2017 Week 7 Prediction Poll (USC @ ND)

[gkIrish]

Spread is ND -3.5

Votes are public

 

[IrishLax]

I've got ND coming up short in this game. When USC is on, they're great. Their main issue has been inconsistency.

If we get a down USC, we could blow them out but does anyone think they're going to be "down" in a rivalry game? Look what they did to Stanford earlier this year.

When you look at advanced stats, ND and USC have equivocal production on offense but ND has the more impressive defense by a solid margin. USC's defense checks in at #31... decent, but not great. So if I'm operating under the assumption that ND is going to struggle to stop USC, that means ND would need to have a big day on offense to win... Notre Dame has played two very good defenses so far...

Georgia - #10 - horrible game plan, tried to throw it all over the field, 19 points
MSU - #9 - much better game plan, committed to the run, more effective passing from Wimbush, lit them up for 38 points with conservative play/backups in 4th Q

If we do what we did to MSU I could see ND winning something like 41-34... pound the ball on the ground, make enough plays in the passing game to score about 20 points a half. But I think it's more realistic that we lose something like 27-34. The reason I think we struggle to stop USC is that our defensive scheme puts a lot of burden on the CBs to win their individual matchups and USC is uniquely talented to win more of those matchups than they lose. We saw what that guy Gardener did for freaking Miami of Ohio... it's hard not to see USC WRs doing something similar winning contested balls. Conversely, our WRs are not likely to be able to get separation which means USC can load up against the run without fear.

Besides ND winning with offense, the only way I see them getting the job done would be for the DL to have a huge game and create a lot of negative plays forcing USC to be more one-dimensional.

 

[NDdomer2]

I've got ND coming up short in this game. When USC is on, they're great. Their main issue has been inconsistency.

If we get a down USC, we could blow them out but does anyone think they're going to be "down" in a rivalry game? Look what they did to Stanford earlier this year.

When you look at advanced stats, ND and USC have equivocal production on offense but ND has the more impressive defense by a solid margin. USC's defense checks in at #31... decent, but not great. So if I'm operating under the assumption that ND is going to struggle to stop USC, that means ND would need to have a big day on offense to win... Notre Dame has played two very good defenses so far...

Georgia - #10 - horrible game plan, tried to throw it all over the field, 19 points
MSU - #9 - much better game plan, committed to the run, more effective passing from Wimbush, lit them up for 38 points with conservative play/backups in 4th Q

If we do what we did to MSU I could see ND winning something like 41-34... pound the ball on the ground, make enough plays in the passing game to score about 20 points a half. But I think it's more realistic that we lose something like 27-34. The reason I think we struggle to stop USC is that our defensive scheme puts a lot of burden on the CBs to win their individual matchups and USC is uniquely talented to win more of those matchups than they lose. We saw what that guy Gardener did for freaking Miami of Ohio... it's hard not to see USC WRs doing something similar winning contested balls. Conversely, our WRs are not likely to be able to get separation which means USC can load up against the run without fear.

Besides ND winning with offense, the only way I see them getting the job done would be for the DL to have a huge game and create a lot of negative plays forcing USC to be more one-dimensional.

ND got an early pick six that really changed the game too.

 

[condoms SUCk]

IMO special teams play will be the deciding factor.
Flipping field position will be yuuuge, make SC go 70+ yds consistently.
Execution on both sides of the ball will be vial, not much room for error.

ND-27-USC-21

 

[Ndaccountant]

I've got ND coming up short in this game. When USC is on, they're great. Their main issue has been inconsistency.

If we get a down USC, we could blow them out but does anyone think they're going to be "down" in a rivalry game? Look what they did to Stanford earlier this year.

When you look at advanced stats, ND and USC have equivocal production on offense but ND has the more impressive defense by a solid margin. USC's defense checks in at #31... decent, but not great. So if I'm operating under the assumption that ND is going to struggle to stop USC, that means ND would need to have a big day on offense to win... Notre Dame has played two very good defenses so far...

Georgia - #10 - horrible game plan, tried to throw it all over the field, 19 points
MSU - #9 - much better game plan, committed to the run, more effective passing from Wimbush, lit them up for 38 points with conservative play/backups in 4th Q

If we do what we did to MSU I could see ND winning something like 41-34... pound the ball on the ground, make enough plays in the passing game to score about 20 points a half. But I think it's more realistic that we lose something like 27-34. The reason I think we struggle to stop USC is that our defensive scheme puts a lot of burden on the CBs to win their individual matchups and USC is uniquely talented to win more of those matchups than they lose. We saw what that guy Gardener did for freaking Miami of Ohio... it's hard not to see USC WRs doing something similar winning contested balls. Conversely, our WRs are not likely to be able to get separation which means USC can load up against the run without fear.

