'23 FL DE Keon Keeley (Notre Dame Verbal)

Irish du Nord

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Look, until we get 5 star kids to sign and push into the top 5, it is what it is. I think we have a good chance of changing that. Ohio State has no problem signing 5 star players, regardless of recent developments. Bama recruits better than us. We are like Kansas State to Bama.
Bama stays claiming Natty’s from years they lost to us. They’re an f’ing Ricky Bobby football program lol
 

NorthDakota

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Look, until we get 5 star kids to sign and push into the top 5, it is what it is. I think we have a good chance of changing that. Ohio State has no problem signing 5 star players, regardless of recent developments. Bama recruits better than us. We are like Kansas State to Bama.
No. Kansas State's history is absolute trash other than one coach. Their program is built on 2-3 stars and JUCO guys.

What Snyder did there (TWICE!) is admirable, what Klieman is doing there is respectable. But their ceiling is being a team who doesn't beat themselves and does the little things right.

Notre Dame's ceiling is recruiting some of the best kids in the country and winning a ton of games on talent alone.

The only similarity between K-State and ND is that both schools have some limitations relative to their peers that requires them to do things a bit differently.
 

du Lac

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No. Kansas State's history is absolute trash other than one coach. Their program is built on 2-3 stars and JUCO guys.

What Snyder did there (TWICE!) is admirable, what Klieman is doing there is respectable. But their ceiling is being a team who doesn't beat themselves and does the little things right.

Notre Dame's ceiling is recruiting some of the best kids in the country and winning a ton of games on talent alone.

The only similarity between K-State and ND is that both schools have some limitations relative to their peers that requires them to do things a bit differently.

If I said we are like Bama to Kansas State, which we are, nobody would argue. Flip it and everyone gets their period.

Here are some facts. The gap to 322 is wide, about 47 points last year. In 2021 that gap was 58. 2020 it was 60+. I believe MF will close it more than Kelly. Hold onto Bowen and Keeley and we are getting close. Perhaps KSU at 175 last year was a poor comp to our 100 pts better, but the concept is what matters. I used them as an example as we are currently flipping their RB like Bama is our DE. And the gap isn’t as earthshakingly crazy different between us and KSU and us and Bama as some are pretending.

A better mathematical comp would be we are like Bama to Cal, Pitt, or Mizzou, who reside about 40-60 points lower than us.

If people want to get their panties in a bunch I can’t help that. Beat Ohio State and the gap will close.
 
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Dale

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If I said we are like Bama to Kansas State, which we are, nobody would argue. Flip it and everyone gets their period.

Here are some facts. The gap to 322 is wide, about 47 points last year. In 2021 that gap was 58. 2020 it was 60+. I believe MF will close it more than Kelly. Hold onto Bowen and Keeley and we are getting close. Perhaps KSU at 175 last year was a poor comp to our 100 pts better, but the concept is what matters. I used them as an example as we are currently flipping their RB like Bama is our DE. And the gap isn’t as crazy wide as some are pretending.

A better mathematical comp would be we are like Bama to Cal, Pitt, or Mizzou, who reside about 40-60 points lower than us.

If people want to get their panties in a bunch I can’t help that. Beat Ohio State and the gap will close.

First it’s not linear the talent gap. Let’s put it in terms of NFL talent on the roster.

5 star recruits have roughly a 63% chance of getting drafted, 4 star recruits 22% and 3 star recruits only 5%

So what your math is saying is actually a Cal, Pitt etc team has about only 4 NFL players on average on the team.

ND by simply averaging a 4 star recruit has more than 4x that at an estimated 19 NFL players.

Bama is not averaging a 5 star recruit. Even if I’m being generous averaging about half the roster 5 star and half 4 star (which it’s not), that puts Bama at about 36 NFL players.

Bama is less than 2x as talented as ND while ND is 4.5x as talented as a typical program you offered. I don’t even really agree with this method of fleshing it out and the math is probably off but you get the idea, and it’s jumping off your starting point and showing the gap is quite literally not the same because the gap between these type of recruits are not linear.
 
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du Lac

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First it’s not linear the talent gap. Let’s put it in terms of NFL talent on the roster.

5 star recruits have roughly a 63% chance of getting drafted, 4 star recruits 22% and 3 star recruits only 5%

So what your math is saying is actually a Cal, Pitt etc team has about only 4 NFL players on average on the team.

