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  • Path to the CFP?

    So do we have a legit path to the playoffs?
    Here’s who’s ahead of us and should have one or more losses before bowl season:

    Ole Miss 2 losses
    Michigan 1-2 losses
    Michigan St 1-3 losses
    Iowa 2-3 losses and WTF are they doing ahead of us?!
    Ok 1-3 losses but they suck
    Oregon 1-2 losses
    So we jump a one loss Cincy? 1993 FSU?
    OSU is in with one loss not 2
    Bama is in with one loss not 2
    GA is in with one loss not 2
    we need more style points frankly and we had a chance
    at the goal line until some dipshit had a procedure call.

    One loss ND gets in over any 2 loss team. Need the PAC 12, Big 12 and Big 10 to ruin everything for each other.

    We need to win more convincingly as the season progresses. Both on the field and the scoreboard. 38-16 would have been a real eye opener.

    This offense can score faster and score more with more Buchner. I think TB can be our red zone finisher.

  • #2
    I don't think so. Very weak schedule.

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    • #3
      No. And while it would be cool to go back to back appearances, I’m not trying to see this offense go against that Georgia defense. Let’s go 11-1 and play Wake in the Orange Bowl and win 60-46 or something like that

      Comment


      • #4
        What's the path to beating North Carolina?

        It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

        Comment


        • #5
          Our schedule is awful. This is why we should join a conference. We'd still have a shot. Don't know if it would matter though, I see us dropping another game somewhere.

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          • #6
            We don't want to make it.... We want to win a legit bowl game and build for next year.

            If we make it we're staring at another raping on the national scene
            Love You JB 64.....RIP.....AI720....4EVER

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            • #7
              So no path then? You think Kelly and this team are hoping they rise no higher than #5 in order to avoid a beat down? I doubt they would want to pussy out.

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by rtrn2glory View Post
                We don't want to make it.... We want to win a legit bowl game and build for next year.

                If we make it we're staring at another raping on the national scene
                Gimme a CFP appearance no matter the result over a NY6 win 24/7, 365.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by BeatSC View Post
                  So no path then? You think Kelly and this team are hoping they rise no higher than #5 in order to avoid a beat down? I doubt they would want to pussy out.
                  You asked if there is a path and people said no lol. Nobody said the team themselves wouldn’t play their ass off to get to whatever the end result is or would “pussy out”

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                  • #10
                    Not going to happen, but would love to get a rematch against Cincinnati in the playoff.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      It’s hard to say, we’ll know more when the rankings come out. If Cincy is in the playoff, then that means you’ve got SEC, Cincy, Big 10. So we would need OU to lose possibly twice, Oregon to lose another and Bama to lose to Georgia in the SEC championship. And even then we may not jump Bama.
                      Love Thee Notre Dame!

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                      • #12
                        Repeat after me.....

                        There is no possible path for Notre Dame
                        There is no possible path for Notre Dame

                        Our best win of the season will likely be a 4 or 5 loss team. Our schedule sucks and we have struggled against it. There are multiple potential 2 loss power 5 teams that will get far more consideration than us even if we win out.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          I don't think there's even the slightest chance... we don't pass the eye test and there's no one left on our schedule who gives us that top credibility. A 10+ win season is a hellueva coaching job. I'll take the NY6 bowl with a win though.

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                          • #14
                            Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.

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                            • #15
                              Originally posted by dad4aa View Post
                              Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.
                              LOL No

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                              • #16
                                Originally posted by dad4aa View Post
                                Glad a lot you aren’t on the committee. No way a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND with their lone loss being against the #2 or #3 team in the country. We may not have a quality win but in the scenario mentioned, every 2-loss above us will have a terrible loss.
                                The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.

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                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by Dale View Post

                                  The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.
                                  I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.

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                                  • #18
                                    Originally posted by dad4aa View Post

                                    I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.
                                    If you map out the above, I can absolutely point to a 2 loss B1G and SEC team that would have a better resume than ND. Not to mention the Baylor, UK etc omitted.

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                                    • #19
                                      Let’s hope the 0.0000000001% chance happens then so we can see who is right.

