Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2019

BGIF

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Tropical Storm Barry

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/054718.shtml?gm_track#contents

At 100 AM CDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Barry was
located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 89.8 West. Barry is
moving toward the west near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow west-
northwestward to northwestward motion is expected to begin later
today, followed by a turn toward the north on Saturday. On the
forecast track, the center of Barry will be near or over the central
or southeastern coast of Louisiana Friday night or Saturday, and
then move inland into the Lower Mississippi Valley on Sunday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate
that the maximum sustained winds remain near 50 mph (85 km/h) with
higher gusts. Some strengthening is expected during the next day
or so, and Barry could become a hurricane Friday night or early
Saturday when the center is near the Louisiana coast.
Weakening is
expected after Barry moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
primarily to the south and east of the center.

The minimum central pressure just measured by an Air Force
reconnaissance aircraft was 1001 mb (29.56 inches).


RAINFALL: Barry is expected to produce total rain accumulations of
10 to 20 inches over southeast Louisiana and southwest Mississippi,
with isolated maximum amounts of 25 inches. These rains are expected
to lead to dangerous, life-threatening flooding over portions of the
central Gulf Coast into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Over the
remainder of the Lower Mississippi Valley, total rain accumulations
of 4 to 8 inches are expected, with isolated maximum amounts of 12
inches.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the Hurricane Warning
area by Friday night or Saturday morning, with tropical storm
conditions expected to begin on Friday. Hurricane conditions are
possible within the Hurricane Watch area by Friday night or
Saturday morning. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to spread
across the Tropical Storm Warning area starting early Friday, with
tropical storm conditions possible in the Tropical Storm Watch area
by Friday night or Saturday.

TORNADOES: A few tornadoes are possible Friday and Friday night
across southeast Louisiana, far southern Mississippi, and the
Alabama coast.
 

House16

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Question from a total newb to hurricanes. How long in advance is it possible to predict a hurricane making landfall? I have a trip to Cancun planned for September (height of hurricane season) but it’s 100% refundable. So, we need to know when to start watching the forecast to potentially rebook
 

calvegas04

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Question from a total newb to hurricanes. How long in advance is it possible to predict a hurricane making landfall? I have a trip to Cancun planned for September (height of hurricane season) but it’s 100% refundable. So, we need to know when to start watching the forecast to potentially rebook

I think the normally project them about 5 days out or so. But even then they are always adjusting path for the hurricane
 

Irish2155

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GF has family there who chose not to evacuate. Wishing the best for them and hope their role of the dice lands on 7.
 

BGIF

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Here Comes Dorian!

Here Comes Dorian!

Hello Florida!

Currently 90 miles N of San Juan. Puerto Rico Power Grid catching a break.

Looking like a potential Cat 3 storm at this point.

Spaghetti Models mostly predicating FL landfall but some have it heading up the Atlantic coast. Others at this time have it then heading across FL than north to Tallahassee. Several show Jacksonville in the path. Lots of variables.

11 PM NHC shows center of the cone heading for Melbourne across to Kissimmee. Arriving at the FL coast with 110 mph winds around 8 pm Sunday. BUT the outer edges of the cone range from the Southern Tip of FL up to St Catherine's Island, GA ... a lot of territory.

Tropical force winds are expected by Sunday morning but Saturday football games could be impacted by wind fields.

.
 

Irish#1

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Son and family live in the Jax area. He called yesterday and said prep mode began in earnest a few days ago. The WalMart in his area is already out of water.
 

BGIF

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Saturday FBS Games Changing Networks per ESPN

Saturday FBS Games Changing Networks per ESPN

12 ET BSU @ FSU Moving from ESPN to ESPNEWS (was scheduled for 7 ET)

7:30ET GSU @ #6 LSU Moving from ESPUN to SEC Network

7:30 ET #3 UGA @ VU Moving from SEC Network to ESPN
 

Irish2155

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Son and family live in the Jax area. He called yesterday and said prep mode began in earnest a few days ago. The WalMart in his area is already out of water.

Mom and her BF have a place in Daytona off the ocean. It just flooded and got all kinds of beat up a couple years ago with the last hurricane. This one looks like it could be stronger than that one.
 

dad4aa

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In-laws live in New Smyrna Beach, flying up today to escape the weather. Rode out the last one at home and won’t do that again.
 

irishnd31

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In-laws live in New Smyrna Beach, flying up today to escape the weather. Rode out the last one at home and won’t do that again.

Smart move.
Thoughts are with all. Looks like its going to be a dick of a storm.
 

irishnd31

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Mom and her BF have a place in Daytona off the ocean. It just flooded and got all kinds of beat up a couple years ago with the last hurricane. This one looks like it could be stronger than that one.

Stayed at the Wyndham Ocean Walk last year. One of my favorite vacation spots. Condo overlooked the Bandshell. Got hit with some rough storms there but I can not imagine what they are in store for if this is as bad as most think. Thoughts out to your mom and BF.
 

BGIF

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As of now Dorian's supposed to enter FL by the St Pierce Inlet move inland about 10 miles or so than turn about 45 degrees and head NW paralleling the coast up to JAX.