ND by simply averaging a 4 star recruit has more than 4x that at an estimated 19 NFL players.

Bama is not averaging a 5 star recruit. Even if I’m being generous averaging about half the roster 5 star and half 4 star (which it’s not), that puts Bama at about 36 NFL players.

Bama is 2x as talented as ND while ND is 4.5x as talented as a typical program you offered. I don’t even really agree with this method of fleshing it out but it’s jumping off your starting point and showing the gap is quite literally not the same because the gap between these type of recruits are not linear.
This is an intelligent and persuasive response.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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If I said we are like Bama to Kansas State, which we are, nobody would argue. Flip it and everyone gets their period.

Here are some facts. The gap to 322 is wide, about 47 points last year. In 2021 that gap was 58. 2020 it was 60+. I believe MF will close it more than Kelly. Hold onto Bowen and Keeley and we are getting close. Perhaps KSU at 175 last year was a poor comp to our 100 pts better, but the concept is what matters. I used them as an example as we are currently flipping their RB like Bama is our DE. And the gap isn’t as earthshakingly crazy different between us and KSU and us and Bama as some are pretending.

A better mathematical comp would be we are like Bama to Cal, Pitt, or Mizzou, who reside about 40-60 points lower than us.

If people want to get their panties in a bunch I can’t help that. Beat Ohio State and the gap will close.
Its just a totally stupid statement. Thats all. Relax guy.
 

du Lac

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Its just a totally stupid statement. Thats all. Relax guy.
Dale had a good response. I would love to know why if we are 4x's more talented than KSU and only 2x's less talented than Bama, we have a long history of barely beating teams like FSU and Toledo, while also frequently losing games during the Kelly era like South Florida, Navy, getting demolished by Miami, etc. But, any time we play Bama, Ohio State, Clemson (when they were healthy) we get absolutely demolished.
 

stlnd01

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If I said we are like Bama to Kansas State, which we are, nobody would argue. Flip it and everyone gets their period.

Here are some facts. The gap to 322 is wide, about 47 points last year. In 2021 that gap was 58. 2020 it was 60+. I believe MF will close it more than Kelly. Hold onto Bowen and Keeley and we are getting close. Perhaps KSU at 175 last year was a poor comp to our 100 pts better, but the concept is what matters. I used them as an example as we are currently flipping their RB like Bama is our DE. And the gap isn’t as earthshakingly crazy different between us and KSU and us and Bama as some are pretending.
We flipped Edwards with, like, a phone call. If - and it remains a sizable if - Bama flips Keeley, it took them months, multiple visits, Saban visiting the kid's high school, etc. It is not the same thing at all. And that speaks to the relative recruiting prowess of the three programs.
 

du Lac

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We flipped Edwards with, like, a phone call. If - and it remains a sizable if - Bama flips Keeley, it took them months, multiple visits, Saban visiting the kid's high school, etc. It is not the same thing at all. And that speaks to the relative recruiting prowess of the three programs.
The issue is some mistook it as me comparing the two programs (ND vs KSU). NOBODY thinks there's a comparison. But when Bama beats you by 40 on the field, it looks sus to say we have an overwhelming talent advantage over teams that we lose to like Ok State. Now, when looking at how many guys we send to the NFL vs say a KSU, it does speak volumes. It also speaks volumes about the coaches at those schools that are consistently competitive with and beat ND. Perhaps BK isn't as great of a coach as some think. If Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State can consistently wipe the field with the likes of ND, it doesn't look good, particularly when you look at all the major upsets BK endured during the 12 or whatever years he was at ND.
 

IHateMarkMay

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If I said we are like Bama to Kansas State, which we are, nobody would argue. Flip it and everyone gets their period.

Here are some facts. The gap to 322 is wide, about 47 points last year. In 2021 that gap was 58. 2020 it was 60+. I believe MF will close it more than Kelly. Hold onto Bowen and Keeley and we are getting close. Perhaps KSU at 175 last year was a poor comp to our 100 pts better, but the concept is what matters. I used them as an example as we are currently flipping their RB like Bama is our DE. And the gap isn’t as earthshakingly crazy different between us and KSU and us and Bama as some are pretending.

A better mathematical comp would be we are like Bama to Cal, Pitt, or Mizzou, who reside about 40-60 points lower than us.

