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  • COVID-19

    US has about 600 confirmed cases now, per link below:

    https://www.arcgis.com/apps/opsdashb...23467b48e9ecf6

    Could get wild here in the next few weeks. Stay safe, boys.

  • #2
    Can anyone remember an outbreak/scare like this happening?

    Guy at work said he can only think of the AIDS epidemic.
    "Fvck Michigan" - The World

    Comment


    • #3
      A kid in Avon IN tested positive and the school is shutting down for two weeks. I think we’re gonna see some panic in IN because of it.
      Love Thee Notre Dame!

      Comment


      • #4
        First presumptive case in Louisiana just announced by the Gov, patient is being treated in Orleans Parish (my guess is at Ochsner - Jefferson Highway Campus, but could be anywhere).

        I'm just hoping my workplace starts encouraging people to work remotely. We already can and do most of our job remote anyways...

        Comment


        • #5
          Originally posted by GreenGemsOmally View Post
          First presumptive case in Louisiana just announced by the Gov, patient is being treated in Orleans Parish (my guess is at Ochsner - Jefferson Highway Campus, but could be anywhere).

          I'm just hoping my workplace starts encouraging people to work remotely. We already can and do most of our job remote anyways...
          All the Deans and Chairs are having a meeting right now about this... I think our fac/staff meeting on Wednesday is going to cover when we go to this and how it looks... crazy times.
          This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

          Comment


          • #6
            People are overreacting, if you ask me.

            Comment


            • #7
              Originally posted by Henges24 View Post
              Can anyone remember an outbreak/scare like this happening?

              Guy at work said he can only think of the AIDS epidemic.
              One that directly affected the global market in such way? Not that comes to mind for me.

              Pandemics aren't new, and that is why many people still do not see the potential danger with this virus. Many people have been desensitized to a threat of a pandemic because they see it in the news all of the time: Ebola in Africa, 2009 Swine Flu, Zika Virus, West Nile Virus, etc. For many people, they have never been directly affected by these things, but they have seen them drummed up for years and so they see this and just think, "well, the flu kills tens of thousands of people every year, why should this worry me?"

              I am cautiously watching this one though just because it seems to be only beginning and it seems that it's make up has made it incredibly hard to detect at times so we do not know the exact numbers. There have also been reports that should this not be largely stomped out in the US, it could become endemic.
              "Hey, I'll tell you what. You can get a good look at a butcher's *** by sticking your head up there. But, wouldn't you rather take his word for it?"

              Comment


              • #8
                Originally posted by arrowryan View Post
                People are overreacting, if you ask me.
                Yup. I almost want the Virus just so I can be interviewed by CNN and tell everyone I survived it.

                Comment


                • #9
                  Originally posted by Blazers46 View Post
                  Yup. I almost want the Virus just so I can be interviewed by CNN and tell everyone I survived it.
                  I mean, if the worst that happens is I get to work from home for two weeks then, bring it on. Still scary to think of my family getting it though... and feel for those who have or are going through it.
                  This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by Henges24 View Post
                    Can anyone remember an outbreak/scare like this happening?

                    Guy at work said he can only think of the AIDS epidemic.
                    Swine flu killed 12,000 Americans. This isn't that.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      I have a few partially-baked opinions/guesses on this (the "partial" here is because one of my degrees is biochemistry and I have sort-of followed some of this virus stuff for years --- don't take the following TOO seriously though and stay being good readers.)

                      1. This one seems to be very contagious. You don't need a lot of contact to get it. So all the stuff about hand-washing and semi-isolation is good advice. I'm guessing is that this thing "gets" you by ultimately being inhaled or otherwise entering your mouth/lungs. It seems to especially like lungs.

                      2. Early "returns" MIGHT indicate that this thing is WAY more likely NOT to kill you if you are not an elderly or otherwise weakened human. The bulk of the Washington State deaths (almost all that have occurred in the US in this first penetration) have taken persons from one old persons housing facility. It makes you sick though.

