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  • Originally posted by NDPhilly View Post
    OSU may have put up a lot of "style points" over the last month against mediocre teams but realistically who is their best win? A floundering PSU team at home?
    they’ll theoretically have Michigan, Michigan st and say Wisconsin by seasons end. They won’t be in when the rankings come out but pretty clear path to move up, which the committee knows

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    • Originally posted by Dale View Post

      they’ll theoretically have Michigan, Michigan st and say Wisconsin by seasons end. They won’t be in when the rankings come out but pretty clear path to move up, which the committee knows
      Are we confident they’ll win all three? I am not

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      • Latest Bowl Projections based on this past weekend's games:

        CBS Sportsline - Fiesta / KY VS ND
        College Football News - Peach / MeeChicken VS ND
        247 Sports - Peach / WF VS ND
        Athlon - Fiesta / OK ST vs ND

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        • No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

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          • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post
            No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.

            I think because of each of the opponents listed - it will probably be totally someone else. KY is the only team with the schedule like ND to win out. OK ST has OK, and WF still has UNC and Clemson.... I find it hard that they beat both; could be wrong but UNC is bitter right now and the game is this weekend.

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            • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post
              No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.
              And... Michigan is going to lose again... O$U curse will get'm

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              • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post
                No to Michigan, but yes to the other 3. I'd love to see a matchup vs Wake.
                Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.

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                • I am continually shocked that Irish fans would give the time of day to Michigan. Michigan's D is good, and without Hamilton the secondary is very vulnerable. I don't really like the matchup and I was against the series being renewed. 2014 was the perfect send off, you could not top that and it should never have been attempted.

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                  • Originally posted by ab2cmiller View Post

                    Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.

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                    • You know, I can't understand some people's thinking on this site at times (still love y'all). But absolutely none of us are as dumb as the people on r/CFB I saw claiming that there's a chance that both Michigan State and Michigan can make the playoffs this year.

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                      • Originally posted by Dizzyphil View Post


                        I think because of each of the opponents listed - it will probably be totally someone else. KY is the only team with the schedule like ND to win out. OK ST has OK, and WF still has UNC and Clemson.... I find it hard that they beat both; could be wrong but UNC is bitter right now and the game is this weekend.
                        I believe Wakes game against UNC this year is considered NON CONFERENCE in an effort to schedule each other more. So Wake could lose that game and still be the ACC Champ/ representative in Fiesta
                        Prehistoric

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                        • ESPN's playoff predictor has ND with a 17% chance to make the playoffs right now, 7th highest of any team.

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                          • Originally posted by NDPhilly View Post
                            ESPN's playoff predictor has ND with a 17% chance to make the playoffs right now, 7th highest of any team.
                            538 has us with a 34% chance assuming we win out. If Cincinnati loses a game that number skyrockets to 57%.

                            And much to the dismay of the pusses on here ESPN has our odds at 47% if we win out. No other results factored in.
                            Last edited by GATTACA!; 11-01-2021, 12:15 PM.

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                            • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post
                              You know, I can't understand some people's thinking on this site at times (still love y'all). But absolutely none of us are as dumb as the people on r/CFB I saw claiming that there's a chance that both Michigan State and Michigan can make the playoffs this year.
                              Unlikely, yes. Not completely inconceivabe, though. MSU runs table and win the BIG. Michgian finishes with one loss, beating OSU and PSU along the way PLUS some combination of bama losing a second game, Oregon losing a second game, Wake losing, BIG 12 canibilizing each other and Cincy losing would probably put both teams into the playoff.

                              I think there's a good chance chaos ensues and it opens the door for them both to get in but here's where I agree with you - it's dumb to think Michigan will beat OSU, much less both Michigan and sparty will beat them.

                              For the same reasons, I think ND has a shot, and it'll probably happen to torture us. We could get a layup in the Fiesta bowl. Instead, we'll back door our way into playing Georgia. JT Daniels will be be rested and fresh off of throwing 300 plus and 4 TDs against bama. Their D will be foaming at the mouth with four weeks to prepare. ESPN will run story after story about Kirby Smart being a galaxy brain game planner after they beat ND but before they lose in the title game.

