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  • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
    I don't think Bama would be in unless it's a ~34-31 all timer. You don't have two losses and you're last impression is one of those and make the playoffs IMO.

    You gotta remember, Bama with 2 losses is #4. They're going to just rematch them right away? No way.
    I think the committee has some leeway to seed the four teams to avoid such an immediate or awkward rematch. Even if they felt Bama was #4, they could seed us at #3 to avoid the immediate rematch. At least that's my understanding.
    Winners see success and want to climb up to its level. Losers see success and want to drag it down to their own.

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    • Originally posted by Bishop2b5 View Post

      I think the committee has some leeway to seed the four teams to avoid such an immediate or awkward rematch. Even if they felt Bama was #4, they could seed us at #3 to avoid the immediate rematch. At least that's my understanding.
      But how would you justify that at #3 when half the committee likely doesn't think they should be in at all?

      Only 2 loss team, coming off of a loss, and they not only get in but jump Cinci/ND/Ok State who either didn't play or just won - and all having 1 fewer losses?

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      • I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?

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        • Originally posted by phork View Post
          My gut is that Georgia wins, and fairly easy. If its a close Alabama win then expect them both in.

          If Alabama Wins:

          1. OSU
          2. Alabama
          3. Georgia
          4. Cincy/ND

          If Alabama loses:

          1. Georgia
          2. OSU
          3./4. Cincy/ND

          Cincy could very well fall victim to the "on paper" or "better team now" arguement.

          Handle our business with Stanford (Remember they KO'd Oregon) with style points, 49-0 sounds about right.
          A one loss Big 12 champ probably jumps us. We need the winner of Bedlham to lose in the championship game. Still a lot of help needed for the Irish to get in.
          Love Thee Notre Dame!

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          • Does Oklahoma get in if they win out?

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            • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
              I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?
              No.
              It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

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              • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post

                But how would you justify that at #3 when half the committee likely doesn't think they should be in at all?

                Only 2 loss team, coming off of a loss, and they not only get in but jump Cinci/ND/Ok State who either didn't play or just won - and all having 1 fewer losses?
                Not trying to justify anything. Just noting that IF that was to happen, I believe the committee has the power to seed teams to avoid such an immediate rematch.
                Winners see success and want to climb up to its level. Losers see success and want to drag it down to their own.

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                • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
                  I haven't seen Auburn play but I see they're unranked and nose diving. But it is the Iron Bowl. Does anyone have any hope Auburn can put it together at home?
                  Slim to none…….Auburn lost their starting QB a week ago and they just lost to South Carolina. It would take a monumental upset at this point to knock off the Tide.

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                  • If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

                    I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.

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                    • I’m sorry but Bama (if they lose)just isn’t getting in over multiple one loss teams, particularly ones that won their CCG. It just isn’t happening. ESPN talking heads trying to will it into existence won’t help. If you remember in this year’s first rankings show they all stated that ND had no chance to get in…..Well, look at their position now (obviously a Cincy loss and/or Wiscy BT title would help greatly)… Anyway, Bama already gets waaaaaay more benefit from being Bama. Their resume isn’t that great, particularly when the teams they beat keep losing (even with SEC favoritism in committee rankings). I think Bama is a great program and deserves to get some extra rope, but this team does not deserve, nor will they be the first 2 loss team in get in the playoffs. They need even more chaos than ND/Ok/Ok St. If I’m a Bama-homer, I would be making the same argument and would convince myself that they will get in just like Bishop. ND needs to worry more about Ok St/Ok winning out and getting edged out than a 2 loss Bama with a so-so resume.

                      I think the push to include Bama with 2 losses will be just like the silly Michigan argument over ND in 2018 or TAMU last year……. It isn’t happening and part of the reason (assuming an ND win over Stanford) is ND’s brand. Let’s face it, this is a for-profit operation and if the argument makes any sense, the committee will include an arguably deserving ND. They need eyeballs and ND brings plenty. Cincy winning out isn’t ideal, but their win over ND might make it impossible to keep them out. They would prefer the brand names get in every year. Bama, UGA, Ok, ND, OSU, Michigan (yuck) and would welcome USC/Texas/etc if they ever get their programs going again.