                      3. The virus outbreak in China seems already slowing down in its growth rate. This COULD mean that sensible behavior can mitigate its spread. If this is true even in the societal chaos that is China, this is cause for optimism.

                      4. We WILL have growth outbreaks here and there in the world for a while. Reason: we are the stupidest "intelligent species" in the Universe, as we constantly prove. We will also have flare-ups in the US even after we get it "under control". Reason: US citizens have a 45 second attention span and consequent behavioral challenges.

                      5. We might get the Magic Bullet quicker than the CDC currently guesses. Reason #1: We're genetically smarter in the lab than we've ever been. Past history on times-to-vaccine might not hold. Reason #2: China is involved, and if this thing gets bad, they'll probably do one of their lovely activities --- non-voluntary human testing. Nothing like human testing to speed medical breakthroughs.

                      Partially-baked advice: Stay in the upper 1% of intelligent behaving humans rather than the "typical irresponsible American" range (lower 20%). Stay alert/educated for a year at least on this. Stay clean. Stay healthy. Don't panic and do dumb things with your money. These things pass. This one will.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        I'm legit a bit worried about public Masses being canceled. But living through a plague doesn't sound all that bad.

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by ACamp1900 View Post
                          I mean, if the worst that happens is I get to work from home for two weeks then, bring it on. Still scary to think of my family getting it though... and feel for those who have or are going through it.
                          I really haven’t seen anything to be concerned about unless you are in one of the high risk categories - compromised immune system/underlying serious heath condition, elderly, infants. Even then I wouldn’t be any more worried about it than the seasonal flu, which most of us never think twice about every year. It would also be nice to see the media do some reporting on the vast majority of people who have had the virus and recovered instead of constantly stirring everyone into a frenzy. You know that’s not going to happen though because it won’t get the views the same way as inciting panic does.
                          I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.

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                          • #14
                            Originally posted by NDBoiler View Post
                            I really haven’t seen anything to be concerned about unless you are in one of the high risk categories - compromised immune system/underlying serious heath condition, elderly, infants. Even then I wouldn’t be any more worried about it than the seasonal flu, which most of us never think twice about every year. It would also be nice to see the media do some reporting on the vast majority of people who have had the virus and recovered instead of constantly stirring everyone into a frenzy. You know that’s not going to happen though because it won’t get the views the same way as inciting panic does.
                            I get all this,.. but if one of my girls come down with it, I know I'll be worried. My youngest had the flu last month for the record and I struggled with that too...
                            This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

                            Comment


                            • #15
                              Originally posted by ACamp1900 View Post
                              I get all this,.. but if one of my girls come down with it, I know I'll be worried. My youngest had the flu last month for the record and I struggled with that too...
                              Yeah 3/5 of my household had flu B and that was a rough couple of weeks. I don't know what we would have done if my wife and I didn't have jobs that lend themselves to working remotely.

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                              • #16
                                Originally posted by ACamp1900 View Post
                                I get all this,.. but if one of my girls come down with it, I know I'll be worried. My youngest had the flu last month for the record and I struggled with that too...
                                I understand completely, I wouldn’t want anyone in my family to get sick either. I guess my comment was more intended towards the panic aspect that some seem to be operating under.
                                I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.

                                Comment


                                • #17
                                  Biggest concern is the response. Would be bad if this triggers a long term economic crisis.
                                  "The problem with having a sense of humor is often that people you use it on aren't in a very good mood." - Lou Holtz

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                                  • #18
                                    Like Acamp said, my only concern is my 3 year old boys.

