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Old 09-11-2018, 02:57 AM   #8 (permalink)
TDHeysus
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Quote:
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Paul is expected to dissipate.
Just like Paul to peter out.
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Old 09-11-2018, 08:52 AM   #9 (permalink)
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Old 09-11-2018, 11:20 AM   #10 (permalink)
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People are f-ing hysterical around here. Holy sh!t we aren't going to have a 100 mile, 350 foot storm surge in Raleigh. We are going to get a lot of rain and some wind knocking over some trees. If you live in this area and are not prepared for going a week without power then you suck at life. Put a new chain on my saw, gassed everything up, stocked up on some essentials, cleaning the gutters tomorrow and batten down the hatches a bit.

Now the folks on the coast, that is a completely different ballgame.

Went to Ft Fisher Aquarium this summer, they have a marker with high water marks from previous hurricanes - they should put that on every beach house for sale in the area. Hazel in 1954 takes the cake and the others weren't even close. This one looks like it has the same potential - I think 20' high water mark which makes 10 or 12 feet look like nothing.

1996 Fran hit Topsail head on with 14 and a half feet surge - well they might be in for more than that in a couple days as this looks to be tracking more Wilmington and north than Southport and west. So many factors including tide tables at time of landfall but up to 20' surge if this hits at Cat 4 would be devastating to whichever beach it hits. Like houses floating out to sea bad.

But not the first time and won't be the last.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:28 PM   #11 (permalink)
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WE'RE GONNA NEED A BIGGER FEMA!
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:36 PM   #12 (permalink)
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HNC 5pm Advisory projects Florence moving a little more southerly with a landfall target (center of cone) at Virginia Creek south of Surf City, north of Top Sail. Then NW of Charlotte/Ashville/Knoxville.

Still days away with a lot of people scrambling and those trying to figure where to scramble to.


Wasn't trying to give Hawaii short shrift last night, NHC only showed the one storm. This morning on the car radio I heard there's one closing on Hawaii. Haven't seen those reports yet.
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Old 09-11-2018, 06:52 PM   #13 (permalink)
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Some local departments in the South Bend area are sending down their river rescue teams to help with water rescues during/after the hurricane.
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Old 09-11-2018, 09:07 PM   #14 (permalink)
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At the risk of further confusing everything, there is something that the public and the politicians never could get straight about GCC. The models and the general science do not (at least in the beginnings) predict MORE storms of this nature. What the science predicts is that certain storms will pick up an unusual amount of energy very quickly and that (as the GCC effect grows more and more through the years) there will be increasing numbers of very powerful storms.

This particular one may turn out to be a classic example of that since it grew from a tropical depression into a category 4 with mindboggling quickness. GCC isn't about (at first) more hurricanes, it's about more monsters. Even relatively small odds of a monster forming, and striking where it really hurts, pushes the gamble (even economically) into Bad Bet realms.

Hopefully we will continue to sort of luck out with this season, and the life loss and economic disaster will be as small as possible. As some of you have already read from me, I have given up fighting against GCC because we have already halfway lost the fight (increased heat retention in the ocean) and will lose the rest of it due to nobody really giving a damm. "Fortunately" I live in nicely insulated Michigan, and am 78 years old, so will pass on to Peter's Gate looking sadly back at a world he!l bent on ruining as much of itself as possible.

I DO wish with all my heart the best for you young guys. I also fear for some of you that life will be tougher than it has to be because of things like this. ... and there are LOTS of other "terrible hippie dipsh!t" sorts of these things. Some of them you can help avoid, but not GCC. You're stuck with that.
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