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  • Hurricane (The Cyclone) Season 2016

    Here comes Hermine!

    Category 1 heading toward NE Gulf Coast.

    Tallahassee's gonna get wet!

    Hurricane HERMINE Public Advisory

  • #2
    Story time.

    I lived in FL a good bit of my life – 1959 through 1979.

    My "welcome" to Florida included hurricane Donna in 1959. My family of seven hightailed it to downtown St. Petersburg from St. Pete beach to hole up in a single hotel room. Between the wind and the noise of metal garbage cans roaring through the streets (not to mention four annoying and restless siblings) it was something of a sleepless night. My father had dutifully applied masking tape to the plate glass windows. As though that would have helped had Donna not skirted St. Pete.

    A few other hurricanes blew near Orlando the years I lived there. Once again we sustained no real damage. I do remember being at a school mate's house when one passed by in something like 1962. I still remember vividly the sight of a full moon dancing with the sprinting clouds after the rain had stopped.

    Another time I went water skiing on the small lake we lived on with a high school buddy after a hurricane had moved through. The water level on the lake was upped by two feet. Some of the docks were under water. I was towing my friend when I realized he was dangerously close to a submerged dock when he pulled as wide as possible from the wake on the shore side. I tried to wave him off, turn sharply to the middle of the lake and cut the engine. Too little too late.

    His momentum sent him skittering across the dock with the fin of the ski between the deck boards. Until, that is, he "met" a cross board. I looked back to see him do a one and a quarter flip into the lake. I swung around as quickly as I could.

    When I confirmed that he was unharmed I immediately asked "Is my ski broken?" Priorities!

    Thirty-six years in Minnesota and my only concerns were tornadoes and blizzards. Now that I'm back in Florida I'll see what happens.

    I have water, frozen food that I can eat whether the power goes out or not ... and a case of beer.

    I should be fine.
    Last edited by dshans; 09-01-2016, 10:11 PM.

    Comment


    • #3
      Hermine made landfall at 1:30 am ET near East St Marks, FL 80 mph.

      Heavy rain in Tampa and Tallahassee.

      Tornado watch in FL, GA, SC, and NC. tonight/tomorrow.

      Comment


      • #4
        Bitch looks like she gonna get in the way of my 10am tee time. Need the rain though.

        My 9 year old turned on the TV last night to see some idiot weather man in Florida braving the elements. She tends to turn a blind eye to danger and even she thought it was incredibly stupid.

        Comment


        • #5
          A lot of nervous people here in Columbia today. After last year's once in a century rainfall, this one is setting up to be a pretty big chunk of rain in a short time period. Eight inches in less than a 24 hour period. Let's hope all of the new damns hold tight.

          Comment


          • #6
            The last I checked about 80,000 power customers are out of power, and there are some roads closed because of debris. There were no reported injuries or fatalities.
            sigpic

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            • #7
              The worst part about this power outage is the lack of AC. It's pretty bad
              sigpic

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              • #8
                Matthew Is Coming

                Hurricane Matthew is down around the Cuba/Haiti vicinity but expected to move north along the eastern seaboard this week.Besides the folks living in that area it could impact the ND/NCS game in Raleigh, NC next Saturday. The 10 day forecast for Raleigh has rain Friday and Saturday with about 15 mph. Lots of variables between now and game time. Weather could be a factor and game could be cancelled IF the track moves closer to NC.

                Hurricane MATTHEW

                Comment


                • #9
                  We are definitely watching Matthew closely. Looks like it has made the northward turn as expected. Presently filling up my sandbags just in case.

                  Comment


                  • #10
                    Originally posted by IrishInFl View Post
                    The worst part about this power outage is the lack of AC. It's pretty bad
                    I don't need electricity brah, you're good...
                    This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

                    Comment


                    • #11
                      Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                      We are definitely watching Matthew closely. Looks like it has made the northward turn as expected. Presently filling up my sandbags just in case.
                      I'm supposed to be in Myrtle Beach on Thursday thru Monday. Hope this thing heads into the Atlantic.

                      Comment


                      • #12
                        Originally posted by GoIrish41 View Post
                        I'm supposed to be in Myrtle Beach on Thursday thru Monday. Hope this thing heads into the Atlantic.
                        I would make some new plans

                        Comment


                        • #13
                          Originally posted by dshans View Post
                          Story time.