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                                    • #19
                                      Originally posted by GrangerIrish24 View Post
                                      Like Acamp said, my only concern is my 3 year old boys.
                                      Exactly, much less stressful now that my kids are older. Good luck. Twin boys must be a blast.
                                      "The problem with having a sense of humor is often that people you use it on aren't in a very good mood." - Lou Holtz

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                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by NDBoiler View Post
                                        I understand completely, I wouldn’t want anyone in my family to get sick either. I guess my comment was more intended towards the panic aspect that some seem to be operating under.
                                        I think the panic is justified, but I don't think its for the reasons you are saying. I don't think you should be worried about any serious illness from getting it, but what you should be worried about it spreading it to even more people if you get it. It might not effect you or anyone you spread it too, but the more people that have it the more likely it will be spread to the populations which it will effect. And the more people who do get seriously ill from it, the less effective our treatment is because we simply do not have the capacity to care for the numbers of people that would get seriously ill. Just look at what is happening in the locked down areas of Italy. They simply do not have enough spots in the ICUs or medical personnel to handle all of the cases. There are too many cases that require care for too long. What's worse is that it looks like we have an even lower capacity in the US so we will have an even worse response.

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                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by SouthSideChiDomer View Post
                                          I think the panic is justified, but I don't think its for the reasons you are saying. I don't think you should be worried about any serious illness from getting it, but what you should be worried about it spreading it to even more people if you get it. It might not effect you or anyone you spread it too, but the more people that have it the more likely it will be spread to the populations which it will effect. And the more people who do get seriously ill from it, the less effective our treatment is because we simply do not have the capacity to care for the numbers of people that would get seriously ill. Just look at what is happening in the locked down areas of Italy. They simply do not have enough spots in the ICUs or medical personnel to handle all of the cases. There are too many cases that require care for too long. What's worse is that it looks like we have an even lower capacity in the US so we will have an even worse response.
                                          This is my concern too - our capacity to handle a large volume of cases, especially since it appears to be highly contagious like OMM pointed out in a previous post.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by GrangerIrish24 View Post
                                            Like Acamp said, my only concern is my 3 year old boys.
                                            Originally posted by NDRock View Post
                                            Exactly, much less stressful now that my kids are older. Good luck. Twin boys must be a blast.
                                            Kids don't get it. They can carry it, but it doesn't make them sick.

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                                            • #23
                                              Not worried about getting it, I think the news is spreading fear. Worried about the economy crashing over this.

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                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by wizards8507 View Post
                                                Kids don't get it. They can carry it, but it doesn't make them sick.
                                                That is not correct....
                                                https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019...ldren-faq.html

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                                                • #25
                                                  Originally posted by wizards8507 View Post
                                                  Kids don't get it. They can carry it, but it doesn't make them sick.
                                                  Ill err on the side of caution.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    I wonder if I had it last month? I got my 6 mo peddie in a Wuhan-Tang Salon where my chick & her friends go and got a 6 day bug the next day that was the worst flu I've had in 30 years. Had to breakdown and do a Zpack when it felt like Bronchitis was starting. Of course, chickiepoo gets it from me and was off work for a week

                                                    Anyways, my chick tells me the salon is closed and won't reopen until next Monday due to owner vacation. Hmmm? Also, the same type of Salon that is next to my local bank branch was dead azz empty when I ran up there at lunch and all of the workers were sitting in there with surgical masks on. They're in trouble.

                                                    In regards to the economy. I've been playing Tesla hard this year and was going to swear it off after my last sell in Feb but I put an order if at $600 this morning and I might get there tomorrow. I'm not going crazy because I may have to buy more on the way down.

                                                    Another positive are mortgage rates. Rates fell to all time low of 3.29% last week on 30yr and that's not the end of it. The 10 yr treasury's hit an all time low yield of .318% overnight and is at just .55% now. We could have low 2% 30yr mortgages right around the corner. I've got a 3.5% re-fi waiting on the appraisal to come back that I might be throwing out for the better rate.

                                                    A flu bug is crashing oil, that will not last. Buy buy buy.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Originally posted by NDCrusader View Post
                                                      I wonder if I had it last month? I got my 6 mo peddie in a Wuhan-Tang Salon where my chick & her friends go and got a 6 day bug the next day that was the worst flu I've had in 30 years. Had to breakdown and do a Zpack when it felt like Bronchitis was starting. Of course, chickiepoo gets it from me and was off work for a week

                                                      Anyways, my chick tells me the salon is closed and won't reopen until next Monday due to owner vacation. Hmmm? Also, the same type of Salon that is next to my local bank branch was dead azz empty when I ran up there at lunch and all of the workers were sitting in there with surgical masks on. They're in trouble.

