7 power ratings (per team) x (Rivals current 4yr total recruiting points/last yrs 4 yr points) = new power ratings.

2. ND - opponent (using new ratings) = new scoring margin.

3. (New/old power rating) x av pts/game (per team) = new points scored.

4. When I put the data in columns, the scoring margin was added to the opponents new points scored numbers to get the ND points scored. Otherwise, ND would have had the same points scored for every game!

Tom

Easton Pa ND Fan · Jun 29, 2006

jiggafini19 said:
I have the math ability of a Clydesdale, but I have to think that those numbers are flawed in some way just based on the fact that they're all pretty much the same in every game.

The scores against the two toughest teams based on last year are the same:

25-22 against both Penn State and USC.

Interesting nonetheless.

jiggafini19,

I used three sets of numbers: season ending power ratings, av points per game and Rivals 4 yr recruiting points. No spin added (see rattfink reply).

SPIN:
-Will we go undefeated? This year is the best chance due to future attrition with the Ty recruits.
-Will we score 40+ per game? Maybe, but why risk your best players - use ball control running game.
-Will Army and NC score 2 or more touchdowns? Sure, if your winning, let the freshmen get experience.
-Will Penn St and USC have the same scoring margin? Not likely. I think the ND defense will be improved, but these teams can score. So can ND. Look for a high scoring game with USC and a lopsided victory over Penn St.
-Will opponents score 20+ points per game? I doubt it. Improved defense and ball control offense keeps competition on sideline.

Tom

jiggafini19 · Jun 29, 2006

Easton Pa ND Fan said:
rattfink,

Determining the score and margin for each team:

1. Av of 7 power ratings (per team) x Rivals current 4yr total recruiting points/last yrs 4 yr points = new power ratings.

2. ND - opponent (using new ratings) = new scoring margin.

3. New/old power rating x av pts/game (per team) = new points scored.

4. When I put the data in columns, the points scored net sometimes differed from the margin by 1 or 2 points; in those cases, the net score was used.

Tom

This is why I majored in communications.

They'd better beat Army by more than 3 touchdowns. That game should be over by halftime, even though CW hasn't shown any indication that he likes to run it up.

SC plays Cal the week before, UCLA the week after Notre Dame. I see this and my mind is less ill at ease.

After playing GT and PSU, that Michigan game worries me. Their first two games are cakewalks before they come to South Bend. If there is one game I fear them losing more than any other, it is Michigan.

Folsteam_Ahead · Jun 29, 2006

jiggafini19 said:
After playing GT and PSU, that Michigan game worries me. Their first two games are cakewalks before they come to South Bend. If there is one game I fear them losing more than any other, it is Michigan.

i'm scared of that game too. i think the 28-20 prediction is accurate though. probably the best of the list. but think about how scared michigan is....that's what keeps me from worrying too much.

jiggafini19 · Jun 29, 2006

06ntlchmps said:
i'm scared of that game too. i think the 28-20 prediction is accurate though. probably the best of the list. but think about how scared michigan is....that's what keeps me from worrying too much.

The only sport I put any stock into emotional and intangible factors into is football.

That Penn State game is going to be wild. And they're a pretty good team, too. Great linebacker trio. great receivers.

Win or lose, coming back down from that game to face Michigan is not going to be easy. They have the talent to cause a lot of problems for an ND defense that has a lot of question marks.

I honestly think that Michigan will be ND's only loss this season.

PMac · Jun 29, 2006

how good are Michigan and GT on defense?

btw don't forget about Michigan RB Mike Hart was out against ND last year, so they will be better running the ball this time around probably

jiggafini19 · Jun 29, 2006

PMac said:
how good are Michigan and GT on defense?

Georgia Tech's defensive unit is solid. And they have one of the best defensive coordinators in the business in Jon Tenuta. He and Weis should have a pretty interesting chess game that day.

Their front 7 is very good, especially their outside linebackers KaMichael Hall and Philip Wheeler. The secondary is depleted, but the returning man Kenny Scott is a quality player. The three of them were All ACC last year on a defense that was ranked in the top 25.

As for Michigan, I think one of their main issues was the fourth quarter last year. Opponents outscored them 97-81 in the fourth. They have a lot of new coaches on defense as well. Only once has someone in this rivalry won three in a row.

Their offense is really what worries me the most. Hart and Breaston were not healthy most of last year. Chad Henne could either turn the corner this year or be John Navarre. In the end, I just don't like having to play them one week after Penn State.

rattfink · Jun 29, 2006

Easton Pa ND Fan said:
rattfink,

Determining the score and margin for each team:

1. Av of 7 power ratings (per team) x Rivals current 4yr total recruiting points/last yrs 4 yr points = new power ratings.

2. ND - opponent (using new ratings) = new scoring margin.

3. New/old power rating x av pts/game (per team) = new points scored.

4. When I put the data in columns, the points scored net sometimes differed from the margin by 1 or 2 points; in those cases, the net score was used.

Tom

An interesting and analytical way to look at the coming season this far in advance.

GREENJERSEYS'07 · Jul 5, 2006

I'll take the 28-20 over michigan.That game bothers me for some reason.Sorta like the tennessee game did last year.
if for some reason something does go wrong that day at least I hope michigan doesn't have another 3 loss season.
I don't know it's kinda crazy,I should be letting the team focus on one game at a time and be enjoying this all the way to the fiesta bowl in hopes of a perfect season :rock:

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