                          I lived in FL a good bit of my life 1959 through 1979.

                          My "welcome" to Florida included hurricane Donna in 1959. My family of seven hightailed it to downtown St. Petersburg from St. Pete beach to hole up in a single hotel room. Between the wind and the noise of metal garbage cans roaring through the streets (not to mention four annoying and restless siblings) it was something of a sleepless night. My father had dutifully applied masking tape to the plate glass windows. As though that would have helped had Donna not skirted St. Pete.

                          A few other hurricanes blew near Orlando the years I lived there. Once again we sustained no real damage. I do remember being at a school mate's house when one passed by in something like 1962. I still remember vividly the sight of a full moon dancing with the sprinting clouds after the rain had stopped.

                          Another time I went water skiing on the small lake we lived on with a high school buddy after a hurricane had moved through. The water level on the lake was upped by two feet. Some of the docks were under water. I was towing my friend when I realized he was dangerously close to a submerged dock when he pulled as wide as possible from the wake on the shore side. I tried to wave him off, turn sharply to the middle of the lake and cut the engine. Too little too late.

                          His momentum sent him skittering across the dock with the fin of the ski between the deck boards. Until, that is, he "met" a cross board. I looked back to see him do a one and a quarter flip into the lake. I swung around as quickly as I could.

                          When I confirmed that he was unharmed I immediately asked "Is my ski broken?" Priorities!

                          Thirty-six years in Minnesota and my only concerns were tornadoes and blizzards. Now that I'm back in Florida I'll see what happens.

                          I have water, frozen food that I can eat whether the power goes out or not ... and a case of beer.

                          I should be fine.
                          I'm praying that will be enough.

                          Comment


                          • #14
                            Originally posted by GoIrish41 View Post
                            I'm supposed to be in Myrtle Beach on Thursday thru Monday. Hope this thing heads into the Atlantic.
                            I hope so too but it's not looking to good in the forecast models I am seeing. It is supposed to be about near Canaveral on Wed and then they are predicting a slight northwestern turn by Thursday. That is at the end of the probability field though so keep an eye on it.

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                            • #15
                              The cone track extrapolates from Wilmington to Moorehead City. But ... it's early.

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                              • #16
                                Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                I hope so too but it's not looking to good in the forecast models I am seeing. It is supposed to be about near Canaveral on Wed and then they are predicting a slight northwestern turn by Thursday. That is at the end of the probability field though so keep an eye on it.
                                We are keeping an eye on it it. Thanks for the info. Stay safe, Cack.

                                When I lived in Virginia about a decade ago, we decided to ride out a hurricane much smaller and weaker than this one. It was freakin terrifying! We lost power for more than a week. Lots of downed trees and property damage throughout our area. We had a 60 foot tree fall 10 feet from our front door, but luckily no damage to our house. I don't need to go to my wife's family reunion bad enough to experience that kind of craziness again.

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                                • #17
                                  Originally posted by GoIrish41 View Post
                                  We are keeping an eye on it it. Thanks for the info. Stay safe, Cack.

                                  When I lived in Virginia about a decade ago, we decided to ride out a hurricane much smaller and weaker than this one. It was freakin terrifying! We lost power for more than a week. Lots of downed trees and property damage throughout our area. We had a 60 foot tree fall 10 feet from our front door, but luckily no damage to our house. I don't need to go to my wife's family reunion bad enough to experience that kind of craziness again.
                                  I have been through ten or eleven of them the worst being Hugo. We lost all three of my family's cars to one pine tree. FTR there really is no difference between Myrtle Beach or Wilmington if it makes landfall that far north. The northwest side of the storms tend to be the worst from my experience and if it does make it up to Wilmington, Myrtle Beach would still get throttled anyway. .

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                                  • #18
                                    Well....looks like it's time to prepare.

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                                    • #19
                                      Some parts of Jamaica could get up to 40 inches of rain.
                                      Brotherhood may fade, but it will never run

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                                      • #20
                                        Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                        Well....looks like it's time to prepare.
                                        What caused me to first post about Matthew in this thread was my sister in Wilmington calling to ask for suggestions about how to minimize "ponding" in her yard.

