2024 College Football Playoffs

[ThePiombino]

No chance. They'll win acc and get a 4 seed or they're gone. No way they affect ND.

Assuming they jump us in ranking, otherwise the scenario is as it is now - they are ranked below us but seeded above us. This giving us a matchup we shouldn't have had.

 

[greyhammer90]

5-6 seed is the holy grail, avoids B10 and SEC winners in 2nd round.

Yeah but its looking more and more likely that those spots are going to end up playing UGA or Bama in the first round. Still, I'd much rather play those at home in December.

 

[Wild Bill]

Assuming they jump us in ranking, otherwise the scenario is as it is now - they are ranked below us but seeded above us. This giving us a matchup we shouldn't have had.

The same would be true if SMU wins the acc. We can't get the 4 seed.

 

[ThePiombino]

The same would be true if SMU wins the acc. We can't get the 4 seed.

Completely understand we can't get a top-4 seed.

 

[LifelongFan]

Miami has no effect on us, being below us. They have no way to win any big games, at least bigger than Army and @USC. And if they win out they get the autobid. If they lose, they are already behind us. Immaterial, same as any other 1 loss team that's behind us.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Miami has no effect on us, being below us. They have no way to win any big games, at least bigger than Army and @USC. And if they win out they get the autobid. If they lose, they are already behind us. Immaterial, same as any other 1 loss team that's behind us.

It shows the committee values 1 loss ND higher than other 1 loss teams. That means something.

 

[Pops Freshenmeyer]

It shows the committee values 1 loss ND higher than other 1 loss teams. That means something.

Except PSU, strangely

PSU’s best win is @USC in overtime. Perhaps ND has a chance to surpass that performance and pass up PSU when they visit at the end of the year.

 

[LifelongFan]

I still think out of every top 12 team, Penn State is the most liable to lose as a favorite this season

 

[Wild Bill]

I still think out of every top 12 team, Penn State is the most liable to lose as a favorite this season

Minnesota is the only hope. Purdue may as well wear panties on Saturdays and they have Maryland at home.

 

[LifelongFan]

Penn State is an odd case. In every other ranking they have, it's clear they value good wins over "good losses", except for this one pedo team.

 

[stlnd01]

Except PSU, strangely

PSU’s best win is @USC in overtime. Perhaps ND has a chance to surpass that performance and pass up PSU when they visit at the end of the year.

Yep. Penn State has one win over a team that was ranked at the time and none over currently-ranked teams. USC in OT is probably their second-best win.

If we beat USC by, say, 10 points, and A&M and Louisville finish decently, the argument for Penn State over us is that their loss is better than our loss by MORE than our 2-4 best wins (depending on Army/Navy) are better than any of theirs?

Make that make sense.

 

[ndfanatic78]

How is ND ranked 8th but is the 9 seed?

Because of Miami/ACC champion first round bye

 

[Rocketman84]

In a post that absolutely no one asked for, I thought I'd put together my completely biased thoughts on ND's chances against this year's playoff contending teams. (Note: This assumes both teams play "well" and nothing crazy happens.) As I've mentioned before, there really isn't anyone that I think would boat race ND off the field. I know the chances of playing some of these teams, based on seedings, is remote, but thought I'd include them all anyway.

1. Oregon - 40% Chance to Win - This game would likely only happen in the semi or final on a neutral site. Admittedly I haven't watched them much this year but they seem to be a pretty complete team.
2. Ohio State - 55% Chance to Win - OSU doesn't scare me, especially their offense. Their defense is good but on a neutral site, I like our chances.
3. Texas - 40% Chance to Win - I think overall, they are a pretty complete team, but nothing stands out as something they do incredibly well, except maybe defense. They will be battle tested. Could be a rock fight similar to Texas A&M.
4. Penn State - 85% Chance to Win - Give me this matchup all day and twice on Saturday. I think we'd win this by double digits.
5. Indiana - 70% Chance to Win - I like our chances here. A big factor would be where this game would get played. I just can't believe they are talented enough, top to bottom, to keep up.
6. Tennessee - 55% Chance to Win. Defense seems legit, offense, not so much. I like Golden against a young QB.
7. BYU - 85% Chance to Win - Sign me up. I don't see them consistently scoring or stopping us.
8. Bama - 30% Chance to Win - This is the matchup that would scare me the most. If Milroe is dealing, I don't see us having a chance.
9. Ole Miss - 40% Chance to Win - Came into the season with a lot of hype, just destroyed Georgia. I'm not sure we match up well here.
10. Georgia - 35% Chance to Win - I think their DL would give our OL fits all game and we'd struggle to do anything on offense. But I think it may be the same on the other side. Could be a 10-9 type game.
11. Miami - 70% Chance to Win - After skating by, they finally got exposed by a team we handled. I'd take this game without much concern.
12. Boise State - 65% Chance to Win - This could be an interesting matchup. Jeanty is the goods and I'm not sure how ND would do against a team that was committed to ramming it down your throat.
13. SMU - 65% Chance to Win - I don't know much about SMU, admittedly, and I'm not sure it matters. The stage may be too big at this point for SMU but who knows.

There you have it. Yes, I'm bored.

Not bad...but I'd love our chances with one dimensional teams especially those without star power (IU, BYU, P$U to an extent), I would go....

