Archive for the ‘Numbers’ Category

The Irish by the Numbers, Part I: 2007’s Offensive Breakdown

Tuesday, January 15th, 2008

With the new year in full swing and school starting up again (welcome, Trevor and Sean!), it’s time to start looking back at 2007 and ahead to ‘08. Oh, that and wasting time thinking about ND football when we really should be writing our dissertations. So with that in mind, the Irish Roundup is proud to bring you “The Irish by the Numbers,” a multi-part series where we break down what happened last year and consider what’s to come.

First up, a great break-down that IE poster Jonathan (”Fishin’ Irish,” for the in-crowd) put together of the offensive numbers from the 2007 season. It was supposed to get up over break, but better late than never. I’ll be back later this week with a breakdown of some of 2007’s numbers on defense.

The Irish by the Numbers, Part I: 2007’s Offensive Breakdown

Here’s a breakdown of the team’s offensive stats by class from the 2007. By “seniors” I mean to include both fifth- and fourth-year guys, since none of 2007’s fourth-year seniors on offense will return for a fifth year anyhow.

Rushing*

Freshmen: 140 Carries, 646 Yards, 4.6 YPC, 6 TD’s**
Sophomores: 128 Carries, 469 Yards, 3.8 YPC, 0 TDS
Juniors: (i.e. Asaph Schwapp): 12 Carries, 14 Yards, 1.2 YPC
Seniors: 37 Carries, 93 Yards, 2.5 YPC, 5 TD’s

Passing***

Freshmen: 139 Completions, 246 Attempts, 6 INT’s, 56.5%, 1264 Yards, 7 TD’s, 103.85 QB rating****
Juniors: 77 Completions, 140 Attempts, 3 INT’s, 55.0%, 736 Yards, 5 TD’s, 106.66 QB rating

Receiving

Freshmen: 66 Receptions, 636 Yards, 9.6 YPR, 6 TD’s
Sophomores: 64 Receptions, 616 Yards, 9.6 YPR, 1 TD
Juniors: 32 Receptions, 258 Yards, 8.1 YPR, 2 TD’s
Seniors: 55 Receptions, 494 Yards, 8.9 YPR, 3 TD’s

Things seem to be looking up, huh? I’m sure I made a math error in there (I did a lot of it in my head), but you get the idea. Freshmen led EVERY SINGLE CATEGORY here in terms of production. That’s simply amazing. The more you look into this, the better this gets:

  • I’m willing to bet that all five of Travis Thomas’s touchdowns occurred when we were in the “goal line” formation. I feel pretty confident when I say that losing him here won’t hurt us, as either James Aldridge or Robert Hughes should be able to pick up improve upon where Thomas left off in that department.
  • The passing game should only improve next year now that Jimmy Clausen has had time to get his feet wet. A deeper, more talented, and more experienced offensive line should help, and the only starter graduating from the line is center John Sullivan. (However, some may see him leaving as a good thing …)
  • The only loss worthy of note in the receiving section is John Carlson. He’ll be tough to replace, but Will Yeatman, Mike Ragone, and incoming freshmen Kyle Rudolph and Joseph Fauria look to fill his place. Also, look for to-be-freshmen wideouts Mike Floyd and John Goodman to make an impact on next year’s depth chart, if not on the gridiron itself.

Obviously, there are lots of uncertainties that need to sort themselves out, and these young players have to become a lot more consistent if the Irish are going to return to ‘05-’06 form. But there’s reason for hope, anyway …

[NOTES:

* I'm factoring out sack yardage here, as well as leaving out Demetrius Jones's numbers, since he left the team mid-season.

** Here's where there's some wiggle room in the stats. JC's two rushing TD's are included here, but his attempts and yards were not. I didn't want to include sacks, as I thought it would detract from the main idea, and I wasn't about to dig through game play-by-plays to find his actual attempts/yardage sans the sacks.

*** Once again, Jones's numbers are factored out.

**** Clausen's Passer Rating. Armando Allen's passing stats were not included in the class QB rating.]

Off to Palo Alto

Saturday, November 24th, 2007

My wife and I are packing up the Volvo in a few hours and heading down and across the Bay to take our son to his first ND game. If you’re at the alumni club tailgate, I’ll be the guy in glasses who’s in bad need of a haircut, toting around a big-eyed eight-month-old in a green #10 jersey. Feel free to say hello.