                              That's how it's going down. Book it.
                              Last edited by Wild Bill ; 11-01-2021, 12:21 PM.

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                              • Originally posted by Wild Bill View Post

                                For the same reasons, I think ND has a shot, and it'll probably happen to torture us. We could get a layup in the Fiesta bowl. Instead, we'll back door our way into playing Georgia. JT Daniels will be be rested and fresh off of throwing 300 plus and 4 TDs against bama. Their D will be foaming at the mouth with four weeks to prepare. ESPN will run story after story about Kirby Smart being a galaxy brain game planner after they beat ND but before they lose in the title game.

                                That's how it's going down. Book it.
                                This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

                                There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.

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                                • Two SEC plus B1G plus ??? - that last question mark is Cinci if they don't screw up with ND in position to sneak in if we win out and they stumble. Coming off of four straight 200+ yard rushing games will lend to the "ND didn't have their OL figured out but now they do" narrative that ignores the poo-poo defenses we face the next four games. I don't ever want to say I don't want to be in the playoffs b/c you have to be in it to win it - however, ooooff.

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                                  • Originally posted by ab2cmiller View Post

                                    Curious why no to Michigan. To me, the only reason to not want that matchup would be you don't think we can beat them. A win against Michigan would do a lot more on the PR scale with recruits than a win against Wake Forest.
                                    Bc Harbaugh is mentally ill and he'd try running the against the '85 Bears, but ND tackles more like an 85 year old woman than it does the '85 Bears so they'd probably run for 300.

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                                    • Originally posted by tussin View Post

                                      This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

                                      There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.
                                      I agree this is the weakest frontrunner I can remember but they are still very good and would be a matchup nightmare for ND.

                                      I think the program is far better off playing in a very winnable fiesta bowl than they are getting a shot at Georgia, and if they can somehow pull that off, playing against atteam like OSU who can hang 40 on a defense when they're having an off night.

                                      Get a big bowl win, lock up an elite recruiting class and ride the wave into 2022.

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                                      • Originally posted by tussin View Post

                                        This is probably Kelly's 5th or 6th best team at ND, but it has a higher chance of actually winning in the CFP than any of the previous ones.

                                        There is no 2018 Clemson or 2020 Bama in the sport this year. Georgia is great, but any team who potentially has Stetson Bennet as their QB1 is an undeniably weak frontrunner. I would love to sneak in to the playoff at #4 and get a shot at UGA. I don't think ND would necessarily win that game, but this team has a better shot in that situation than last year's did again Bama.
                                        If we had last years OL I would agree. Georgia would devour Coan/Buchner. There’s no amount of quick you can get the ball out to compensate for how bad that matchup would be

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                                        • I would just like a major bowl win one time. Haven't won a Fiesta/Cotton/Orange bowl since what, 93?
                                          Formerly known as Kellyisit

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                                          • I'd like Orange Bowl or Peach Bowl and against Texas A&M or Oklahoma. Something warm.
                                            Running the damn ball since 2017.

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                                            • Originally posted by drayer54 View Post
                                              I'd like Orange Bowl or Peach Bowl and against Texas A&M or Oklahoma. Something warm.
                                              You think the Aggies are gonna win out? They've already got 2 losses lol.

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                                              • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post

                                                You think the Aggies are gonna win out? They've already got 2 losses lol.
                                                Well, I don't really want 2 loss Bama, even though they are beatable this year. I do think the Aggies will win it and be in a big game. I think OSU beats OU late and makes OU there too. I'm almost confident enough to book a flight to Atlanta for the Peach Bowl.
                                                Running the damn ball since 2017.

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                                                • Originally posted by drayer54 View Post
                                                  I'd like Orange Bowl or Peach Bowl and against Texas A&M or Oklahoma. Something warm.
                                                  Orange bowl is a playoff game, I think. Fiesta and Peach is what we have on the menu.