The upper reaches of the Treasure Coast, the Space Coast, and the First Coast would be getting a lot of hours of high wind and torrential rain. At 13 mph it could take something like 17 hours to travel from St Pierce Inlet to JAX ... all the time replenishing the rain bands over the ocean.


"Hey Lord, what's a cubit?"
 

BGIF

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Dorian's a CAT 4. Moving NNW at 12 MPH threating the Northern Bahamas.

Current Projections have it hugging the FL coastline and now looking at landfall in GA around Beaufort or further north in GA or SC, or NC.

Most Spaghetti Models have it hitting GA, SC, or NC but drowning Eastern FL. One model has Dorian going to Kansas. Rock, Chalk, Dorian!

Still a couple of days away.
 
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BGIF

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Looking Like Good News.

Looking Like Good News.

Tonight's Forecast Track Line has Dorian making a turn to the north, north of Grand Bahama to parallel the FL coastline for 2 days than turning in the vicinity of Brunswick GA to parallel the US coastline in GA, SC, and NC up to Jacksonville NC. Still forecasting Hurricane strength when it reaches the Outer Banks area,
 

Legacy

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Dorian, now a Cat 5, hits the Bahamas with sustained winds of 185 mph and gusts to 220 mph. Its eyewall is 25 nautical miles across. Dorian tied the record for the most powerful Atlantic hurricane ever to come ashore, equaling the Labor Day hurricane of 1935, before the storms were named. The only recorded storm that was more powerful was Hurricane Allen in 1980, with its 190 mph winds. That storm did not make landfall. I hope we jump in to help with the terrible devastation. Maria, which hit Puerto Rico, had sustained winds of 175mph.
 
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BGIF

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Sitting here watching the weather channel update on Dorian. It's centered over Grand Bahama Island (GBI) which is 17 miles wide (North to South) and 96 miles long (East to West). Dorian's bisecting the island east to west. Currently it's moving East to West BUT only at 2 MPH so it is essentially stalled. By comparison a good walking pace is 4 mph (15 minute mile). Dorian is sauntering along at a rate of 30 minutes to move a mile.

Abaco Island (East of GBI) which was ravaged earlier is still getting winds in the 160-180 mph range as well as biblical rain.

The GBI Airport near Freeport sits at the apex of a bay which is funneling the water, waves and rain, into that bay with the counterclockwise rotation of Dorian. The Airport at Elevation 6.5 is 5 feet underwater at this time. That would put the water level at 11.5 feet above sea level. The highest point on GBI is a rock 40 above sea level.
 

Legacy

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BBC Weather reports that the winds at the core of the storm are spinning so fast that the centre is collapsing on itself, stalling over the area and weakening the storm's eye. This is making it expand and cause damage over a larger area. It's slowing to 1 mph, dumping huge amounts of rain. Weakening to Cat 4 winds, the storm surge due to high tides was estimated at 10-20'. We're going to see the kind of devastation that rivals the tsunamani in Japan without the dramatic video. We've had four Cat 5 hurricanes since 2016 hit our country on landfall, but never with cities on the coast. An example of what the damage may be should one with a direct hit on Miami.
 

Irish YJ

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Cack just received an alert saying they eye could be as little as 5 miles off the coast where he is (he's 5 miles in), so he and his fam are evacuating. Keep him (and everyone impacted) in your prayers.
 

BGIF

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Tropical Storm Humberto Says Hola To N.W. Bahamas

Tropical Storm Humberto Says Hola To N.W. Bahamas

At 200 AM EDT (0600 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Humberto was
located near latitude 25.8 North, longitude 75.6 West. Humberto is
moving toward the northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h). A turn toward the
north-northwest is expected by Sunday, with a slower northward
motion forecast to occur by Monday. On the forecast track, the
system is anticipated to move very near the northwestern Bahamas
today, and offshore of the east coast of Florida this weekend and
early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 40 mph (65 km/h) with higher
gusts. Gradual strengthening is forecast, and Humberto
is expected to become a hurricane in two or three days.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For the first time in almost 50 years, the Atlantic Ocean has five tropical cyclones simultaneously. It's only the second instance on record. <a href="https://t.co/APvRMBW9N4">https://t.co/APvRMBW9N4</a> <a href="https://t.co/56mQbxDNE8">pic.twitter.com/56mQbxDNE8</a></p>— ABC News (@ABC) <a href="https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1305499241020895234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Maybe if we stop testing for hurricanes so much we wont have as many.
 

GowerND11

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<blockquote class="twitter-tweet"><p lang="en" dir="ltr">For the first time in almost 50 years, the Atlantic Ocean has five tropical cyclones simultaneously. It's only the second instance on record. <a href="https://t.co/APvRMBW9N4">https://t.co/APvRMBW9N4</a> <a href="https://t.co/56mQbxDNE8">pic.twitter.com/56mQbxDNE8</a></p>— ABC News (@ABC) <a href="https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1305499241020895234?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw">September 14, 2020</a></blockquote> <script async src="https://platform.twitter.com/widgets.js" charset="utf-8"></script>

Maybe if we stop testing for hurricanes so much we wont have as many.

And change the criteria of what constitutes a hurricane
 
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