For my kid’s sake, I’m going to try to enjoy this game no matter what happens, but here are a few things the Irish could do that would help me achieve that more easily:

  • Protect the offensive backfield: Stanford is a horrible defensive team (81st against the run, 107th against the pass, 106th overall), but they’re pretty good at blowing plays up. Their 3.1 sacks per game are good for 11th in the nation, and their average of 7.9 tackles for a loss is 10th. They’ve got three different players - Clinton Snyder, Pat Maynor, and Udeme Udofia - with at least five sacks on the year. Maynor ranks 18th in the nation with almost 1.5 TFLs per game. Please, PLEASE keep them on the proper side of the line of scrimmage.
  • Defend the pass: Stanford’s rushing offense and total offense are similarly horrible, as they’re each ranked 106th overall. But they do pass for over 200 yards per game, and are right around the middle of I-A in that category. Trent Edwards may be gone, but senior quarterback T.C. Ostrander has given the Irish fits in years past: I for one remember the 2005 Fiesta Blow “play-in” game, when he torched ND with 11 of 15 passing for 197 yards as I cried in the stands. Ugh, flashbacks.
  • Show some mental toughness: Reality is that something’s going to go wrong at some point, though hopefully it won’t be on the game’s first series. The Irish managed to rebound pretty well from last week’s early setbacks, but the fact is that the offense spent most of the first half pretty much curled up in the fetal position until the defense went ahead and made some plays for them. Maybe with another win - and an all-around quality game on offense - under their belts, Jimmy Clausen & Co. can be even a bit more resilient this week.
  • Protect the rock: The Irish have lost 13 fumbles this year, including six in their last four games. There’s little doubt that they’ll be able to move the ball against Stanford at least somewhat effectively, but any combination of sacks (see above), penalties (ND has been whistled ten or more times in three games this year, including 11 for 103 yards against Duke), and - especially - turnovers can quickly bring that to a halt. Like I said last week: throwing a pick is one thing; putting the ball on the carpet is quite another.

Look: the fact is that this is another pretty bad team. Since their wins over USC and Arizona, Stanford has lost 23-6 to Oregon State, 27-9 to Washington, and 33-17 to Washington State. The Irish are certainly capable of winning today. Here’s to a fun afternoon of laughing at the LSJUMB and mocking their stupid mascot, a victory to close out 2007, and a happy drive home.

Go Irish, beat Cardinal!

* * *

A few more statistics and bits of news, for the junkies out there … the Cardinal give up over 180 rushing yards and almost 275 passing yards per game … they gave up 449 passing yards to Washington State last week, and 388 rushing yards to Washington the week before … they’re 117th in the nation in sacks allowed, at 4.2 per game … they average only 2.86 yards per carry on offense, and yield 4.3 on defense … they only convert 27% of their third downs, but they have a 76% success rate in the red zone … senior placekicker Derek Belch is just 13-of-20 (65%) in his field goal attempts this year … Stanford’s 3-7 record has come against what Jeff Sagarin ranks as the nations third-toughest schedule … the Irish have not won two games in a row to end a season since 1992 … John Sullivan, Pat Kuntz, Geoff Price, and Sergio Brown are all likely to miss the game with injuries, though Sully may get to see the field briefly for nostalgia’s sake … James Aldridge is on the depth chart and has been practicing in full pads, but reports indicate his having been “hobbled” this past week (though see here as well).

“Here we go again …”

Sunday, November 18th, 2007

A phantom personal foul after a long completion just outside the goal line. A missed field goal. An inefficient drive following a defensive stand, and then a late hit in punt coverage that gets flagged for 15 yards. These are the kinds of plays that have killed the Irish offense all year long, and for a while on Saturday they did the same.

Mistakes breed mistakes like rabbits in the Spring: a false start on fourth-and-two, a beautiful pass on fourth-and-17 that goes through the receiver’s hands, and suddenly you’re staring at 0-0 halftime score against one of the worst teams in college football.

And then, the momentum changes: the defense forces turnovers on consecutive drives, and each of them is turned quickly into seven points. It’s 14-0 at the half. You’ve got things back under control.