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                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by dad4aa View Post

                                        I agree it won’t happen. The problem is there are people thinking a 2-loss team gets in over 11-1 ND. Just done see that happening.
                                        It depends on the the team and the two losses. Looking at it realistically, the only two loss teams I could see getting in are Texas A&M and OSU.

                                        For A&M it's simple....they need Bama to lose one more and they run the table, including SECCG. That would give them wins over a 10-2 Bama squad, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn. They would probably have 2 of the top 5 victories in all of CFB, including the best victory (UGA) in that scenario. I just don't see how they would not get in if that were to happen (it's a long shot).

                                        A 2 loss OSU would get in above 1-loss ND if the following happened:

                                        - OSU loses to MSU, beats UM
                                        - UM beats MSU
                                        - UM / OSU beat PSU
                                        - PSU beats MSU
                                        - OSU win Big 10 by beating 1 loss Iowa

                                        Final records - OSU 11-2, with wins against 2 top 10 teams in back to back weeks. Two losses would be to 15 teams too.
                                        UM 11-1
                                        MSU 10-2
                                        Iowa 10-2
                                        PSU - lol

                                        Again, it's not a likely scenario, but I just don't see how OSU wouldn't get in in that scenario, especially if Cincy, Oregon or OU loses.

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                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by Dale View Post

                                          The scenario mentioned is 0.0000000001% chance of happening. Rounding up.
                                          So what you’re saying is there’s a chance?!

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                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by Dale View Post

                                            If you map out the above, I can absolutely point to a 2 loss B1G and SEC team that would have a better resume than ND. Not to mention the Baylor, UK etc omitted.
                                            One loss trumps 2 losses on the resume. Bottom line. 11-1 and we are in. As ling as we keep winning this thread lives on! Gotta have something to live for right?

                                            Question: if we lose another game so we abandon Coan and get Buchner the extra experience while also seeing what me missed out on by not starting him all along?

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                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by Ndaccountant View Post

                                              It depends on the the team and the two losses. Looking at it realistically, the only two loss teams I could see getting in are Texas A&M and OSU.

                                              For A&M it's simple....they need Bama to lose one more and they run the table, including SECCG. That would give them wins over a 10-2 Bama squad, Georgia, Ole Miss, Auburn. They would probably have 2 of the top 5 victories in all of CFB, including the best victory (UGA) in that scenario. I just don't see how they would not get in if that were to happen (it's a long shot).

                                              A 2 loss OSU would get in above 1-loss ND if the following happened:

                                              - OSU loses to MSU, beats UM
                                              - UM beats MSU
                                              - UM / OSU beat PSU
                                              - PSU beats MSU
                                              - OSU win Big 10 by beating 1 loss Iowa

                                              Final records - OSU 11-2, with wins against 2 top 10 teams in back to back weeks. Two losses would be to 15 teams too.
                                              UM 11-1
                                              MSU 10-2
                                              Iowa 10-2
                                              PSU - lol

                                              Again, it's not a likely scenario, but I just don't see how OSU wouldn't get in in that scenario, especially if Cincy, Oregon or OU loses.
                                              Sounds like we win out and we’re in!!!

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                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                Sounds like we win out and we’re in!!!
                                                No, don't think so. Realistically, we should assume one of UM and OSU is in. UGA should be in barring a major upset. Oklahoma is a very flawed team, but I just don't see anyone in the Big 12 beating them. Oregon would get in if they make it unbeaten the rest of the way. Bama needs to win out to be in (including beating UGA). Then there is Cincy.

                                                Chaos could happen, but for ND to make it, they most likely need OSU to lose once more, UM to lose twice, MSU to lose twice, Iowa to lose once, Oklahoma to probably lose twice, Oregon to lose once more, Bama to lose once more, Ole Miss to lose once more, Cincy to lose twice, and probably Kentucky once more as well.

                                                With 4 spots, you know that SEC and Big 10 are very likely to get at least once spot. The final 2 will be between Pac 12 winner, Big 12 winner, SEC#2, Big 10#2 and Cincy. I just don't see a scenario playing out at all where a 1 loss ND get's in versus a 1 loss of those final 2. It's going to take a super chaotic November.

