They're gonna cover the spread, and the backups are going to play almost the whole second half... they're gonna kill clock and let Phil J run the ball a bunch and throw it a bit on short, high-percentage stuff, keeping it from being a total mauling.
I also think the Louisville kids are going to be fired up to play for a coach that actually cares about them, which will sustain them for their first drive or two. They have an athletic QB that might create some 3rd down magic before Lea adjusts the defense.
ND 42, UofL 21