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                                                  • This team as it is right now can go 11-1. Can they win a playoff game, let alone two? There would need to be a hell of a lot of improvement in the next month for me to believe that. I just don't see it.

                                                    As it stands today, I'll take 11-1 with a winnable bowl game. I think if they make the playoff they will be embarrassed again on the national stage. I don't know if that is what the program needs from an optics standpoint.

                                                    Financially, I'm sure the Playoff would be lovely for the university, but I don't see a dime of that money and neither do any of you.
                                                    It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

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                                                    • No one cares about NY6 bowls anymore. You guys really think a Peach bowl win over Wake is going to sway a 17 year old?

                                                      Give me a playoff loss. At least we can point to it showing that "we're right on the doorstep and it's kids like you that we need to put us over the top".

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                                                      • Ideally the stars align if we make the CFP and we move up to 3 for a rematch with Cincinnati or we play someone other than Georgia in the semi-finals.

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                                                        • Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post
                                                          No one cares about NY6 bowls anymore. You guys really think a Peach bowl win over Wake is going to sway a 17 year old?

                                                          Give me a playoff loss. At least we can point to it showing that "we're right on the doorstep and it's kids like you that we need to put us over the top".
                                                          Idk about the recruiting angle I missed where anyone implied it would matter recruiting wise. But the off-season conversation sure had a lot of Cincinnati (Peach Bowl, close L to UGA), OU (Cotton Bowl W), Georgia (Peach Bowl W), Iowa St (Fiesta W), Texas A&M (Orange W), North Carolina (Orange close L to A&M). I’d say people definitely care because most of the talk if you flip on ESPN or a podcast from February - August centered around momentum built from those games. It certainly can’t hurt.

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                                                          • Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post
                                                            No one cares about NY6 bowls anymore. You guys really think a Peach bowl win over Wake is going to sway a 17 year old?

                                                            Give me a playoff loss. At least we can point to it showing that "we're right on the doorstep and it's kids like you that we need to put us over the top".
                                                            Agree with this sentiment. Oklahoma, for instance, has continually made the Playoff and continually lost convincingly. The perception of their program, however, has been elevated because of that Playoff presence (they are almost universally considered a current top 5 program). If you swapped their 4 Playoff appearances for 4 NY6 bowl wins, I really don't think the college football landscape would be holding them in as high of esteem as it does right now. Sadly, these non-CFB NY6 bowl games don't matter as much as they once did - an unfortunate casualty of the CFP.

                                                            I tend to find the "ND hasn't won a NY6 bowl game since..." to be a fairly lazy take that ignores what matters most in modern college football. At this point, it is a bit of a cherry-picked stat used to understate ND's recent accomplishments. Do I find it annoying when SEC/Big Ten/etc. fans leverage it to dismiss our program? Of course, and it would be great to win NY6 bowl game just to eliminate the stat. But I will take the CFP every time. It's the quickest accelerant to elevating the program.

                                                            Also, one more point on that NY6 bowl stat we always hear: honestly I think many of those people who cite it now will simply move the goal posts and change the line to "ND has only won 1 major bowl game since..."

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                                                            • Teams that don’t care about NY6 tend to be those that A) have playoff wins or B) can’t make a NY6. We aren’t A and are better than B, I’d enjoy the win very much so.

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                                                              • https://www.espn.com/espn/feature/st...yoff-predictor

                                                                ESPN playoff predictor gives ND a 47% chance to make the playoff if we win out for what it's worth.

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                                                                • Originally posted by Dale View Post
                                                                  Teams that don’t care about NY6 tend to be those that A) have playoff wins or B) can’t make a NY6. We aren’t A and are better than B, I’d enjoy the win very much so.
                                                                  If we win a NY6 bowl I'll be happy. I will be ecstatic if we make the CFP for a 2nd straight year, and the 3rd time in 4 years.

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                                                                  • Fans can say and think whatever they want, but if I’m a player, I am striving for the playoffs. I hope that is what they are working towards as a long term goal, because ambition is important for growth. Short term: beat Navy.