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                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by Ndaccountant View Post

                                                  No, don't think so. Realistically, we should assume one of UM and OSU is in. UGA should be in barring a major upset. Oklahoma is a very flawed team, but I just don't see anyone in the Big 12 beating them. Oregon would get in if they make it unbeaten the rest of the way. Bama needs to win out to be in (including beating UGA). Then there is Cincy.

                                                  Chaos could happen, but for ND to make it, they most likely need OSU to lose once more, UM to lose twice, MSU to lose twice, Iowa to lose once, Oklahoma to probably lose twice, Oregon to lose once more, Bama to lose once more, Ole Miss to lose once more, Cincy to lose twice, and probably Kentucky once more as well.

                                                  With 4 spots, you know that SEC and Big 10 are very likely to get at least once spot. The final 2 will be between Pac 12 winner, Big 12 winner, SEC#2, Big 10#2 and Cincy. I just don't see a scenario playing out at all where a 1 loss ND get's in versus a 1 loss of those final 2. It's going to take a super chaotic November.
                                                  Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

                                                  Cincy only needs to lose once.

                                                  Just for reference ESPN has us at a 32% chance of making it winning out and 538 has us at 34% with winning out. I wouldn't bet my life on those percentages, but they are far from a million to one shot.
                                                  Last edited by GATTACA!; 10-24-2021, 10:53 PM.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post

                                                    Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

                                                    Cincy only needs to lose once.
                                                    1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                      1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.
                                                      Absolutely. The committee will have to have their arm twisted to let them in even undefeated. If they lose any game they're out no matter what.

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post

                                                        Absolutely. The committee will have to have their arm twisted to let them in even undefeated. If they lose any game they're out no matter what.
                                                        Works for me!

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                                                        • #29
                                                          Originally posted by GATTACA! View Post

                                                          Oklahoma State is 100% beating OU. OU just got pushed to their limit by KANSAS.

                                                          Cincy only needs to lose once.

                                                          Just for reference ESPN has us at a 32% chance of making it winning out and 538 has us at 34% with winning out. I wouldn't bet my life on those percentages, but they are far from a million to one shot.
                                                          If OU loses once, to your point, OSU, I still think they get in if they are 12-1.

                                                          In that scenario, they would have wins over both Iowa State and Baylor. While I don't think either of those wins are all that great, it would still be two ranked victories over the final month of the season. ND might not have any victories over a ranked team by season's end. Best hope is for Wisconsin to take out Iowa and get past the rest of their schedule, which seems unlikely. Simply put, it's likely ND will not have any victory of note by year end.

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                            1993 we beat FSU and they are ranked ahead of us. Cincy loses one game and we jump them.
                                                            FSU was the media darling at that point. The previous few years the media would constantly bemoan the fact that FSU hadn't won a title, despite being the "best team" at the end of the year. Simply put, it was rigged to favor FSU so Bobby B could finally win a ring. It's even more odd in light of 1989, where Miami got the nod over ND because of head to head. Either way, much different times.

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                                                            • #31
                                                              Even of we win out there won't be a single top 25 win on the resume. That doesn't get 2021 ND in the playoffs. We basically have a mid major schedule this year.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                The powers that be will do everything to keep ND out this year because of how we're winning and the "eye test." We need to worry about UNC. I don't like the line being so low.

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  2015 ND's team had a shot at getting in based on their "best win" being a close loss to Clemson. It became irrelevant when they lost to Stanford. But the path seems similar here. Win out and let the chips fall. I wouldn't slam the door on an 11-1 ND team and the CFP, but I do think it's highly unlikely. A lot has to happen.

                                                                  I'd gladly take another appearance in the playoffs, but this team needs to make some significant strides on both sides of the ball to be considered a contender and not just a filler. Realistically, I think this team can get a solid NY6 bowl game matchup, and as long as it's not OSU, they have a solid chance of winning (which is something that hasn't happened in a long long time).

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                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Originally posted by BleedBlueGold View Post
                                                                    2015 ND's team had a shot at getting in based on their "best win" being a close loss to Clemson. It became irrelevant when they lost to Stanford. But the path seems similar here. Win out and let the chips fall. I wouldn't slam the door on an 11-1 ND team and the CFP, but I do think it's highly unlikely. A lot has to happen.