                                        There are also cousins in Wilmington, Atlantic Beach, and Virginia Beach and beach houses in Kure Beach, Nags Head, and Duck. They're all scrambling this week.

                                        Comment


                                        • #21
                                          Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                          What caused me to first post about Matthew in this thread was my sister in Wilmington calling to ask for suggestions about how to minimize "ponding" in her yard.

                                          There are also cousins in Wilmington, Atlantic Beach, and Virginia Beach and beach houses in Kure Beach, Nags Head, and Duck. They're all scrambling this week.
                                          I am thinking the OBX get hit hard this weekend. Ponding may be the least of your sister's worries. :)
                                          My house is +10 ft above MSL and across from a tidal creek. I have been setting up sandbags. I doubt we stay if it hits. May go to the upstate for the weekend.
                                          Last edited by Cackalacky; 10-03-2016, 11:51 PM.

                                          Comment


                                          • #22
                                            Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                            I am thinking the OBX get hit hard this weekend. Ponding may be the least of your sister's worries. :)
                                            My house is -10 ft above MSL and across from a tidal creek. I have been setting up sandbags. I doubt we stay if it hits. May go to the upstate for the weekend.

                                            I was trying to explain that to her if this storm tracks west of Wilmington she'll be catching most of the rain. Her backyard and the backing neighbor's backyard are both ensconced in a jungle of flowers, bushes, and trees AND are higher than the front yard. She went to Lowe's today and bought sandbags and corrugated pipe to extend her downspouts into the backyard. I tried to explain the First Law of Sanitary Engineering, Shit flows downhill AND that if this forecast comes to pass, she won't be getting a couple inches of rain.

                                            She's comfortable that she's 4 to 8 feet above sea level. I gently tried to explain that sitting between the Cape Fear River and Masonboro Sound is better than be at sea level but not much if the storm's track holds. I tried explaining the impact of storm surge when one lives within a mile of bodies of water on three sides and the topography varies for sea level to +12. She grasped the surge but not the part where the upstream drainage no longer has no where to go as the downstream conditions deteriorate.

                                            On the good news front her house is raised a couple of feet (three or four step to finished first floor with nothing in the crawl space underneath) on her property. I did suggest trying to raise her air conditioner unit (compressor housing). Told her to call her AC gus as I don't suspect they'll be doing a lot of outdoor installations this week.

                                            What city are you in?

                                            Comment


                                            • #23
                                              Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                              I was trying to explain that to her if this storm tracks west of Wilmington she'll be catching most of the rain. Her backyard and the backing neighbor's backyard are both ensconced in a jungle of flowers, bushes, and trees AND are higher than the front yard. She went to Lowe's today and bought sandbags and corrugated pipe to extend her downspouts into the backyard. I tried to explain the First Law of Sanitary Engineering, Shit flows downhill AND that if this forecast comes to pass, she won't be getting a couple inches of rain.

                                              She's comfortable that she's 4 to 8 feet above sea level. I gently tried to explain that sitting between the Cape Fear River and Masonboro Sound is better than be at sea level but not much if the storm's track holds. I tried explaining the impact of storm surge when one lives within a mile of bodies of water on three sides and the topography varies for sea level to +12. She grasped the surge but not the part where the upstream drainage no longer has no where to go as the downstream conditions deteriorate.

                                              On the good news front her house is raised a couple of feet (three or four step to finished first floor with nothing in the crawl space underneath) on her property. I did suggest trying to raise her air conditioner unit (compressor housing). Told her to call her AC gus as I don't suspect they'll be doing a lot of outdoor installations this week.

                                              What city are you in?
                                              Mt. pleasant/Sullivan's Island /IOP I am surrounded by rivers, channels and tidal creeks.
                                              That's funny about explaining that stuff to your family. My family shuts down when I get into civil stuff. I can't tell them anything.
                                              Last edited by Cackalacky; 10-03-2016, 11:16 PM.

                                              Comment


                                              • #24
                                                Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                                Mt. pleasant/Sullivan's Island /IOP I am surrounded by rivers, channels and tidal creeks.
                                                That's funny about explaining that stuff to your family. My family shuts down when I get into civil stuff. I can't tell them anything.