THAT’S the storyline that matters from Saturday’s game. Not the 400 yards of total offense, not the three touchdown passes by Jimmy Clausen, not even the explosive emergence of Robert Hughes or the always-gratifying Senior Day win. For once, this team showed a bit of resiliency: they didn’t let themselves get overwhelmed when things went badly. And say what you will about the quality of their opponent, but a 28-7 win (which could very well have been more like 42-0 if not for mental mistakes and bad calls) is a 28-7 win. Suddenly the future looks a lot brighter.

A few numbers to take away from the game:

  • Hughes (17 carries for 110 net yards, and a reception for another 13) obviously earned that game ball, though Armando Allen (nine rushes for 43 yards, and two receptions for 17) and James Aldridge (eight carries for 28 yards, plus a catch for another seven) had solid days as well. One of the biggest challenges facing Charlie Weis (or whoever is calling the plays) in 2008 will be finding a way to get enough carries for each of his three horsemen, together with throwing enough balls in the direction of Duval Kamara, George West, Robby Parris, and Golden Tate, not to mention David Grimes, Will Yeatman, Mike Ragone, and Michael Floyd. The talent is there; I imagine they’ll enjoy letting the spotlight fall where it may.
  • Clausen’s numbers (16-of-32 for 194 yards and three touchdowns) don’t speak to how well he played, especially given that at least four or five catchable balls were dropped. He also showed some good presence in the pocket, and did a good job of avoiding pressure, picking up 25 yards on his six scrambles.
  • The offensive line continued to show some signs of improvement, though pass protection was still a bit spotty at times. It was especially nice to see the screen game start to click.
  • Joe Brockington, David Bruton, Trevor Laws, and Darrin Walls each had a half-dozen tackles, and the defense on a whole played very well. This was the first time this year we saw freshmen Kerry Neal and Brian Smith both starting at the outside linebacker position, and they had quiet but solid days with three tackles a piece. Freshman Ian Williams getting his first start at the nose guard position, also played well, picking up three tackles and generally doing a good job of clogging up the middle.
  • The Irish possessed the ball for over 35 minutes, the first time all year they’ve really managed to control the clock - their previous high had been 32:02 against UCLA.

Finally, a few areas where a good deal of work is still needed:

  •  I’ve already mentioned the troubles in pass protection, as well as the dropped balls by the wide receivers. Clausen’s never going to be able to win those seven Heismans if his teammates don’t help him out.
  • While the Irish pass defense was largely sound, giving up only 138 total passing yards, there were still some blown coverages, and Duke could have picked up some more yardage if open receivers hadn’t been missed.
  • J.J. Jansen’s long-snapping was iffy once again, though Eric Maust made a remarkable play to bail him out and get the punt away under pressure.
  • Notre Dame continues to lack any semblance of consistency in the kicking game, as Brandon Walker missed his lone field goal attempt, from 30 yards out. It may have had something to do with the weather, but those are the kind of kicks you’ve got to make. It will be a shame if the Irish continue to cripple themselves by having to go for broke on fourth down instead of putting points on the board the cheap way.
  • Lastly, penalties were a problem once again: the Irish were whistled eleven times for 103 yards, after committing only nine penalties in their previous three games combined.

All in all, a solid day against an undermanned opponent. There should be plenty more of those in the future as this team continues to develop.

Win big.

Friday, November 16th, 2007

Sorry, but anything else is a loss in my book. I mean, come on people - this is DUKE. 1-9 Duke. 108th in the nation in total offense and 98th in total defense. Four wins in the last four seasons. A team so insignificant in the eyes of the local community that their home crowds look like this:

(Via goduke.com. Ten bucks to anyone who can tell me what the guy on the far right is carrying.)

And yes, I’m well aware that they’ve played well some times this year: beating Northwestern, staying within a couple scores of Virginia, Navy, Miami, and Wake Forest, putting up 24 against Georgia Tech. But it’s Duke, and it’s Senior Day, and it’s DUKE, for heaven’s sake, so anything less than a comfortable margin of victory will leave a bad taste in my mouth.