If people want to get their panties in a bunch I can’t help that. Beat Ohio State and the gap will close.
I'm assuming the "322" is the team recruiting ranking, so if it isn't, please ignore the following. To be honest, I'm not sure where that number comes form.

The "big dogs" right now seem to be Bama, UGA, and OSU. The last five years of Kelly's full recruiting seasons (2016-2020), they averaged the below points:

Bama: 308.72
UGA: 305.67
OSU: 294.89
Average: 303.09

While ND averaged 255.89, a full 47.2 points below the "big dogs".

Last year, the class remained in tact mostly because of Freeman. We can't give him full credit seeing as Kelly handled most of it. That class ended up at 269.05. The big three were averaged at 314.62. Still pretty far behind at 45.57 points.

This year's class is already at 285.56. The average for the big three right now is 282.27 (which will grow, for sure). If we get the guys we feel like we lead for it'll grow to probably around 300. It'll be about the same if we lose Bowen and Keeley.

So to say we haven't closed the gap on the big three would mean those three, at minimum, would need to average 331.13 (which is us staying at 285.56 and then adding the gap of 45.57 points). How many teams have ever had a class larger than 331.13? One. TAMU last year.

We're closing the gap. Which you noted. However, I think we're closing it more than you are giving Freeman credit for.
 

arahop

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I'm assuming the "322" is the team recruiting ranking, so if it isn't, please ignore the following. To be honest, I'm not sure where that number comes form.

The "big dogs" right now seem to be Bama, UGA, and OSU. The last five years of Kelly's full recruiting seasons (2016-2020), they averaged the below points:

Bama: 308.72
UGA: 305.67
OSU: 294.89
Average: 303.09

While ND averaged 255.89, a full 47.2 points below the "big dogs".

Last year, the class remained in tact mostly because of Freeman. We can't give him full credit seeing as Kelly handled most of it. That class ended up at 269.05. The big three were averaged at 314.62. Still pretty far behind at 45.57 points.

This year's class is already at 285.56. The average for the big three right now is 282.27 (which will grow, for sure). If we get the guys we feel like we lead for it'll grow to probably around 300. It'll be about the same if we lose Bowen and Keeley.

So to say we haven't closed the gap on the big three would mean those three, at minimum, would need to average 331.13 (which is us staying at 285.56 and then adding the gap of 45.57 points). How many teams have ever had a class larger than 331.13? One. TAMU last year.

We're closing the gap. Which you noted. However, I think we're closing it more than you are giving Freeman credit for.
I would give Freeman full credit because the talent was brought in on defense in last years class. I also can't think of a head coach bolting days before signing day and keeping almost the entire class together. Freeman gets way more credit than Kelly without question.
 

TorontoGold

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The issue is some mistook it as me comparing the two programs (ND vs KSU). NOBODY thinks there's a comparison. But when Bama beats you by 40 on the field, it looks sus to say we have an overwhelming talent advantage over teams that we lose to like Ok State. Now, when looking at how many guys we send to the NFL vs say a KSU, it does speak volumes. It also speaks volumes about the coaches at those schools that are consistently competitive with and beat ND. Perhaps BK isn't as great of a coach as some think. If Bama, Clemson, and Ohio State can consistently wipe the field with the likes of ND, it doesn't look good, particularly when you look at all the major upsets BK endured during the 12 or whatever years he was at ND.
Respectfully, what the fuck are you arguing? Like, what is the point you're trying to make? Ok, sure, yes the recruiting has been behind the top 3 as many have noted. Freeman is doing something new right now, so being the I'M a FaCtS gUy shtick is so annoying. Filling your pants because of what happened in the past is not the same as what's happening now since there has been so many changes in recruiting strategy from the prior admin.

The evitable sequence will be the mention of the BCR ratio, in which someone will bring up that ND is closing that gap, and then you will mention the prior losses in the playoffs, the response will be that Clemson won it with a ratio around what ND has now, you will mention it doesn't matter because it depends on what happens in the OSU game, the argument will end because that game has yet to be played.
 

du Lac

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Respectfully, what the fuck are you arguing? Like, what is the point you're trying to make? Ok, sure, yes the recruiting has been behind the top 3 as many have noted. Freeman is doing something new right now, so being the I'M a FaCtS gUy shtick is so annoying. Filling your pants because of what happened in the past is not the same as what's happening now since there has been so many changes in recruiting strategy from the prior admin.