                      Not trying to be disrespectful to anybody. I appreciate Bishop’s fandom and almost always agree with his opinions. If Bama got in without 1) winning their conference 2) winning their last game or even looking great in the game just prior to their loss 3)no real great win over a highly ranked top 5ish team 4) with 2 losses , it would cause such an outcry/uproar that there would be a lot of pressure to modify the system (think about the pressure that led to the BCS and then the playoff after that). I say all of this assuming UGA wins, OSU or Michigan (yuck) wins the BT, and some combo of Cincy winning out/Ok or Ok St winning out and of course ND beating Stanford. IF chaos ensues, Bama would be at the top of the stack of 2 loss teams

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                      • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
                        If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

                        I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.
                        Agreed. I don't know if OK State or Oklahoma make it into the playoff, but I know they would definitely jump us.

                        Things I believe in order of confidence.

                        Oklahoma/Oklahoma St will jump us if either wins out.

                        pOSU's throttling of MSU will mean they likely jump Bama this week. If not this week, then certainly the next week if they beat Michigan. If Bama drops to 3, they are far far less likely to stay in the top 4 with a loss to Georgia. This is especially true given the concern of avoiding a rematch with Georgia. Only option would be to keep them at #3 which isn't going to happen.

                        We aren't jumping Cincy without them losing a game. We have had zero quality opponents the second half of the year. I guess the best would've been UNC who sits at 6-5. Yes we stomped on GT. We may stomp on Stanford. Yes our defense has looked very impressive the last 3 weeks. If Cincy wins out, including a quality win against a decent Houston team in the conference championship, it will be enough to hold us off.

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                        • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
                          If OK State or Oklahoma win out, I cannot see an argument for ND. I think it'll be unanimous they're in over us.

                          I almost want Oklahoma State to win this weekend because I don't like Oklahoma/Baylor in a rematch. Those always go to the previous loser when they're evenly matched.
                          And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...

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                          • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post

                            And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...
                            If OK defeats OK St, don't they play each other again for the championship? That would be OK beating OK St and then hopeful they turn around and have OK St defeat OK in the championship game.

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                            • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post

                              And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...
                              We need OKSt and OU to get another loss. If OU wins and drops a 2nd L on OSU, it doesn't matter what Baylor does as OSU beat Baylor and OSU would play OU in the championshop and hopefully deliever a second L to OU. If OU loses and Baylor wins then it would be OSU and Baylor. With Baylor hopefully beating OSU in round 2.

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                              • Got it - makes sense. Go OU!

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                                • Not sure if media is to be relied upon, but most outlets don't seem too confident in us making it in.

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                                  • Originally posted by phork View Post

                                    We need OKSt and OU to get another loss. If OU wins and drops a 2nd L on OSU, it doesn't matter what Baylor does as OSU beat Baylor and OSU would play OU in the championshop and hopefully deliever a second L to OU. If OU loses and Baylor wins then it would be OSU and Baylor. With Baylor hopefully beating OSU in round 2.
                                    Key metrics before last Saturday's games:
                                    Sooners ranked #13 at 9-1 - SOS: 109, QW: 2, T25W: 0, GC: 15.5

                                    Okie State ranked #9 at 9-1 - SOS: 43, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 15.8

                                    ND ranked #8 at 9-1 SOS: 38, QW: 3, T25W: 1, GC: 13.8

                                    Sooners SOS will be better if they can win out but it'll probably be far lower than ND's with a very similar game control.

                                    Okie State is the biggest threat to jump ND, IMO. If they can win out, they'll probalby have better numbers in every category above.

                                    The best scenario would be both OK teams losing but I'm not sure we need the Sooners to lose.

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                                    • Can we all admit the benefit of not having a conference championship game is pretty wild?

                                      I do think ND should join a conference, but it's an insane benefit currently. The ACC opponents BYE weeks along with the future talk about requiring ND to play during the CFB playoff BYE week, even if they're #1, is insane. I also think it'd be fun to be in these conference title games, but that's just me. Also bored with always playing Stanford/USC/Navy. Rotate the Cali teams and consider dropping Navy or playing them every other as well.

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                                      • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post
                                        Can we all admit the benefit of not having a conference championship game is pretty wild?

                                        I do think ND should join a conference, but it's an insane benefit currently. The ACC opponents BYE weeks along with the future talk about requiring ND to play during the CFB playoff BYE week, even if they're #1, is insane. I also think it'd be fun to be in these conference title games, but that's just me. Also bored with always playing Stanford/USC/Navy. Rotate the Cali teams and consider dropping Navy or playing them every other as well.
                                        It’s a benefit with the exception of our ability to pass Cincy. If we had a conference championship game we might have a legitimate chance to pass them.

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                                        • Originally posted by EvilleIrish View Post
                                          Not sure if media is to be relied upon, but most outlets don't seem too confident in us making it in.
                                          Stewart Mandel seems to think even a 2 loss Alabama is ahead of ND. I don't think that's going to prove correct.