1. Oregon~50% chance to win
2. Ohio St.~45% chance to win
3. Texas~45% chance to win
4. Penn St.~75% chance to win
5. Indiana~85% chance to win
6. Tennessee~60% chance to win
7. BYU~95% chance to win
8. Alabama~45% chance to win
9. Ole Miss~5% chance to win
10. Georgia~40% chance to win
11. Miami~70% chance to win
12. Boise St.~80% chance to win
13. SMU~85% chance to win

Too much fear of the SEC - especially Alabama. Saban isn't there anymore.

Wouldnt matter if Saban was there or not! He saw the writing on the wall and abandoned ship.

 

[Rocketman84]

If anyone thinks Bama, Georgia, or Ole Miss would be favorable matchups for ND, they haven't been paying attention. Sure, ND could matchup with any of them and win the game, but I'd guess Vegas would have ND as the underdog against any of those 3.

BYU, Indiana, Penn St or Miami otoh, we'd be favored and I'd really like those matchups.

'Bama I can see being +2.5 and Georgia +4.5 dogs, but until last week I think we are favorites over Ole Miss, and I think we finish up that way once we win out and they drop another game.

 

[Rocketman84]

This would be a rough route for ND

Exactly what the committee wants

 

[Rockin’Irish]

Not bad...but I'd love our chances with one dimensional teams especially those without star power (IU, BYU, P$U to an extent), I would go....

1. Oregon~50% chance to win
2. Ohio St.~45% chance to win
3. Texas~45% chance to win
4. Penn St.~75% chance to win
5. Indiana~85% chance to win
6. Tennessee~60% chance to win
7. BYU~95% chance to win
8. Alabama~45% chance to win
9. Ole Miss~5% chance to win
10. Georgia~40% chance to win
11. Miami~70% chance to win
12. Boise St.~80% chance to win
13. SMU~85% chance to win

Wouldnt matter if Saban was there or not! He saw the writing on the wall and abandoned ship.

Ole Miss at 5%? I’m thinking that might be a typo…….

 

[Rocketman84]

I agree I've been salivating over the 6 seed all along with hopefully the loser of Ohio St Oregon dropping to 4

Getting #6 with the 6/11 winner vs BYU in the 2nd Rd would be like Xmas!!

 

[Rocketman84]

Ole Miss at 5%? I’m thinking that might be a typo…….

Oh wow....absolutely is a typo 55%

 

[Rocketman84]

Ole Miss at 5%? I’m thinking that might be a typo…….

Just weird...In my post #202 it shows 55% I dont see why 5% shows up there.

 

[MacIrish75]

The Big10 is really going to hurt our chances of moving up much more. Outside of the Indiana-OSU, the top four team have a cake schedule the rest of the year. The two BIG10 teams that don't play for the B1G championship are pretty much locked at the 5&6 seed and the looser of the B1G might get a spot in front of us too.

Purdue has a chance to do the funniest thing ever on Saturday…

 

[arrowryan]

The Big10 is really going to hurt our chances of moving up much more. Outside of the Indiana-OSU, the top four team have a cake schedule the rest of the year. The two BIG10 teams that don't play for the B1G championship are pretty much locked at the 5&6 seed and the looser of the B1G might get a spot in front of us too.

I wouldn’t rule out PSU tripping up on the road at Minnesota

 

[NDFAN2008]

PSU may be the worst team in the playoff picture.

 

[ThePiombino]

PSU may be the worst team in the playoff picture.

I'm not an SEC simp but Georgia being left out while PSU being in AND getting a home game seems...wrong.

 

[IrishLion]

Auto byes really are stupid because not all conferences are created equal. Should be top-4 get bye regardless of conference affiliation.

Would not shock me if this was the plan all along.

The current format was probably a “soft launch” just to get all the conferences in agreement… meanwhile the B1G and SEC were back-channeling, figuring out how to throw their weight around after the first 12-team contract is up.

 

[IrishTusker]

Penn State's best win is a loss. I guess they are getting credit for that. Wins are supposed to matter more than losses.

 

[InKellyWeTrust]

Would not shock me if this was the plan all along.

The current format was probably a “soft launch” just to get all the conferences in agreement… meanwhile the B1G and SEC were back-channeling, figuring out how to throw their weight around after the first 12-team contract is up.

Get rid of conference championships and auto byes. Move playoffs a week earlier.

 

[stpeteirish]

My scenario gives them a second loss

Would not shock me if this was the plan all along.

The current format was probably a “soft launch” just to get all the conferences in agreement… meanwhile the B1G and SEC were back-channeling, figuring out how to throw their weight around after the first 12-team contract is up.

The Big10 is really going to hurt our chances of moving up much more. Outside of the Indiana-OSU, the top four team have a cake schedule the rest of the year. The two BIG10 teams that don't play for the B1G championship are pretty much locked at the 5&6 seed and the looser of the B1G might get a spot in front of us too.

I don’t think IU is locked in at 5 or 6. Buckeyes could pummel them knock their lovely eye test into strength of schedule reality and a 9-11 slot.

 

[stlnd01]

I don’t think IU is locked in at 5 or 6. Buckeyes could pummel them knock their lovely eye test into strength of schedule reality and a 9-11 slot.

Yeah, could see IU dropping below us if they get creamed. But we could easily be looking up at two Big Ten teams whose best accomplishment is losing games to Ohio State that were close-ish but never really in doubt. Silly.

 

[GowerND11]

It would be something for IU to beat OSU though. Giving them 2 conference losses would be some extreme schadenfreude

 

[Fbolt]

Ha-something the Irish couldn't do over the past few years.