                                                So you have the Ben Sawyer, Isle of Palms Connector, or boat as your options.

                                                How are you -10 on an island?

                                                -10 is my recollection of New Orleans in the low spots.


                                                My wife's family condo is in Orange Beach, AL. Ground floor is El 10. They're on the 13th floor with hurricane shutters but it didn't matter much when Hurricane Ivan visited. That took out the inground pool and first two floors including the building elevator. It was two years before they got back.
                                                Last edited by BGIF; 10-04-2016, 01:38 PM.

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                                                • #25
                                                  Sorry. I am at +10 ft. I just saw that I mistyped that. My house is just upland from the back bay of the barrier islands. I have gone through multiple hurricanes and lived on Folly, downtown and the East Cooper. I won't ever live on a barrier island again. No thank you. Like you said there is one way out when ish hits the fan.

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                                                  • #26
                                                    Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                                    Sorry. I am at +10 ft. I just saw that I mistyped that. My house is just upland from the back bay of the barrier islands. I have gone through multiple hurricanes and lived on Folly, downtown and the East Cooper. I won't ever live on a barrier island again. No thank you. Like you said there is one way out when ish hits the fan.
                                                    Good luck regardless. Keep us informed. Let us know if we can help with anything more than remembrance and prayer. Got that going.

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                                                    • #27
                                                      Good luck folks - good excuse to skip town and head to Raleigh for the ND game though! (glass half full)

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                                                      • #28
                                                        Putting up the storm shutters tomorrow. Looks like we are gonna get whacked. Water and can goods are already scarce on the shelves locally.

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                                                        • #29
                                                          I guess the one good thing about your situation(s) is you can prepare for it... my wife and I were just talking about how long it's been since So Cal was really hit with a big quake... it's been too long, hopefully the tension is released with a series of medium quakes instead of one giant one....

                                                          Anyway, thoughts and prayers guys, hopefully it comes to much ado about nothing...
                                                          This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

                                                          Comment


                                                          • #30
                                                            Originally posted by ACamp1900 View Post
                                                            I guess the one good thing about your situation(s) is you can prepare for it... my wife and I were just talking about how long it's been since So Cal was really hit with a big quake... it's been too long, hopefully the tension is released with a series of medium quakes instead of one giant one....

                                                            Anyway, thoughts and prayers guys, hopefully it comes to much ado about nothing...

                                                            Sorry about your long quiet spell but if you two need to feel the earth move to relieve your MSB, perhaps, you should take things in hand ...

                                                            Comment


                                                            • #31
                                                              Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                                              Sorry about your long quiet spell but if you two need to feel the earth move to relieve your MSB, perhaps, you should take things in hand ...
                                                              The southern fault forever lays dormant here.........
                                                              This sig will not change until The Browns win the Super Bowl... So get real used to it.

                                                              Comment


                                                              • #32
                                                                Everyone on the East coast, please stay safe.

                                                                Thoughts and prayers with all of you
                                                                ...Can he play safety?

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                                                                • #33
                                                                  Can we rename this thread to "Trying to Reason with Hurricane Season"?

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                                                                  • #34

                                                                    Bout to get whacked. Evacuations are imminent by tomorrow it appears. GOIrish41 I would make other arrangements.

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                                                                    • #35
                                                                      Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post

                                                                      Bout to get whacked. Evacuations are imminent by tomorrow it appears. GOIrish41 I would make other arrangements.
                                                                      About where that pink strip on the coast ends is my house!
                                                                      -Water
                                                                      -canned food
                                                                      -Gas in vehicles
                                                                      -extra gas
                                                                      -30 lbs of ice in the deep freezer
                                                                      - batteries
                                                                      -candles
                                                                      Still need to put up the shutters and get a couple handles of vodka!

                                                                      Comment


                                                                      • #36
                                                                        Local forecaster calling for this to hit 8am Saturday within sniffing distance of Myrtle Beach (Sunset Beach matches up with where the H is on the NC/SC border of the map above).

                                                                        Also said Haiti is seeing 10' storm surges.

                                                                        Hang in there coastal folks!