I almost fear to do this after the Irish failed abjectly in meeting pretty ANY of the “benchmarks” I set for them last week, but here are a few more specific things that I for one would like to see. Let’s start with the offense:

  • 160 yards rushing. The Dukies give up an average of 176.9. There’s no excuse for not coming at least close to that.
  • 4.5 yards per carry. Again, the Blue Devils’ average yield this season has been over 5.0.
  • 250 yards passing. Same story get again: Duke yields 266.0 yards a game through the air. No excuse for not ending up in the vicinity.
  • No more than two sacks. Duke has 21 sacks through ten games. The Irish have given up 17 in their last three. Time to close the turnstiles along the offensive line.

And on defense:

  • Under 70 rushing yards. Duke averages 52.9, last in the NCAA.
  • Under 200 passing yards. Throwing the ball is actually one of the Blue Devils’ stronger points, as they rank 71st with 213.2 yards per game. It would be great to see the Irish defense can come up big in third-and-long situations and keep sophomore quarterback Thaddeus Lewis under that number.
  • Plus-1 in turnovers. If Jimmy Clausen ends up throwing an interception, I can deal with that, though another fumble and I might jump out the nearest window. But Duke has turned the ball over 18 times through their first ten games - there’s no excuse not to force a couple.
  • Get to the quarterback. Obviously this is in part a product of playing option offenses in the last two weeks, but the Irish have a total of ONE sack in their last four games. Obviously the absence of Pat Kuntz will hurt, but ND should be able at least to triple that number with a few well-timed blitzes by defensive backs or edge rushes from the outside linebackers - Duke has given up four sacks a game so far this year.

Put all that together and you’re in a good position to win by at least a couple of touchdowns, which strikes me as the minimum margin of victory against a team like this one.

The fact is that as badly as the Irish played in their last couple of games, Navy and Air Force are both CONSIDERABLY better than Duke. The Blue Devils have been competitive in a lot of their games this year, but that’s probably in part because teams were taking them lightly. Tomorrow’s Senior Day, though, and the 1-9 Irish shouldn’t be looking past ANYONE at this point. Last year’s team would have beaten Duke by a score of 41-10 or something of the like; this year, something along the lines of 28-13 seems big enough.

Benchmarks

Friday, November 9th, 2007

At 1-8 after a crushing loss to Navy last Saturday, Notre Dame needs a win this week if they’re going to avoid having lost to TWO service academies in the same season. Perhaps even more than the win itself, though, the Irish need to build on the few successes they’ve had so far this season, to prove to themselves and their fans that at least they’re developing, as individuals and as a team. Here are some benchmarks to look for in tomorrow’s game (statistics via und.com, ncaa.org, and cfbstats.com).

On defense

The Irish held Navy to 278 yards of total offense through four quarters of regulation last week, and also stopped the Midshipmen on one of their three overtime drives: not a dominant performance by any means, but more than good enough to keep the Irish in the game (recall that seven of Navy’s points came off a fumble recovery). This week, their opponent is once again dangerous on offense (the Falcons’ 272.8 rushing yards per game rank fourth nationally), but at the same time much less consistent overall: Air Force has been held under 350 yards of total offense four times this year, and under 250 once. Their running game has also been contained on occasion - 146 net yards against BYU and 133 against TCU, as well as 212 against New Mexico - and while the Falcons have had a few good days passing the ball - 176 yards against South Carolina State, 193 against Utah, and 237 against Navy - they rank only 118th nationally in this department. But against the wishbone attack, it’s hard to say exactly what would count as success: if, like last week, the Irish defense can force a turnover or two and hold the Falcons to 24 points on the day, it will be hard for me to complain.

On special teams

The Irish averaged 26.2 yards per kickoff return against Navy, and their two punt returns went for 37 yards. It would be good to see them continue to build on that success, though it won’t be easy against an Air Force team that has yielded an average of just 18.1 return yards on kickoffs and 8.7 on punts. Special teams coverage will be important as well (the Falcons average 12.3 yards per punt return), and it goes without saying that the kicking game is a huge question mark. But at the end of the day, what Notre Dame really needs is one or two “big” plays from their special teams: think a punt return for more than 20 yards, a kickoff return past the 40, a punt downed inside the 10, a blocked punt or field goal attempt, and so on.