                                                      In regards to the economy. I've been playing Tesla hard this year and was going to swear it off after my last sell in Feb but I put an order if at $600 this morning and I might get there tomorrow. I'm not going crazy because I may have to buy more on the way down.

                                                      Another positive are mortgage rates. Rates fell to all time low of 3.29% last week on 30yr and that's not the end of it. The 10 yr treasury's hit an all time low yield of .318% overnight and is at just .55% now. We could have low 2% 30yr mortgages right around the corner. I've got a 3.5% re-fi waiting on the appraisal to come back that I might be throwing out for the better rate.

                                                      A flu bug is crashing oil, that will not last. Buy buy buy.
                                                      Russia is crashing oil, which might last for a bit if they're taking a long term position against U.S. shale production.

                                                      Comment


                                                      • #28
                                                        Can it play running back?

                                                        Comment


                                                        • #29
                                                          Originally posted by NDCrusader View Post
                                                          I wonder if I had it last month? I got my 6 mo peddie in a Wuhan-Tang Salon where my chick & her friends go and got a 6 day bug the next day that was the worst flu I've had in 30 years. Had to breakdown and do a Zpack when it felt like Bronchitis was starting. Of course, chickiepoo gets it from me and was off work for a week

                                                          Anyways, my chick tells me the salon is closed and won't reopen until next Monday due to owner vacation. Hmmm? Also, the same type of Salon that is next to my local bank branch was dead azz empty when I ran up there at lunch and all of the workers were sitting in there with surgical masks on. They're in trouble.

                                                          In regards to the economy. I've been playing Tesla hard this year and was going to swear it off after my last sell in Feb but I put an order if at $600 this morning and I might get there tomorrow. I'm not going crazy because I may have to buy more on the way down.

                                                          Another positive are mortgage rates. Rates fell to all time low of 3.29% last week on 30yr and that's not the end of it. The 10 yr treasury's hit an all time low yield of .318% overnight and is at just .55% now. We could have low 2% 30yr mortgages right around the corner. I've got a 3.5% re-fi waiting on the appraisal to come back that I might be throwing out for the better rate.

                                                          A flu bug is crashing oil, that will not last. Buy buy buy.
                                                          Well, oil was falling the last couple of weeks because the slowdown in worldwide demand due to the Coronavirus but that's not why it gapped down the way it did today. That was due to Russia giving OPEC the middle finger and the expectation that there will be not short term solutions to the weak demand. Also, some heavy speculation that many have wanted to drive the US shale producers out of business and now is a good time to do so.

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                                                          • #30
                                                            Not sure how everyone else is handling it but I am not letting it effect me. I am not in the high-risk category and am controlling what I can in regards to taking the common sense precautions the CDC laid out. I just got back from a Caribbean cruise and had a great time. Heading to Cancun in May as well. Media ALWAYS makes things worse than they are because bad news sells.

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                                                            • #31
                                                              Some of the factors that determine the extent and severity of microorganisms are:

                                                              - Infectivity. The infectivity of an organism reflects the relative ease with which microorganisms establish themselves in a host species.

                                                              - Virulence. The virulence of an organism reflects the relative severity of disease produced by that agent.

                                                              - Toxicity. The toxicity of an organism reflects the relative severity of illness or incapacitation produced by a toxin.

                                                              - Pathogenicity. This reflects the capability of an infectious organism to cause disease in a susceptible host.

                                                              - Incubation Period. A sufficient number of microorganisms must penetrate the body to initiate infection (the infective dose), or intoxication (the intoxicating dose).

                                                              - Transmissibility. Some biological organism can be transmitted from person-to-person directly.