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                                                                        • #37
                                                                          Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post

                                                                          Bout to get whacked. Evacuations are imminent by tomorrow it appears. GOIrish41 I would make other arrangements.
                                                                          Cancelled our trip. Be safe Cack.

                                                                          Comment


                                                                          • #38
                                                                            Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post

                                                                            Bout to get whacked. Evacuations are imminent by tomorrow it appears. GOIrish41 I would make other arrangements.
                                                                            South Carolina governor orders evacuation ahead of hurricane | Reuters

                                                                            Tue Oct 4, 2016 | 5:30pm EDT
                                                                            South Carolina governor orders evacuation ahead of hurricane

                                                                            By Harriet McLeod | CHARLESTON, S.C.
                                                                            South Carolina Governor Nikki Haley declared a state of emergency on Tuesday and ordered an evacuation of more than a million people in coastal areas starting Wednesday afternoon in anticipation of Hurricane Matthew.

                                                                            Florida and Georgia have also called states of emergency for a storm that has pounded the Caribbean with 145 mile-per-hour (230 kph) winds and surging seas and was expected to start affecting U.S. coastal areas late on Thursday or early Friday.

                                                                            Haley pleaded with people to get 100 miles (160 km) away from the coast, but did not say if there would be penalties for those who refuse to comply.

                                                                            "We don't do voluntary or mandatory anymore. An evacuation is an evacuation,"
                                                                            Haley told reporters.

                                                                            By declaring a state of emergency, Haley can mobilize 1,800 members of the National Guard.

                                                                            Highways will have all traffic lanes directed away from the coast for the evacuation, and the state will close schools and county government offices in 26 of the state's 46 counties staring Wednesday.

                                                                            Matthew will be a Category 2 or Category 3 hurricane when it brushes or hits South Carolina on Friday night, she said. Officials anticipate 100 mph (160 kph) winds and five- to seven-foot (1.5- to 2-meter) storm surges in coastal South Carolina, she said.

                                                                            Heavy storms in South Carolina last October killed at least 17 people.

                                                                            Several coastal schools, universities and municipalities, including the city of North Charleston, announced they would close starting on Wednesday.

                                                                            Emergency officials in the Myrtle Beach area advised residents of evacuation zones and routes.

                                                                            Florida Governor Rick Scott, who declared a state of emergency for all 67 counties on Monday, has activated 200 members of the Florida National Guard to support any needed hurricane response and put another 6,000 on standby.

                                                                            Other state agencies prepared by ensuring fuel supplies in potential evacuation zones, readying shelters and highways to handle any evacuees, and taking inventory of emergency food supplies in state schools and warehouses.

                                                                            In Georgia, Governor Nathan Deal issued a state of emergency for 13 counties in coastal areas.

                                                                            "I've ordered the Georgia Emergency Management and Homeland Security Agency (GEMHSA) to work with appropriate state and local agencies to ensure all precautions are taken to protect residents and minimize risks to property and roads," Deal said in a statement.

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                                                                            • #39
                                                                              Some Hope

                                                                              The 11:00 PM National Hurricane Center projects Matthew will not make landfall. It looks to be a little further off the coast of SC and then veers ENE a little more outside the Outer banks.

                                                                              Again it's a projection 96 hours away.


                                                                              In FL, Mattew is projected to be about 50 miles from Jacksonville where ND plays Navy in a month.

                                                                              Comment


                                                                              • #40
                                                                                Matthew tracking along FL coast

                                                                                NHC shows the track 50 miles or so off FL's east coast. Concurrently the Weather Channel is warning the track could make landfall OR move further to sea. They believe Tropical to Hurricane force winds will impact inland.

                                                                                The storm northerly movement appears to be slowing. Jacksonville Friday. Savannah Friday PM through Sat PM. Charleston a couple hours after Savannah with Charleston getting 50-70 mph winds for 18-20 hours from Late Fri night through Sat afternoon. Myrtle Bch gets 40-50 my winds late Fri night through Sat morning then the wind picks up to 50-74 range in the afternoon (post ND game in Raliegh.) about three hours later 25-40 mph winds start to hit Wilmington. Wilmington doesn't get 50-74 mph winds until Sat evening say 6 pm. The storm is expected to take a strong turn to the east.