Besides ND winning with offense, the only way I see them getting the job done would be for the DL to have a huge game and create a lot of negative plays forcing USC to be more one-dimensional.

One thing to like is that Utah is a really physical team, so it can be tough physically coming back after that game. Add to that a trip across the country and a banged up team, there is some potential weakness there.

That all said, USC thrives on balance, which gives Jones better lanes and WR's more space to play. This, with a secondary for ND that has not seen this type of attack yet. If USC throws less than 55% of their plays, ND is in trouble. I got USC in this one.

 

[IrishLion]

ND 24-21, Yoooooooon wins it at the buzzer.

We run the ball well enough that we shorten the game, keeping Darnold from getting into a Heisman-worthy rhythm.

Elko's defense comes up with a huge play late that forces a sack or turnover based on insane game prep and awareness from the players. The offense kills the clock after entering the redzone, and then Yoon nails the game winner after USC tries to ice him.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

ND will wear them down with the run. They will take the ball out of Darnold's hands, shorten the game by taking time off the clock and take advantage of their best asset, the run game. Adams and Williams will combine for 200+ on the ground and McG and Q will be a big reason why. South Bend will be a happy place Sat night and so will my living room.

 

[Me2SouthBend]

ND 24-21, Yoooooooon wins it at the buzzer.

We run the ball well enough that we shorten the game, keeping Darnold from getting into a Heisman-worthy rhythm.

Elko's defense comes up with a huge play late that forces a sack or turnover based on insane game prep and awareness from the players. The offense kills the clock after entering the redzone, and then Yoon nails the game winner after USC tries to ice him.

Reps young Jedi.

 

[Irish YJ]

If ND can be mildly successful throwing the ball (keeping it away from JJ), and keep Recktor off BW, I think we roll by 10 or more. If we don't contain Burnett, we might get rolled by 10 or more.

I think the week off translates into an improved game plan, and improved BW. Irish win 31-20

 

[notredomer23]

I will be there. When I was in the student section for 4 years as a Holy Cross student, it was one of the winningest periods in ND football (2012-2015). Games I have attended not in that period include:

Air Force 2007
Tulsa 2010
USC 2011
South Florida 2011
Stanford 2016
Navy 2016
UGA 2017
USC 2017

USC this year will be different. ND by 100

 

[RDU Irish]

I think we run it down their throat. Bye week for us and tough come from behind win last week for them = perfect storm for us (for a change). Extra week for the defense gives me confidence in positive results on their front (plus Darnold is susceptible to turning it over).

 

[ndfb3.1]

37-20 ND. I clicked the wrong button if someone can fix it? Thank you!

 

[irishfan]

ND 24-21, Yoooooooon wins it at the buzzer.

We run the ball well enough that we shorten the game, keeping Darnold from getting into a Heisman-worthy rhythm.

Elko's defense comes up with a huge play late that forces a sack or turnover based on insane game prep and awareness from the players. The offense kills the clock after entering the redzone, and then Yoon nails the game winner after USC tries to ice him.

Not to detail thread, but what was the last game we won with a FG as time expired?

I want to say 23-21 win over Purdue in 2000....maybe an OT game that I'm forgetting? We missed as time expired against Pitt in 2004. Can't remember a recent miss off the top of my head either.

Either way, this would be a great week for it.

edit: forgot Washington State OT win in 2003 on a made FG....of course I was there and forgot it.

 

[clashmore_jon]

ND by 24+. We dominate on the ground early and when they stack the box we burn them on high percentage passes to TEs. We get a couple INTs including one for 6 to keep it from ever being close.

They gash us occasionally in the air but we tighten up enough to keep them out of the end zone most of the time. SC is already banged up and when they try to match our physicality, they lose a couple more key guys and are too thin to fill their spots. By the end of the game USC are mentally and physically exhausted and just can't hang in there. Ian Book scrambles for a TD during garbage time.

 

[Ndaccountant]

Not to detail thread, but what was the last game we won with a FG as time expired?

I want to say 23-21 win over Purdue in 2000....maybe an OT game that I'm forgetting? We missed as time expired against Pitt in 2004.

Either way, this would be a great week for it.

Setta versus WSU in 2003 comes to mind, but I am probably missing others.

Edit: Navy later that year.

 

[irishfan]

31-24. Okwara ices it with a strip sack late. Okwara/Hayes rattle Darnold all second half.