                                                              - Lethality. Lethality reflects the relative ease with which an organism causes death in a susceptible population.

                                                              While some of these have yet to be determined w.r.t. COVID 19, looking at the Kirkland nursing home infection can illustrate.

                                                              The Lethality of that susceptible population may be higher due to their decreased immune responses whether from age, chronic diseases, etc. In general, nursing home personnel do not use the usual personal protective devices like gloves in the same situations that hospital staff use them. Plus these are low-wage workers who come to work possibly with early signs because they must maintain an income.

                                                              The Incubation Period and ability of the virus to Transmit while staff are asymptomatic and the relative ease of Infectivity on those highly susceptible population through respiratory or contact as the virus outside of a host impacts interventions to contain its spread.

                                                              Should the causative organism have the ability to replicate quickly with community spread through hosts with no or minimal symptoms before diagnosis through available testing are factors that are constraints on containment and isolation.

                                                              I understand some staff at Life Care Center have now been diagnosed with it after symptoms have now appeared. Also, in the case of a cancer hospital, dialysis center or in individuals in the community with lower immune responses, the lethality would be higher.

                                                              Video-conferencing with physicians, if it's available, in case of symptoms and the availability of test kits for home diagnosis could help prevent the spread within an urgent care or emergency department.
                                                              Last edited by Legacy; 03-09-2020, 04:56 PM.

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                                                              • #32
                                                                Originally posted by Henges24 View Post
                                                                Can anyone remember an outbreak/scare like this happening?

                                                                Guy at work said he can only think of the AIDS epidemic.
                                                                What's weird is that Swine Flu had infected 20+ million and killed tens of thousands before any state of emergency was declared. I remember that from college and it being a mere "wash your hands!" level of warning even after emergency was declared.

                                                                Comment


                                                                • #33
                                                                  Originally posted by IrishLax View Post
                                                                  What's weird is that Swine Flu had infected 20+ million and killed tens of thousands before any state of emergency was declared. I remember that from college and it being a mere "wash your hands!" level of warning even after emergency was declared.
                                                                  On 12 April 2010, Keiji Fukuda, the WHO's top influenza expert, stated that the system leading to the declaration of a pandemic led to confusion about H1N1 circulating around the world, and he expressed concern that there was a failure to communicate in regard to uncertainties about the new virus, which turned out to be not as deadly as feared. WHO Director-General Margaret Chan has appointed 29 flu experts from outside the organization to conduct a review of WHO's handling of the H1N1 flu pandemic. She has told them, "We want a frank, critical, transparent, credible and independent review of our performance".
                                                                  Good thing we've learned our lesson from back then....

                                                                  Comment


                                                                  • #34
                                                                    Originally posted by pkt77242 View Post
                                                                    That's basically what I said. They can get the infection, but it doesn't cause symptoms.

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Originally posted by wizards8507 View Post
                                                                      That's basically what I said. They can get the infection, but it doesn't cause symptoms.
                                                                      In all fairness Wiz, that’s not what is says either. It says they can get it and have symptoms, it’s just uncommon that kids have developed severe symptoms.

                                                                      Two kids from the same school in a suburb here in the Indy area have tested positive for it in the past couple days.
                                                                      I'm too drunk to taste this chicken.

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                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Originally posted by Luckylucci View Post
                                                                        Well, oil was falling the last couple of weeks because the slowdown in worldwide demand due to the Coronavirus but that's not why it gapped down the way it did today. That was due to Russia giving OPEC the middle finger and the expectation that there will be not short term solutions to the weak demand. Also, some heavy speculation that many have wanted to drive the US shale producers out of business and now is a good time to do so.
                                                                        Originally posted by Pops Freshenmeyer View Post
                                                                        Russia is crashing oil, which might last for a bit if they're taking a long term position against U.S. shale production.
                                                                        For sure Russia owns some of this, but how about Saudi for dropping it's prices a ton?

                                                                        One country that for sure is getting pummeled by this whole situation (virus + oil) is Iran.
                                                                        It's a recipe for all kinds of "bad".