                                          OTOH, I'm pretty confident ND will be passed by a 1 loss Big 12 champion and will stay behind any and all 1 loss SEC teams.

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                                          • So UGA has to beat Bama by two scores or more I think. Whoever wins Bedlam then needs to lose the Conference Championship Game.

                                            Dream scenario for me is Michigan beats Ohio State somehow then loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Hilarity and chaos then ensue.
                                            It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

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                                            • If Alabama loses to Georgia, regardless of score, and assuming that the CFP gang is going to move OSU ahead of Alabama they have no reasonable basis to keep Alabama in the top4 when its all said and done. You have an undefeated team, and by the looks of it Cincy will run the table and plenty of 1 loss candidates.

                                              And if they expand the playoff, which by all accounts it looks like its happening, ND won't need to join a conference. But I say just do a 16 team. Bye weeks for teams 1 to 4 are bullcrap. Do 8 or 16.

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                                              • Originally posted by Rogue219 View Post
                                                So UGA has to beat Bama by two scores or more I think. Whoever wins Bedlam then needs to lose the Conference Championship Game.

                                                Dream scenario for me is Michigan beats Ohio State somehow then loses to Wisconsin in the Big Ten Championship. Hilarity and chaos then ensue.
                                                Bama, Cincy, Michigan and OSU all have their fate in their own hands, IMO. Win out and they are in. Mich/OSU are mutually exclusive but UGA/Bama are not, IMO. UGA probably in with a loss to Bama but not vice versa. Cincy's second toughest game of the year is their CCG vs Houston - I had hoped SMU would give Cincy a run for their money but they got shellacked. I have less confidence in Houston giving them fits after seeing SMU emasculated.

                                                Really appreciate Oregon removing themselves from the discussion. We just need two more to follow suit and we are solid. I don't buy the Big 12 sneaking in - that conference is trash even if they manage to produce a one loss champ. Committee wants ND - I expect some mental gymnastics to validate it if necessary. Fully expect Cinci to be the sacrificial lamb if they need one.

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                                                • Stop listening to Espn! Bama WILL NOT get in (barring chaos) with a second loss. It isn’t happening.

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                                                    • I weirdly think 1 loss OK State would jump us but 1 loss Oklahoma would not. 1 loss Oklahoma's best win would be over the same team twice. 1 loss Oklahoma State's best wins would be Oklahoma and Baylor twice. The committee hates this Oklahoma team and they haven't made that a secret.

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                                                      • Dakich finally with a reasonable take.

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                                                        • Originally posted by Dizzyphil View Post
                                                          Well, that settles it...if DD says their is a path, then it must not be true. Off the the Beef O'Brady bowl it is....

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                                                          • Originally posted by notredomer23 View Post
                                                            I weirdly think 1 loss OK State would jump us but 1 loss Oklahoma would not. 1 loss Oklahoma's best win would be over the same team twice. 1 loss Oklahoma State's best wins would be Oklahoma and Baylor twice. The committee hates this Oklahoma team and they haven't made that a secret.
                                                            I still think one loss OU would jump us; Oklahoma St is no slouch and if you beat them twice, that's saying a lot. That's a better win than anything we have on our resume.

                                                            I see some scenarios where we get in, but I don't think a one loss Bama and One loss Big12 Champ is one of them. Our second best win is Purdue....
                                                            My two favorite football teams: Notre Dame, and whoever's playing Michigan.

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                                                            • Originally posted by Some Irish Bloke View Post

                                                              I still think one loss OU would jump us; Oklahoma St is no slouch and if you beat them twice, that's saying a lot. That's a better win than anything we have on our resume.

                                                              I see some scenarios where we get in, but I don't think a one loss Bama and One loss Big12 Champ is one of them. Our second best win is Purdue....
                                                              hoping that baylor will beat the winner of this weeks OU-OSU matchup in the big12 championship game.

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                                                              • Originally posted by IRISHMAN View Post

                                                                hoping that baylor will beat the winner of this weeks OU-OSU matchup in the big12 championship game.
                                                                Baylor won't play winner if winner is Oklahoma. Big 12 Championship would be a rematch between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.

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                                                                • Originally posted by ab2cmiller View Post

                                                                  Baylor won't play winner if winner is Oklahoma. Big 12 Championship would be a rematch between Oklahoma and Oklahoma St.
                                                                  Which is the best case scenario

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                                                                  • Originally posted by Cackalacky2.0 View Post


                                                                    Triumvirate of Evil
                                                                    This is some a serious embarrassing Schitt. What a joker. Does he know how stupid he looks not to mention he looks old and his acting is awful! Lou Holtz would be so much better.