                                                                                Could be good news for ND NCS but not for FL,GA, and SC coasts. Saturday roughly around noon the eye should be off Charleston. It doesn't reach the Wilmington area until after midnight Sun. Raleigh should get rain nut later, less severe and winds will be lower in the teens.

                                                                                Savannah to Charleston are looking at a foot or more of rain. The I-95 corridor 10 inches. As far inland as Statesboro is forecast for 5-7 inches.
                                                                                Last edited by BGIF; 10-05-2016, 07:30 AM.

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                                                                                • #41
                                                                                  I noticed last night while locking things down that the air temp had dropped significantly from earlier in the evening and the sky was clear as crystal. It seemed to me to be a cold front was moving in from the west. No confirmation here and just my personal observation on the ground but it seems that that might be steering the storm to the east if it holds. Based on what I am seeing/ hearing now it might make a dramatic east turn back out into the ocean though it is still supposed to skirt the coast here.

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                                                                                  • #42
                                                                                    This may be old news to you Cack.

                                                                                    Matthew has been traveling clockwise around a high pressure system over the western Atlantic. The strength of this "High" could push Matthew closer to the US East Coast as it awaits an upper level trough from the Plains states. That push from the "High" farther west could track the storm closer to the north-central Florida Coast, then possibly closer to the Georgia and Carolina coast until the "trough" directs the storm more rapidly north and east by the weekend.
                                                                                    The weather channel earlier showed the trough which would block Matthew's northern movement while a high somewhere around Bermuda plus Hurricane Nicole could cause a loop effect. They noted that Matthew might absorb Nicole. I'll bet the beast doesn't even buy her dinner.

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                                                                                    • #43
                                                                                      I-26 moving at about 3 mph

                                                                                      Cack, are you waiting till 3 pm for the eastbound lanes to be changed to westbound?

                                                                                      Where are you heading to sit out the storm.

                                                                                      Comment


                                                                                      • #44
                                                                                        Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                                                                        Cack, are you waiting till 3 pm for the eastbound lanes to be changed to westbound?

                                                                                        Where are you heading to sit out the storm.
                                                                                        Well, like most things in a married man's life, my plans will be delayed/altered due to my wife. We wont be able to leave until at least 8 pm tonight as she is an essential employee at a gov't entity soooo.....maybe not at all.

                                                                                        If so we will be heading towards my wife's hometown near Augusta.

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                                                                                        • #45
                                                                                          Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                                                                          This may be old news to you Cack.



                                                                                          The weather channel earlier showed the trough which would block Matthew's northern movement while a high somewhere around Bermuda plus Hurricane Nicole could cause a loop effect. They noted that Matthew might absorb Nicole. I'll bet the beast doesn't even buy her dinner.
                                                                                          lol. I dont even know what to think anymore. Btw my facebook feed and NOAA updates its a big mess and everyone is confused.

                                                                                          I did see that model showing it looping back towards Florida. Crazy.

                                                                                          They are closing our office here shortly so I am going to go home and prepare to wait for wife to yet ruin another one of my better laid evacuation plans.

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                                                                                          • #46
                                                                                            Originally posted by Cackalacky View Post
                                                                                            Well, like most things in a married man's life, my plans will be delayed/altered due to my wife. We wont be able to leave until at least 8 pm tonight as she is an essential employee at a gov't entity soooo.....maybe not at all.

                                                                                            If so we will be heading towards my wife's hometown near Augusta.

                                                                                            Wow, she's more important than Al Gore was.

                                                                                            Comment


                                                                                            • #47
                                                                                              Per weather channel

                                                                                              Matthew upgraded to Cat 3, 120mph winds.

                                                                                              Expected to rise to Cat 4 by 10am tomorrow off the coast of Miami.

                                                                                              Comment


                                                                                              • #48
                                                                                                Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                                                                                Wow, she's more important than Al Gore was.

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                                                                                                • #49
                                                                                                  Originally posted by BGIF View Post
                                                                                                  Wow, she's more important than Al Gore was.
                                                                                                  Now we know who really invented the internet.

                                                                                                  Comment


                                                                                                  • #50
                                                                                                    LSU Florida cancelled according to twitter which I can't embed. No make up date.

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