                                                                        As far as trying to drive US shale producers out of business, I saw a piece not long ago that suggest it would be very hard to do that due to a mix of reasons. Do you have any good articles you'd suggest on the topic?
                                                                        The legend lives on from the Chippewa on down
                                                                        Of the big lake they called Gitche Gumee

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Supporting Boiler's post: CDC article definitely says that children can get symptoms. Thankfully SO FAR these are lesser in severity. But, scientifically, children with other health issues should be just as vulnerable as adults. This is not something to take lightly.

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                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Originally posted by IrishLax View Post
                                                                            What's weird is that Swine Flu had infected 20+ million and killed tens of thousands before any state of emergency was declared. I remember that from college and it being a mere "wash your hands!" level of warning even after emergency was declared.
                                                                            If you’re talking about the 2009 epidemic there were estimated to be 12,000-13,000 deaths in the US and a mortality rate below 0.1% (per Wikipedia’s sources).

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              Originally posted by arrowryan View Post
                                                                              People are overreacting, if you ask me.
                                                                              Amen, we likely have it already in every major city in America already. We just haven't noticed because we don't have the tests, and the fatality rate isn't that much different from any other flu. Their will be terrible panic when folks realize it is actually everywhere already, but in a month or two, after terrible economic damage, the press and everyone else will settle down.

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                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Wondering how this could effect recruiting and spring games coming up

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  Originally posted by SouthSideChiDomer View Post
                                                                                  I think the panic is justified, but I don't think its for the reasons you are saying. I don't think you should be worried about any serious illness from getting it, but what you should be worried about it spreading it to even more people if you get it. It might not effect you or anyone you spread it too, but the more people that have it the more likely it will be spread to the populations which it will effect. And the more people who do get seriously ill from it, the less effective our treatment is because we simply do not have the capacity to care for the numbers of people that would get seriously ill. Just look at what is happening in the locked down areas of Italy. They simply do not have enough spots in the ICUs or medical personnel to handle all of the cases. There are too many cases that require care for too long. What's worse is that it looks like we have an even lower capacity in the US so we will have an even worse response.
                                                                                  This is the concern my company shared w/ us. If even a small percentage get infected, they’re afraid the US doesn’t have the space to handle that in hospitals, etc.

                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    Originally posted by Irishize View Post
                                                                                    This is the concern my company shared w/ us. If even a small percentage get infected, they’re afraid the US doesn’t have the space to handle that in hospitals, etc.
                                                                                    Look at what's happening in Italy right now. They were laughing it off just a couple weeks ago and going about their lives as usual. Now their hospital system is on the verge of collapse and the entire country is on quarantine.

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      Originally posted by IrishLax View Post
                                                                                      What's weird is that Swine Flu had infected 20+ million and killed tens of thousands before any state of emergency was declared. I remember that from college and it being a mere "wash your hands!" level of warning even after emergency was declared.
                                                                                      Lmao yeah I remember one of my friends got it. I was in high school. We made fun of him. No one was concerned other than his mom and dad I'm pretty sure.

                                                                                      I'm not a scientist but I have a hard time getting worked up about a virus that doesnt seem to be the end of the world.

                                                                                      The thing that has cracked me up is some journos saying that it is racist to call it the "wuhan virus" even though a ton of these things are named after the place where the virus either started or gained notoriety.
                                                                                      Based Mullet Kid owns

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                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        3 things:
                                                                                        1) death rate seems to be trending toward a rate similar to influenza (which is down from the initial 3.4% estimate).
                                                                                        2) does not appear to affect children as severely
                                                                                        3) we should take it seriously (as we do with flu every year) but not overreact

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                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          I think the death rate being reported is higher than what it really is. They are hardly even testing anyone. I believe a lot more people have it than what can be reported.

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                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by calvegas04 View Post
                                                                                            I think the death rate being reported is higher than what it really is. They are hardly even testing anyone. I believe a lot more people have it than what can be reported.
                                                                                            Newer estimates put it at less than 1%.