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                                                                    • not sure what this means?
                                                                      "From Chaos comes Clarity"

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                                                                      • Our current strength of schedule is pretty good because most teams have their schedules back loaded.

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                                                                        • Originally posted by ab2cmiller View Post
                                                                          Our current strength of schedule is pretty good because most teams have their schedules back loaded.
                                                                          How do we have a SoS of 9 with only 1 quality win then?
                                                                          "From Chaos comes Clarity"

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                                                                          • Originally posted by Cackalacky2.0 View Post


                                                                            not sure what this means?
                                                                            The problem is ND has a good SOS solely because of Cincinatti and they lost that game and there aren’t any more opportunities for a signature win.
                                                                            Formerly known as Kellyisit

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                                                                            • Originally posted by KellyIsIt View Post

                                                                              The problem is ND has a good SOS solely because of Cincinnatti and they lost that game and there aren’t any more opportunities for a signature win.
                                                                              If Wisconsin wins out, which is a good possibility, they will finish 9-3 and win the B1G West. The only team we blew out should give us a quality win.

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                                                                              • Originally posted by Cackalacky2.0 View Post

                                                                                How do we have a SoS of 9 with only 1 quality win then?
                                                                                Because everyone in P5 conferences schedule absolute crap for their non conference schedule

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                                                                                • Originally posted by KellyIsIt View Post

                                                                                  The problem is ND has a good SOS solely because of Cincinatti and they lost that game and there aren’t any more opportunities for a signature win.
                                                                                  That doesn't really make sense because Michigan and MSU played each other and look at their SoS. Same for OSU and Oregon.

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                                                                                  • Everyone on this board is going to be banging the table for an 11-1 ND a month from now.

                                                                                    Unfortunately, a conference championship would have been a big help this year for us to solidify our resume.

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                                                                                    • Originally posted by NDPhilly View Post
                                                                                      Everyone on this board is going to be banging the table for an 11-1 ND a month from now.

                                                                                      Unfortunately, a conference championship would have been a big help this year for us to solidify our resume.
                                                                                      Yup, an 11-1 ND that beats some crappy ACC team in the conference championship would've been a virtual lock.

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                                                                                      • Heard Irish Illustrated talk about it briefly, but I think they missed a talking point while discussing ND leap frogging Cincy (if Cincy has a loss). They seemed to think it wouldn't happen. But what if Wisconsin wins out, ND wins out, and Cincy loses? I know "quality of loss" isn't a deciding factor and "head to head" is one as it pertains to the criteria, however, this seems to only be true on paper, as the committee has notoriously over the years used the eye ball test and quality of loss to rearrange teams. Precedent being ND's "best loss" against Clemson in 2015 kept them in the conversation versus any "best win" they had. In this example, ND and Cincy have quality wins (Wiscy and ND respectively) and Cincy holds the head to head, but ND's loss is clearly "better" than a Cincy loss to anyone left on their schedule. Is it enough for the committee to rearrange ND and Cincy? ND's loss to a good Cincy team earlier in the year versus a late loss by Cincy to SMU seems like it at least opens the door for conversation. ND's offense is trending up (defense down w/o KH), but if these two teams played again, would we expect the same result? I don't think so, and I think that's what may help push ND ahead of Cincy if the above scenario plays out.

                                                                                        It's too early for all this speculation. A lot has to happen for ND to get in. I don't see how they do. But I do think they can hang around in the conversation (which is great PR) and I think they can creep up into the top 8 or even 6 as an 11-1 team if the right teams ahead of them lose.

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                                                                                        • Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post
                                                                                          No one cares about NY6 bowls anymore. You guys really think a Peach bowl win over Wake is going to sway a 17 year old?

                                                                                          Give me a playoff loss. At least we can point to it showing that "we're right on the doorstep and it's kids like you that we need to put us over the top".
                                                                                          This. Kelly can tell a 5 star recruit "You can go to a football factory and wait in line behind a bunch of other 5 stars. Or you can come to ND, be a rock star out of the gate, and be that missing piece that gets us to glory."