On offense

This is obviously where the big question marks are, since it’s the place where ND has been by far the suckiest this year. So here’s my laundry list of Things They’d Better Do:

  • Average at least 5.0 4.5 4.0 yards per carry on offense: Air Force opponents have averaged only 3.48 so far this season, so this is by no means a guarantee. I’ve already noted that last week, against a Navy team that was yielding an average of over 4.5 yards per run coming in, the Irish picked up just 3.7 yards on their average carry. But given the once again substantial size differential between the Irish offense and the Falcon defense - there’s a 40-lb. gap in the trenches, and Asaph Schwapp has 30 pounds on the average Air Force linebacker - Notre Dame has no excuse not to some improvement here.
  • Pass for at least 180 170 160 yards: Maybe this is the day Jimmy Clausen finally busts out, but maybe not. So we should keep our expectations reasonable: the Air Force pass defense is actually one of their stronger points, yielding just over 200 yards per game on the season, good for 33rd in the nation. If Clausen - who has averaged only 7.6 yards per completion, 4.4 yards per attempt, and 88.3 passing yards per game so far - completes, say, 17 of 26 pass attempts for 157 yards, Irish fans should be pretty happy.
  • Stay out of second- and third-down and long: Those of you looking for Clausen to start off his first series with a bomb to a streaking Golden Tate have (or had better have - you listening to me, Charlie?) another thing coming. I’ve noted that last week the Irish passed the ball nine times on first and ten - hopefully we’ll see them go to the run early and often tomorrow. (The other side of the coin here is offensive penalties, which killed the Irish through the first half of the season but dropped off sharply in their last two games. Hopefully this is a trend that will last through the rest of the year; this offense just isn’t good enough to be constantly digging out of 1st-and-15 or 2nd-and-20.)
  • Give up no more than two sacks: Obviously this will also play a key role in keeping the offense out of long-yardage situations. Yielding four against Navy last week was worse than bad: it was inexcusable. And Air Force comes in as the much more dangerous pass-rushing team of the two, averaging over two sacks per game (Navy had a total of five through their first nine contests). Keeping the undersized Falcons below that average would be a real positive for this offense.
  • Don’t turn the ball over more than once: Interceptions and - especially - fumbles have been an Achilles heel for this team all season long, and it’s time for that to stop now. Air Force opponents have turned the ball over a total of 25 times this year (14 interceptions, 11 fumbles lost): it’s one thing if Clausen throws a pick, but this team needs in particular to stop putting the ball on the carpet.
  • Make turnovers into points: Obviously this is especially important for drives that start on the opponents’ side of midfield, and this is an area where the Irish offense has been especially shaky this year. Here’s a guideline: if you start the post-turnover drive inside the opposing 40, three points is the minimum; if you start inside the 20, it darn well better be seven.
  • No more than one empty trip to the red zone: Somehow Air Force opponents have managed to convert fewer than two-thirds of their red zone chances so far this year, though that’s due in part to their 65% success rate on field goal attempts. (Irish opponents have averaged over 88% scoring from inside the 20.) But the Notre Dame kicking game has been - how shall we put it? - less than dynamic as well, so a big part of the burden here falls on the rest of the offense. In any case, this team just doesn’t move the ball well enough to blow the few scoring chances it does manage to get.
  • 400 375 350 yards of total offense: The fact of the matter is that this is asking an awful lot, especially after ND put up only 375 against the woeful Midshipmen defense. But at the end of the day, against an Air Force offense that comes in averaging just under 400 total yards a game, that’s probably what will be required if the Irish are going to have a real chance to win.

When you sit down, look at the numbers, and consider (1) what the Irish offense managed to do last week against a defense markedly worse than the one they’ll face this Saturday, and (2) the fact that the Air Force offense is almost certainly going to be good for a few scores, the specter of a possible 1-9 record heading into the Duke game becomes a real one. Here’s hoping the Irish can put their demons to rest.

Pardon me as I stab myself in the eye with a fork.

Sunday, November 4th, 2007

It seems to me that a loss like this one is better left to message board rants (and hilariously angry blog posts - nice job, Jay) than detailed analyses of the sort I’ve usually given, but in lieu of another installment of Simon Smith and his Amazing Dancing Bear, let me just point out four crucial statistics that I think have been somewhat overlooked in the discussions I’ve been party to so far (both on IE and BGS).