The evitable sequence will be the mention of the BCR ratio, in which someone will bring up that ND is closing that gap, and then you will mention the prior losses in the playoffs, the response will be that Clemson won it with a ratio around what ND has now, you will mention it doesn't matter because it depends on what happens in the OSU game, the argument will end because that game has yet to be played.
The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.
 

TorontoGold

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The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.

I mean, making posts like the below highlights my point about arguing a point everyone has moved on from. Should we post in every thread that we should be skeptical of defensive recruiting because Weis didn't do a great job of it? Besides the point, Kelly had a crazy streak of beating unranked teams so.....it's not even like the point of "frequently losing games" to teams like South Florida is even a salient point. You can see how that weakens the contrarian devils advocate position you want to take.

Dale had a good response. I would love to know why if we are 4x's more talented than KSU and only 2x's less talented than Bama, we have a long history of barely beating teams like FSU and Toledo, while also frequently losing games during the Kelly era like South Florida, Navy, getting demolished by Miami, etc. But, any time we play Bama, Ohio State, Clemson (when they were healthy) we get absolutely demolished.
 

Dale

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The post that set everyone off clearly stated that I think MF is going to close the gap. There were some that flew off the handle bc I compared the gap to Bama in recruiting to ND vs KSU. I was off by 40.

No the issue is to be honest it was another knee jerk grandiose statement and then quickly tried back it up with recruiting rankings based off “well this minus this equals this” so my point was fact. You said ND doesn’t quite get their place in the CFB world and “some are 5 star programs. Some are 3 star programs. ND seems to be a 4 star program until proven otherwise.” Reality is there is no such thing as a 5 star program. A much truer statement that I doubt gets the same push back is Alabama is a 4+ star program, ND is a 4 star program clearly trending up. There is a tangible gap still, but it is no comparison to where we sit and ****ing Kansas State.
 

T Town Tommy

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Closing the gap ranking wise is one thing. Closing the gap and hitting the needs of each position group is entirely different. Miss on a position group a couple of years in a row and that gap that once seemed to be closing is now growing exponentially. Maybe that is what kept BK from taking the next step.
 

SoIll

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We flipped Edwards with, like, a phone call. If - and it remains a sizable if - Bama flips Keeley, it took them months, multiple visits, Saban visiting the kid's high school, etc. It is not the same thing at all. And that speaks to the relative recruiting prowess of the three programs.
Then we should of flipped Novasad and Minchey?
 

Dale

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Closing the gap ranking wise is one thing. Closing the gap and hitting the needs of each position group is entirely different. Miss on a position group a couple of years in a row and that gap that once seemed to be closing is now growing exponentially. Maybe that is what kept BK from taking the next step.

Good point. If ND broke down by position we all already know the result of the Lyght era CB recruiting or Del era WR recruiting and clearly QB.
 

Cackalacky2.0

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Dale had a good response. I would love to know why if we are 4x's more talented than KSU and only 2x's less talented than Bama, we have a long history of barely beating teams like FSU and Toledo, while also frequently losing games during the Kelly era like South Florida, Navy, getting demolished by Miami, etc. But, any time we play Bama, Ohio State, Clemson (when they were healthy) we get absolutely demolished.
WE are no where near being KSU. It was dumb.
 

du Lac

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I mean, making posts like the below highlights my point about arguing a point everyone has moved on from. Should we post in every thread that we should be skeptical of defensive recruiting because Weis didn't do a great job of it? Besides the point, Kelly had a crazy streak of beating unranked teams so.....it's not even like the point of "frequently losing games" to teams like South Florida is even a salient point. You can see how that weakens the contrarian devils advocate position you want to take.
Not likely considering Weis was fired 13 years ago. Also, MF hasn't yet signed a class. It seems premature not to discuss the potential gap closing potential and anoint him as the gap closer. He's doing well, so don't take that for what it's not. I think it was completely salient in the context of Nick Saban also having a streak of beating unranked teams. More salient is that he doesn't barely beat them. In the setting of determining whether that gap is closing, it seems reasonable to look at how we do head to head, how we've performed in big games, and how we beat unranked teams.
WE are no where near being KSU. It was dumb.
Literally nobody said we were.
 
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