                                                                    I'd gladly take another appearance in the playoffs, but this team needs to make some significant strides on both sides of the ball to be considered a contender and not just a filler. Realistically, I think this team can get a solid NY6 bowl game matchup, and as long as it's not OSU, they have a solid chance of winning (which is something that hasn't happened in a long long time).
                                                                    2015 had a shot, because they were playing #9 Stanford on the road in the last game of the season. Win that game against a top 10 team combined with the close loss to #1 Clemson, you give yourself a fighting shot. There is no similar opportunity this year.

                                                                    Edit:

                                                                    We also beat Navy which was ranked 15th going into Stanford and Temple which was #25. Again, no similar items this year.
                                                                    Last edited by ab2cmiller; 10-25-2021, 08:23 AM.

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Originally posted by BleedBlueGold View Post
                                                                      2015 ND's team had a shot at getting in based on their "best win" being a close loss to Clemson. It became irrelevant when they lost to Stanford. But the path seems similar here. Win out and let the chips fall. I wouldn't slam the door on an 11-1 ND team and the CFP, but I do think it's highly unlikely. A lot has to happen.

                                                                      I'd gladly take another appearance in the playoffs, but this team needs to make some significant strides on both sides of the ball to be considered a contender and not just a filler. Realistically, I think this team can get a solid NY6 bowl game matchup, and as long as it's not OSU, they have a solid chance of winning (which is something that hasn't happened in a long long time).
                                                                      My dream right now is to meet PITT in a NY6 game. It would literally make Narduzzi's head explode. It would be the sign that all the craziness in the world will start to subside in 2022. Perfect omen.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        It's an easy path and highly likely...

                                                                        OSU loses to Penn State.
                                                                        Michigan State loses to Ohio State and Michigan
                                                                        Michigan loses to Ohio State and Penn State

                                                                        They all have 2 losses...

                                                                        Georgia loses to Florida and Alabama
                                                                        Alabama loses to LSU in Ed O's last hurrah

                                                                        Both have 2 losses...

                                                                        Oklahoma loses to Iowa State and Oklahoma State
                                                                        Oklahoma State loses in the Big 12 Championship Game

                                                                        Both have 2 losses...

                                                                        Oregon loses to Oregon State

                                                                        Oregon has 2 losses...

                                                                        ND is in!

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          I believe I saw two bowl game projections: vs Pitt in Fiesta and vs Baylor in Cheez-It, formallly Camping Sports World
                                                                          Prehistoric

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            You guys want to see us play Georgia? It would look a lot worse than the last playoff game. Is a 38-3 (or worse) loss better than a Fiesta bowl win?
                                                                            60% of the time, it works every time.

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              OU might lose before Bedlam, but to say OSU beats OU "100%" is pretty bold. I'm not putting a mortgage payment on Oklahoma State beating anyone.
                                                                              It is no coincidence that the growth of modern tyrants has in every case been heralded by the growth of prejudice.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                There is virtually no chance of ND making the playoffs because the schedule does not have any marquee games on it this year. A 2-loss conference champ will likely get in over ND, as will Cincinnati.

                                                                                Basically, what we're headed towards is either:
                                                                                1. Georgia or SEC Champ Bama
                                                                                2. Whoever wins the Big Ten
                                                                                3. Oklahoma
                                                                                4. SEC Runner Up Georgia OR ACC Champ OR PAC12 Champ OR Cinci

                                                                                A 1 loss ND is at best going to be ~8th in the pecking order. With total chaos, maybe 5th or 6th. But they have no ability to leapfrog Cinci.

                                                                                Comment


                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by BeatSC View Post

                                                                                  One loss trumps 2 losses on the resume. Bottom line. 11-1 and we are in. As ling as we keep winning this thread lives on! Gotta have something to live for right?

                                                                                  Question: if we lose another game so we abandon Coan and get Buchner the extra experience while also seeing what me missed out on by not starting him all along?
                                                                                  fan is short for fanatic. It’s natural to get caught up in the hype of a 6-1 team that just handled their rival in prime time. Problem is that most ND beat writers even have ND as a 10-2 team b/c they’re so unpredictable in every phase of the game. Granted, I heard Sampson & Fortuna agree that 11-1 is now more likely than 9-3 but they still land on 10-2 as the likely outcome.