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                                                                    • Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                                      This is some a serious embarrassing Schitt. What a joker. Does he know how stupid he looks not to mention he looks old and his acting is awful! Lou Holtz would be so much better.
                                                                      You're right, Lou would probably make a better duck.

                                                                      I'm not going to lie though, in the latest commercial when Deion comes into Saban's office with the band...and then stands next to him and asks "Coach to coach, how can I get one of those jackets," and Saban does that little grin and looks at the camera?....drives me crazy. So corny, just...no.

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                                                                      • Originally posted by IrishRazor82 View Post

                                                                        And now I see Baylor lost to Ok State the first time around. I'm getting really close to pulling for Ok State this weekend. Help me here...
                                                                        i think baylor wins a rematch against okst. if ou wins bedlam, they'll rematch osu because osu beat baylor earlier. we just need the winner of bedlam to lose in the b12cg.

                                                                        if uga wins the seccg, and the winner of bedlam loses the b12cg then nd goes to the playoff.

                                                                        worst case, we play pitt/wake/clemson in the peach bowl. maybe oregon or some other at large team in the fiesta. ny6 bowl as a worst case scenario isn't to shabby.

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                                                                        • Originally posted by Irish Knuckles View Post

                                                                          i think baylor wins a rematch against okst. if ou wins bedlam, they'll rematch osu because osu beat baylor earlier. we just need the winner of bedlam to lose in the b12cg.

                                                                          if uga wins the seccg, and the winner of bedlam loses the b12cg then nd goes to the playoff.

                                                                          worst case, we play pitt/wake/clemson in the peach bowl. maybe oregon or some other at large team in the fiesta. ny6 bowl as a worst case scenario isn't to shabby.
                                                                          IF the Irish don't make the playoffs, then I'd like to see them play the Ducks in the Fiesta. Playing on New Years Day over a 12/30 date and the Fiesta vs the Peach just sounds much better to me.

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                                                                          • Playing Oregon would be best case scenario draw. That's a big name and the this team could definitely whoop on the Ducks.

                                                                            Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk

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                                                                            • Originally posted by zelezo vlk View Post
                                                                              Playing Oregon would be best case scenario draw. That's a big name and the this team could definitely whoop on the Ducks.

                                                                              Sent from my SM-J337U using Tapatalk
                                                                              Maybe if their #1 draft pick DE doesn't play. Otherwise, I'm not sure we are whooping them, let alone beating them.

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                                                                              • ND is likely going to play Wake or Pitt in the Peach Bowl if they don't make the playoff.
                                                                                It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • Originally posted by pumpdog20 View Post

                                                                                  Maybe if their #1 draft pick DE doesn't play. Otherwise, I'm not sure we are whooping them, let alone beating them.
                                                                                  He definitely isn't playing in a bowl game.

                                                                                  I haven't watched Oregon closely but I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen. What gives you pause about an ND/Oregon matchup?

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                                                                                  • Originally posted by Rogue219 View Post
                                                                                    ND is likely going to play Wake or Pitt in the Peach Bowl if they don't make the playoff.
                                                                                    It's based on the committee right?

                                                                                    If Cincinnati makes the playoff and ND doesn't (the most likely scenario, IMO) then what criteria would they use to allocate those bowl spots? I have to assume that if there's complete discretion then they are less likely to pair ND with an ACC opponent even if they haven't seen each other this season.

                                                                                    Though that's more likely than giving ND a Fiesta bid with a Cincinnati rematch if there's no G5 in the playoff.

                                                                                    EDIT: I suppose to clarify for any conversation the bowl situation this year is that that there are two at large bids. One in the Fiesta vs. the highest G5 team and one in the Peach vs. the ACC representative. If a G5 team goes to the playoff then the G5 has no autobid to the NY6 and the Fiesta becomes two at-large bids.

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                                                                                    • Originally posted by Rogue219 View Post
                                                                                      ND is likely going to play Wake or Pitt in the Peach Bowl if they don't make the playoff.
                                                                                      I would be a wreck in this scenario all the way up to the game. A game we should definitely win, but would absolutely destroy the progress of the program if we were to lose.
                                                                                      Love You JB 64.....RIP.....AI720....4EVER

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                                                                                      • Originally posted by Pops Freshenmeyer View Post

                                                                                        He definitely isn't playing in a bowl game.

                                                                                        I haven't watched Oregon closely but I haven't been all that impressed with what I've seen. What gives you pause about an ND/Oregon matchup?
                                                                                        I haven't done a heavy analysis on it, but I would think if that DE played, he'd likely wreck our offensive game plan single handily. Plus they were good enough to beat OSU in Columbus. Maybe the tides have turned between those two teams, but clearly they have the talent to be dangerous.