338

That’s the total number of offensive yards that Navy had through four quarters and three overtime periods, their second-worst offensive output of the season. At the end of regulation, their rushing total was only 240 yards - a season-worst, and a full football field below their average through the first eight games - and their passing total stood at 38: a combined offensive output of 278 yards, their lowest of the year and over 170 yards below their season-long average coming in. Navy’s average gain of 3.9 yards per carry was also a season-worst, and by a considerable margin at that. The Midshipmen had to punt the ball twice yesterday, something that had happened only two other times all season, and they would have had to do it a third time if Joe Brockington hadn’t been called for a personal foul facemask penalty after a third-down stop on the second Navy possession. Add to that two forced fumbles (only one of which was recovered by the Irish, of course) and two drives where the Midshipmen were held to a field goal attempt - something that had been accomplished only once in each of their previous two games - and it becomes clear that anyone who wants to blame this loss on Corwin Brown’s defense has got another thing coming.

4

That’s the total number of sacks yielded by the Irish, to a defense that came in with only five sacks in their first EIGHT GAMES. Sorry folks, but all is not well with Notre Dame’s offensive line (on which see also “3.7,” below).

27

That’s the total number of passes thrown by Evan Sharpley, on a windy day when it was clear from the start that he was going to be woefully inaccurate. Add in the four sacks and the four (I think) other times where a pass play was called but Sharpley ended up scrambling for positive yardage, and you end up with what looks to have been about 35 pass plays called against a team that was obviously overwhelmed in the trenches when it came to stopping the Irish running game, a fact that Charlie Weis failed to exploit with any consistency until the end of the third quarter. Going through the play-by-play, I count NINE times that Sharpley was asked to throw the ball on first-and-ten. Offensive genius, my ass.

3.7

That’s the average yardage per carry picked up by the Notre Dame offense. It’s easy to look at the box score, see 235 net rushing yards, and conclude that the running game was a real bright spot yesterday. But it took SIXTY-THREE runs to get to that total, and nearly all of the Irish rushing efficiency seemed to be of the “fall forward” variety: the Irish offensive linemen stood up and shoved their massively undersized counterparts nice and hard, and the tailbacks ran through the wreckage they created. If you’re trying to build a D-I football program, that’s not much to hang your hat on.

The bell tolls, indeed. Now, off to find that fork …

A size-able advantage

Friday, November 2nd, 2007

Among the many reasoifns why there is no excuse for the Irish offense to have anything short of an absolute break-out day against Navy tomorrow is the huge size differential that is on their side this week. Here’s a quick comparison chart to get things going (only starters and co-starters are listed):

In other words, Notre Dame’s starting offensive line outweighs Navy’s defensive line by an average of over 44 pounds, their starting offensive backfield of James Aldridge and Asaph Schwapp outweighs the average Navy linebacker by an average of just under 22 pounds, and the average Navy defensive back gives up almost six inches and thirty pounds to Notre Dame’s starting wideouts.

Need more evidence that the Middies are undersized? Here’s a position-by-position comparison of Navy’s defense with those of Notre Dame’s other 2007 opponents (note that I’ve generally had to use the most recent depth charts for these schools, rather than their starting lineups against ND - once again, only starters and co-starters are listed):

With the exception of UCLA, then, Navy will have far and away the smallest defense that Notre Dame has played so far in 2007 - a trend that continues, though not to quite the same degree, over the next three weeks.

It’s not all about size, of course: it’s also about strength, skill, speed, execution, avoiding stupid mistakes, and having the drive to physically dominate your opponent. But once again, there’s no reason to think that the first three of these factors are heavily on the side of the Irish as well: it’s really the others that have been holding them back all year, and it’s those things that one would hope the coaching staff was able to use the bye week to work on. This team isn’t going to become physically different overnight - nor need they do that, when opponents like Navy, Air Force, and Duke are the ones rolling in to town. The big challenge is getting the players to keep their heads in the game after a 1-7 start, and that’s just what Charlie Weis and his assistants are going to have to show that they’re able to do.

There are no more excuses. In the month of November, pretty much every conceivable advantage - the home field, the bye week, the experience of the first two-thirds of the season, the level of talent on the roster - will be on the side of the Irish. Anything short of dominance will be a huge disappointment.