                                                                                  There is yet to be an impressive win on this schedule and it looks like there won’t be even if ND wins out. It’s also likely they won’t even have a win over a team that finishes the season ranked. We all knew this would be a transition year but not to the extent it has been once it was clear the OL would have to really improve to reach average status. What saved ND’s season is their entire schedule sans Cincy also ended up worse than expected. FSU, Wisconsin, USC, UNC, Stanford & even Toledo were supposed to be more competitive than they are to date

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                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Rogue219 View Post
                                                                                    OU might lose before Bedlam, but to say OSU beats OU "100%" is pretty bold. I'm not putting a mortgage payment on Oklahoma State beating anyone.
                                                                                    I give ISU a better shot at beating Okie St. Clones have been a thorn in the side to OU since Campbell has been there.

                                                                                    Comment


                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by ab2cmiller View Post

                                                                                      2015 had a shot, because they were playing #9 Stanford on the road in the last game of the season. Win that game against a top 10 team combined with the close loss to #1 Clemson, you give yourself a fighting shot. There is no similar opportunity this year.

                                                                                      Edit:

                                                                                      We also beat Navy which was ranked 15th going into Stanford and Temple which was #25. Again, no similar items this year.
                                                                                      Fair point. I was going off memory and didn't realize Stanford or Navy were ranked that year.

                                                                                      ND against anyone but OSU in a bowl game this year will okay with me. Win and carry momentum into 2022.

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by BleedBlueGold View Post

                                                                                        Fair point. I was going off memory and didn't realize Stanford or Navy were ranked that year.

                                                                                        ND against anyone but OSU in a bowl game this year will okay with me. Win and carry momentum into 2022.
                                                                                        Basically where I'm at. Would love to get an ACC champ or a Big 12/Big Ten team in a bowl game. The #1 thing I don't want is a 2-loss Bama in a bowl game.

                                                                                        Comment


                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by IrishLax View Post

                                                                                          Basically where I'm at. Would love to get an ACC champ or a Big 12/Big Ten team in a bowl game. The #1 thing I don't want is a 2-loss Bama in a bowl game.
                                                                                          Correct.

                                                                                          Random question: What will be the status of some of the hurt players and their bowl eligibility? Marist, for example.

                                                                                          I think this ND looks a lot different 8 weeks from now if they continue progressing on the OL, the QB situation gets sorted out, and we get some guys back. We're already seeing some freshmen contributors make an impact and they should only get better as the season goes on. I don't want Bama either, but this team, if it continues to get better offensively should be able to run with any other non-Bama/non-CFP team come January. Yes?

                                                                                          Comment


                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by BleedBlueGold View Post

                                                                                            Correct.

                                                                                            Random question: What will be the status of some of the hurt players and their bowl eligibility? Marist, for example (I don't think I've read how long he'd be out besides "the season" He was injured this summer, he'd be what, 6 months out? Was his time table much longer?).

                                                                                            I think this ND looks a lot different 8 weeks from now if they continue progressing on the OL, the QB situation gets sorted out, and we get some guys back. We're already seeing some freshmen contributors make an impact and they should only get better as the season goes on. I don't want Bama either, but this team, if it continues to get better offensively should be able to run with any other non-Bama/non-CFP team come January. Yes?

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              I really wouldn't mind playing the Fiesta Bowl/Peach Bowl against Wake or Pitt...

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                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                If we get Bama in a new year's 6 I will lose my mind.

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                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by Irish4life View Post

                                                                                                  Gimme a CFP appearance no matter the result over a NY6 win 24/7, 365.
                                                                                                  ND won’t get in this year due to a poor schedule, but you are 100% right.

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                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Irishnuke View Post
                                                                                                    You guys want to see us play Georgia? It would look a lot worse than the last playoff game. Is a 38-3 (or worse) loss better than a Fiesta bowl win?
                                                                                                    I think it’s more about the opportunity to compete on the highest stage. If the opportunity arises, it’s still valuable experience for the program. I understand your perspective though. Like another poster said, I’d like to see us play Cincy again as a 2/4, but this is not likely to happen. We aren’t making the playoffs this year.

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