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                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Originally posted by calvegas04 View Post
                                                                                              I think the death rate being reported is higher than what it really is. They are hardly even testing anyone. I believe a lot more people have it than what can be reported.
                                                                                              Conversely, it's widely known that China fudged the death numbers, with the COD being listed as pneumonia, in place of COVID-19.

                                                                                              Regardless, if you look closely at the numbers, the death rate declined than stabilized as the number of cases increased than stabilized as well. That is for two reasons.....1) as you mentioned, the number of mild cases are factored in, bringing down the death rate & 2) the initial influx of patients stressed their capacity to provide the kind of round-the-clock intensive care needed for a patient with a critical case of COVID-19.

                                                                                              The lesson out of all of this is that to win the war, you must first stop the spread. The moment the spread gets out of control, you will see the death rates increase. Remember, based on the 100K cases worldwide at this point, approx. 15-20% require hospitalization, with 15-20% of those patients requiring ICU support. Those %'s have remained relatively consistent across the world, meaning that prevention of spread and strain on hospitals is the best way to prevent large scale deaths.

                                                                                              I personally don't think people should panic, but I do think people need to stop getting all of their freaking news from reddit, facebook and twitter. Once again, social media is helping create hysteria.

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                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by Ndaccountant View Post
                                                                                                Conversely, it's widely known that China fudged the death numbers, with the COD being listed as pneumonia, in place of COVID-19.

                                                                                                Regardless, if you look closely at the numbers, the death rate declined than stabilized as the number of cases increased than stabilized as well. That is for two reasons.....1) as you mentioned, the number of mild cases are factored in, bringing down the death rate & 2) the initial influx of patients stressed their capacity to provide the kind of round-the-clock intensive care needed for a patient with a critical case of COVID-19.

                                                                                                The lesson out of all of this is that to win the war, you must first stop the spread. The moment the spread gets out of control, you will see the death rates increase. Remember, based on the 100K cases worldwide at this point, approx. 15-20% require hospitalization, with 15-20% of those patients requiring ICU support. Those %'s have remained relatively consistent across the world, meaning that prevention of spread and strain on hospitals is the best way to prevent large scale deaths.

                                                                                                I personally don't think people should panic, but I do think people need to stop getting all of their freaking news from reddit, facebook and twitter. Once again, social media is helping create hysteria.
                                                                                                For every one case that is identified there are probably 100 unidentified cases of mild disease. Nobody is going to go get tested for a stuffy nose. Until they can do large cross sectional seroconversion studies to get the denominator correct we wont know the true percentages. That is why we should not point to these percentages and extrapolate how many people will die/become severely ill and just stick with the absolutes.

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                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by InKellyWeTrust View Post
                                                                                                  For every one case that is identified there are probably 100 unidentified cases of mild disease. Nobody is going to go get tested for a stuffy nose. Until they can do large cross sectional seroconversion studies to get the denominator correct we wont know the true percentages. That is why we should not point to these percentages and extrapolate how many people will die/become severely ill and just stick with the absolutes.
                                                                                                  Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that some people do become sick enough to require hospitalization, with some ICU. The goal needs to be prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. If/when that happens, people should be concerned. Thus, focus on prevention of spread.

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                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    Originally posted by Ndaccountant View Post
                                                                                                    Sure, but that doesn't change the fact that some people do become sick enough to require hospitalization, with some ICU. The goal needs to be prevent hospitals from being overwhelmed. If/when that happens, people should be concerned. Thus, focus on prevention of spread.
                                                                                                    That's why I mentioned we should focus on the absolutes. In not suggesting you are doing it but I've seen people try to take the initial rates and extrapolate. These can be off by factors of 10, 100, or even 1000. This is how panic and fear start. That's all I'm saying.

                                                                                                    And unless you shut down all business and school and travel you cant stop this from spreading. This is nature taking its course and its trending to be similar to severe influenza.

                                                                                                    The weather warming up will help

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