                                                                                        So... An offensive line that reminds of earlier in the season if Thibodeaux plays; speed on offense and we're without KH. I can see this being a challenge. But I don't know much.

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                                                                                        • Originally posted by rtrn2glory View Post

                                                                                          I would be a wreck in this scenario all the way up to the game. A game we should definitely win, but would absolutely destroy the progress of the program if we were to lose.
                                                                                          Another reason to want to make the playoff. Winning a game against Pitt or Wake does nothing for the program. Nothing. I'd rather get blown out by UGA in the playoff.

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                                                                                          • Originally posted by NDMatt91 View Post

                                                                                            Another reason to want to make the playoff. Winning a game against Pitt or Wake does nothing for the program. Nothing. I'd rather get blown out by UGA in the playoff.
                                                                                            Winning a NY6 bowl, finishing with a 12-1 record, and carrying all that momentum into the off-season isn't "nothing".

                                                                                            I understand the argument for wanting to make a 3rd playoff appearance in four years, but getting waxed in the semi-final again doesn't help the narrative. Maybe it's better, but it's not pure upside.

                                                                                            It's not likely to happen and beyond our control anyway, so there's no season in losing sleep over it.

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                                                                                            • Originally posted by Pops Freshenmeyer View Post

                                                                                              It's based on the committee right?

                                                                                              If Cincinnati makes the playoff and ND doesn't (the most likely scenario, IMO) then what criteria would they use to allocate those bowl spots? I have to assume that if there's complete discretion then they are less likely to pair ND with an ACC opponent even if they haven't seen each other this season.

                                                                                              Though that's more likely than giving ND a Fiesta bid with a Cincinnati rematch if there's no G5 in the playoff.

                                                                                              EDIT: I suppose to clarify for any conversation the bowl situation this year is that that there are two at large bids. One in the Fiesta vs. the highest G5 team and one in the Peach vs. the ACC representative. If a G5 team goes to the playoff then the G5 has no autobid to the NY6 and the Fiesta becomes two at-large bids.
                                                                                              My understanding is that all four spots in the peach and fiest are at large.

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                                                                                              • Looking more closely you might be right about the Peach Bowl.

                                                                                                I thought they had to take an ACC team because the Orange Bowl is part of the playoff this year.

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                                                                                                • Originally posted by rtrn2glory View Post

                                                                                                  I would be a wreck in this scenario all the way up to the game. A game we should definitely win, but would absolutely destroy the progress of the program if we were to lose.
                                                                                                  Pitt and Wake both have very good QBs. I think it would ultimately boil down to Freeman scheming against those guys and ND's offense being more like the second half of the season unit versus the first half version. Pitt's QB should probably win the Heisman because he's not surrounding by mega talent like the kids at Ohio State and Alabama. I would also assume that NFL teams are going to look closer in the months ahead and he'll shoot up the draft boards. It will start with this bowl game and the Senior Bowl.

                                                                                                  I'd honestly rather ND face Wake than Pitt. I think ND would beat both, but give me a choice and I'll take Wake for four quarters instead of Pitt's QB.
                                                                                                  It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                  • Originally posted by NDMatt91 View Post

                                                                                                    Another reason to want to make the playoff. Winning a game against Pitt or Wake does nothing for the program. Nothing. I'd rather get blown out by UGA in the playoff.
                                                                                                    i get it wouldn’t be like winning a natty but finally adding a NY6 win to the 10 wins a year streak absolutely would be a positive for the program…
                                                                                                    Last edited by ACamp1900; 11-23-2021, 12:42 PM.
                                                                                                    There is no such thing as a boneless wing!! Stop trying to make your nugget sound all fancy.

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                                                                                                    • Originally posted by ACamp1900 View Post

                                                                                                      i get it wouldn’t be like winning a natty but finally adding a NY6 win to the 10 season ins a year streak absolutely would be a positive for the program…
                                                                                                      It's almost a 'double-edged sword' IMO... Being Independent, the goal is to get to the playoffs, and of course win it all. Although, a NY6 would look great but to whom? The recruits? Fans? Administration? Players? I'm actually torn between the two. I do believe that if the Irish do get into the playoffs, it will be the '4' spot more than likely and playing either O$U or GA. And if it is not the playoffs and a NY6 game; does KH come back? Does the 'injured crew' have time to get back in shape/released to play?

                                                                                                      Lots of variables still to be played out.

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