Ripe for the lickin’

Sunday, October 28th, 2007

From the AP wire report on Navy’s 59-52 loss to Div. I-AA Championship Subdivision Who Cares What You Call It Just Know that It’s Really Bad to Lose to a Team from It Delaware on Saturday:

Navy has now allowed 40 points or more to three straight opponents and has surrendered 305 points through eight games.

Delaware scored on nine of its 11 possessions.

The Middies rank 82nd in rushing defense, 109th in pass defense, 105th in total defense, and 114th in scoring defense. Thanks to yesterday’s loss, they ALREADY have TFH. If the Irish offense can’t get things going against this pitiful squad, count me in with this bunch for the time being.

[UPDATE: Via Pitch Right, a thoughtful analysis of why the Navy "D" has been so dreadful. HT: HLS.]

Rage against the (hype) machine

Saturday, October 27th, 2007

I know I’ve already been over this, but after watching tonight’s tOSU-tPSU game I can’t help bringing it up again:

  • Todd Boeckman, @ PSU, 2007: 19/26, 253 yards, 3 TD, 1 INT
  • Troy Smith, vs. PSU, 2006: 12/22, 115 yards, 1 TD, 2 INT

And here, for the junkies, are the season-long numbers once again (italicized stats are projected to a 13-game season):

Boeckman is the starting quarterback for the #1 team in the nation. He made some throws tonight that Smith couldn’t have completed in his wildest dreams. But unless I missed something, there was NO discussion of the possibility that he might be a Heisman candidate this year. Which just goes to show you what preseason hype, or the lack thereof, can do to you.

The Trevor Laws Heisman campaign begins … now

Thursday, October 25th, 2007

Yeah, we all know it’s not going to happen, at least not if the powers that be have their way, which will ensure that college football’s most prestigious individual award goes to either a quarterback or a tailback from now until eternity. But in this season of upset wins, devastating losses, broken booty fingers, and the like, and with many sportswriters talking about how wide-open the Heisman race is this year, it’s worth at least making the case for one guy whom nobody’s talking about at all.

Let’s start, as we are wont to do here at the Roundup, with the numbers. Here’s a comparison of Trevor Laws’s season-long statistics with those of the players recently named quarterfinalists for the Lott trophy (yes, Tom Zbikowski is one of them, and Big Trevor isn’t … don’t get me started), which “honors the college football Defensive IMPACT Player of the Year” - while it claims to factor in some sort of off-the-field component, the list of nominees is a virtual who’s-who of big-name defensive players, and so it’s instructive to see how Laws stacks up against them:

The two players highlighted in yellow are the defensive players getting (somewhat) serious attention in the Heisman race: LSU defensive end Glenn Dorsey (see here, here, and especially here for writers who’ve promoted him) and Ohio State linebacker James Laurinaitis (see here and here). By any reasonable measure, Laws looks to have been having a better defensive season than either of them: the only statistical categories he trails them in are sacks and - in the case of Laurinaitis - interceptions, and he’s nearly doubled Dorsey’s season-long tackle count. And yet, for all the talk about the media obsession with Notre Dame (and Zbikowski’s inclusion in the Lott award list is of course a shining example of this), when we look at the various Heisman polls (see here and here for a couple of examples), what we see are Dorsey and Laurinaitis often quite well-established in at least the “Also Receiving Votes” category, with Laws sharing the fate of the rest of his teammates.

Do I know that I’m pissing into the wind here? Of course I do. The Heisman Trophy - like all the rest of the postseason awards for which Laws won’t be in consideration - is determined by preseason hype and wins alone, as evidenced by the following (italicized numbers projected to 13-game season - click to enlarge):

Don’t despair, though. There’s something you can do. In case you’ve missed the commercials, this year YOU can help decide the Heisman winner! So head on over to Nissan’s Heisman Vote and make Big Trevor your write-in candidate. By my reckoning, the Roundup’s regular readership of a mere few hundred a day could easily get Laws onto the leaderboard, where Georgia Tech’s Tashard Choice currently occupies the bottom spot with just 169 ballots cast in his favor, good for less than 1% of the vote but still enough to get his name up there. (Heaven knows what would happen if the heavyweights *cough*BGS*cough* got behind this.) Together we can make a difference, and salvage one of the few bright spots from this wreck of a season.