 

[irishfan]

Setta versus WSU in 2003 comes to mind, but I am probably missing others.

Just edited with that one...I was in the stadium and still blanked on it somehow!

 

[IrishSteelhead]

2017 Week 7 Prediction Poll (USC @ ND)

I feel a worst case scenario:

41-20 USC. Darnold has a Rose Bowl type outing, BW makes 3-4 big mistakes, they run a punt or KO back along the way, and they cruise.

 

[Irish YJ]

31-24. Okwara ices it with a strip sack late. Okwara/Hayes rattle Darnold all second half.

Me thinks Tillery will have a good game.

 

[IrishLax]

I will be there. When I was in the student section for 4 years as a Holy Cross student, it was one of the winningest periods in ND football (2012-2015). Games I have attended not in that period include:

Air Force 2007
Tulsa 2010
USC 2011
South Florida 2011
Stanford 2016
Navy 2016
UGA 2017
USC 2017

USC this year will be different. ND by 100

Dude... wtf... please give away your tickets. That's a laundry list of ND's most inexplicable and horrible losses of the last decade.

 

[Irish#1]

If ND can be mildly successful throwing the ball (keeping it away from JJ), and keep Recktor off BW, I think we roll by 10 or more. If we don't contain Burnett, we might get rolled by 10 or more.

I think the week off translates into an improved game plan, and improved BW. Irish win 31-20

I think we learned our lesson with UGA. We'll protect accordingly. I like that Elko has two weeks to prepare. Team will be ready to wash away the embarrassment of last year and let the CF world know the Irish are legit.

 

[notredomer23]

Dude... wtf... please give away your tickets. That's a laundry list of ND's most inexplicable and horrible losses of the last decade.

I should clarify I don't have tickets yet, so if the board wants to start a gofundme to keep me away from going into the stadium, I will happily oblige grin:

 

[DONTH8]

I should clarify I don't have tickets yet, so if the board wants to start a gofundme to keep me away from going into the stadium, I will happily oblige grin:

You're worse then some of the recruits when it comes to asking for money. Holding us hostage? What kind of fan are you??

I expect a close game. Rivalry games almost always are. I expect a 31-24 type of game. A lot will depend on the play calling that we make on offense, and the adjustments that we make on defense. (I know, call me John Madden pointing out the obvious.) But if we call plays like we did against Georgia, slow developing runs, poor passes, we'll be in for a close game. USC doesn't have a great defense like Georgia, but because the emotions will be high, I think they play better than usual.

Offensively, they will pass a lot. Elko puts a lot on the DB's and S's plates, so hopefully the coaches gave them extra attention over the ye, perhaps even added a few more wrinkles to the defense to keep USC honest. Darnold said that they have been too predictable offensively, I hope that's true and Elko has figured out the patterns. But with all that said, we need to be ready for anything. I think we will be able to hold off the run well enough without putting 8 in the box. So hopefully the DBs can ball out.

I'm excited for this game. Havent been this antzy for a game since Michigan in 2014. (I just really didn't want to lose the last match-up with them. I hate them more than any team in college football.) Can't wait for the game.

 

[greyhammer90]

gk with the ND wins pick:

 

[loomis41973]

Darnold further exposes a weak ND secondary.

SCum rolls. Hope i'm wrong.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think we learned our lesson with UGA. We'll protect accordingly. I like that Elko has two weeks to prepare. Team will be ready to wash away the embarrassment of last year and let the CF world know the Irish are legit.

I hope you are right. Rector and Jack Jones both have the ability to turn a game.

I do hope the bye week is a benefit to the game plan. I just hope I don't see 100 F'ing screens. Would love to see some crossing or middle mid yardage TE shots, and some deep shots (where ever Jack Jones is not) that keep the running lanes open.

 

[IrishinTN]

I think the defense can get pressure on Darnold and the game will be a last possession game that ND wins for a change, late score giving them 28-24 victory.

 

[irishfan]

Me thinks Tillery will have a good game.

I think the DL takes over as the game goes on and we completely shut them down in the 4th.

 

[Irish YJ]

I think the DL takes over as the game goes on and we completely shut them down in the 4th.

I would love to see that. I'm still to snake bit from years past to think that way though.

 

[Luckylucci]

ND got an early pick six that really changed the game too.

That was game planned for all week. That was much less a fluke, than something planned by Elko. Love explained post game he had them drilling it all week in anticipation of those routes/throws. Love just executed the plan. When taking this into consideration, it's something that you'd expect more of, not just a one off.

Similarly, with two weeks to prepare, I do think Elko will be able to provide a solid game plan around containing USC's offense.