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                                                                                          • Eh. This should've been their pitch going back to 2012 NCG loss....be the missing piece.

                                                                                            Is a blowout loss in the CFP better than a NY6 win? Because that's the potential. A #4 ND team isn't running w/ a #1 UGA team like they did the last couple of times they played them. Can ND be matched against a decent SEC team in a NY6 game, win, and carry some respect and momentum into next year? I'd be totally in favor of that scenario.

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                                                                                            • I get both sides of the playoff vs. not argument. If I were on the team, I would of course want the playoffs. I would think I could play with anybody.

                                                                                              But as a fan I can hedge my bets. It's not soft to want a winnable game. It's not ballsy to want the team to be overmatched in a playoff game. This isn't our challenge to face. We are spectators. We have our own real challenges in our lives that we can and do face with balls and grit.

                                                                                              To me this just comes down to what is more fun as a fan. I would have a lot of fun watching ND win a NY6 Bowl, for basically the first time in my life that I can remember.

                                                                                              I would have considerably less fun watching ND get blown out in a playoff/championship game for like the 5th time in 10 years.

                                                                                              Lastly - I don't think any of this matters for recruiting. I don't think losing in the playoff vs. winning a major bowl moves the needle either way. Winning a championship might matter but no one believes that is happening.

                                                                                              Formerly known as Kellyisit

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                                                                                              • Originally posted by Dale View Post



                                                                                                That’s from 10/26. Saying they live off turnovers is thinking of yesterday only
                                                                                                Hey, don’t let the facts get in the way of a good story!

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                                                                                                • Originally posted by Wild Bill View Post

                                                                                                  I agree this is the weakest frontrunner I can remember but they are still very good and would be a matchup nightmare for ND.

                                                                                                  I think the program is far better off playing in a very winnable fiesta bowl than they are getting a shot at Georgia, and if they can somehow pull that off, playing against atteam like OSU who can hang 40 on a defense when they're having an off night.

                                                                                                  Get a big bowl win, lock up an elite recruiting class and ride the wave into 2022.
                                                                                                  If I somehow knew for a fact we would wet the bed in the CFP and beat whoever in a NY6 then I agree. Since we don’t know that and I want to think we are working towards peaking as a team then I will stick with go big or go home and no guys no glory. I’m sure Kelly and the team would agree.

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                                                                                                  • Btw Purdue beats MSU this weekend moving us up to #7 and WA beats the Ducks moving us to #6. That is getting awful close! It’s all falling in place guys. Who knows, maybe OSU wets the bed and OK is next. We could wind up #3 soon and get our rematch with Cincy who we will whip this time and set up The good guy vs the cheaters. GA has choked in many a big game in the big stage so I would say we would have a chance. D would need to ball out and TB would need to have evolved even more.

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                                                                                                    • Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                                                                      If I somehow knew for a fact we would wet the bed in the CFP and beat whoever in a NY6 then I agree. Since we don’t know that and I want to think we are working towards peaking as a team then I will stick with go big or go home and no guys no glory. I’m sure Kelly and the team would agree.
                                                                                                      Sure they should strive for that, but that isn't the question. The question really is, make the CFP and get trounced, or win an NY6 bowl game? I'm taking the win. And it isn't just about recruiting, it's about the national storyline that has followed Notre Dame since winning the Cotton Bowl in 1994; 28 seasons ago! It's the fact that other blue bloods (and other close to that tier) have gotten Memphis, Western Michigan, Connecticut, Virginia, Northern Illinois, UCF (yeah they won and went undefeated), Utah, Hawaii, etc. in big bowl games, while ND get's matched up with OSU when it should have been Iowa.

                                                                                                      It's about changing the public perception about Notre Dame football, which will result in a change in perception by recruits. Maybe not the recruits within that cycle, but the 13-16 year olds watching and not having to hear for 5 days how Notre Dame is overrated and doesn't deserve these games.

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