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Old 02-14-2014, 05:38 PM   #50 (permalink)
wyvrn
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Once upon a time, I had passed Series 7, 63, and 6 licenses. I used to invest in the stock market, but no more. I don't even take the match with my company because even with the free money, I can beat it long term by staying out of the stock market.

To each his own, and I won't tell you not to invest in the 401K. This is just what I do.

The problem with the stock market is that, historically, it is casino gambling. I can tell you as an former investment advisor we always used to quote the 40 year window, 12% annualized return, etc etc..

Now, to do so is criminal in my opinion. Given the historically unprecedented money printing by the Fed, the weak economy, the number of unemployed, total public debt, runaway deficits, lack of industrial production, and international hatred of the US dollar, the future prospects of the US stock and bond markets are pointed down and not up.

Learn your 100-year market history before you invest. Whatever happened in the last 40 years means squat for the next 40 because the factors are different, that I can guarantee you

I can also tell you for a fact that the best long term investment in the US has been productive farmland, especially during economic downturns. Productive farmland has a higher rate of return during recessions and depressions than gold and silver does. Also, most states give you an AG exemption on taxes for hay production. All you have to do is find someone to mow the grass, they take the hay for free (their profit on labor), and you pay almost zilch in property taxes. It's free money, solid growth, and they ain't making any more of it

I have such an investment in my home state, and I feel like I am robbing someone.

Good luck!

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Old 02-14-2014, 06:03 PM   #51 (permalink)
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My best friend is a farmer actually and his father was almost a little disappointed that this year he had a crop. He makes significantly more in bad years because of insurance than in even really good years. There truly is a lot of money in farming.

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Old 02-15-2014, 10:00 AM   #52 (permalink)
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I've read everyone's post and appreciate all of the opinions. I tried to rep you all, but it told me I am a whore.

I am not married with no kids and can live comfortably with my salary as is, so I'm going gravitate towards risky investments.

Since there's so much opinion on this subject, and the fact that I'm a bit of a numbers guy, I'm going to read a couple of the books mentioned and learn to do this on my own.

Couple questions that I hope to answer after I read a book or two are

1) When I'm investing in 'short term' stocks, what exactly does that mean? As in, I need to monitor it monthly, for 2, 5, 10 years?

2) In long term, low risk/low yield stocks (ex, VZ fund 2055), is it safe to simply contribute to that stock and basically ignore it, and spend all of my time controlling 'short term' investments? I want to be in control of this, but I also need to spend my time wisely.

3) What to do when I make a bit of money? Do I take that money out? Re invest it? I'm under the impression I shouldn't touch it no matter what until retirement. So let's say $1,000 makes me $5,000 in a certain stock and I don't think it's going to get any better. Move that money to other stocks is the right move, correct? Or in a 401K, is it the only move (i.e., I can't touch it if I wanted to - or at least it'd be really dumb).

4) How to identify a risk/non-risky stock? I assume fidelity can help me with this.

As you can tell, I'm definitely starting with a clean slate on this subject, lol. Again, thank you all for the input. I will start some homework on this in a week or so (currently reading Kevin Oleary's: Cold Hard Truth on Men, Women, and Money - Very good book so far).

GO IRISH!
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Old 02-15-2014, 10:14 AM   #53 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kuehnja View Post
I've read everyone's post and appreciate all of the opinions. I tried to rep you all, but it told me I am a whore.

I am not married with no kids and can live comfortably with my salary as is, so I'm going gravitate towards risky investments.

Since there's so much opinion on this subject, and the fact that I'm a bit of a numbers guy, I'm going to read a couple of the books mentioned and learn to do this on my own.

Couple questions that I hope to answer after I read a book or two are

1) When I'm investing in 'short term' stocks, what exactly does that mean? As in, I need to monitor it monthly, for 2, 5, 10 years?

2) In long term, low risk/low yield stocks (ex, VZ fund 2055), is it safe to simply contribute to that stock and basically ignore it, and spend all of my time controlling 'short term' investments? I want to be in control of this, but I also need to spend my time wisely.

3) What to do when I make a bit of money? Do I take that money out? Re invest it? I'm under the impression I shouldn't touch it no matter what until retirement. So let's say $1,000 makes me $5,000 in a certain stock and I don't think it's going to get any better. Move that money to other stocks is the right move, correct? Or in a 401K, is it the only move (i.e., I can't touch it if I wanted to - or at least it'd be really dumb).

4) How to identify a risk/non-risky stock? I assume fidelity can help me with this.

As you can tell, I'm definitely starting with a clean slate on this subject, lol. Again, thank you all for the input. I will start some homework on this in a week or so (currently reading Kevin Oleary's: Cold Hard Truth on Men, Women, and Money - Very good book so far).

GO IRISH!
You shouldn't be buying and selling stocks within your 401k. There are actually rules about frequent trading within retirement vehicles that have preferred tax status. You don't want any STOCK at all. You want mutual funds. The risky ones will be categorized as "Aggressive Growth". I'd balance them with some Growth, Growth/Income, and International. About 25% in each type of fund is a good approach. You don't need to worry about buying low and selling high because that's the fund manager's job. Never ever take money out of your 401k unless it's to avoid a foreclosure or bankruptcy because you'll get slaughtered with taxes and penalties. It's a retirement vehicle, so no touching until you retire.

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Old 02-15-2014, 10:17 AM   #54 (permalink)
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kuehnja View Post
I've read everyone's post and appreciate all of the opinions. I tried to rep you all, but it told me I am a whore.

I am not married with no kids and can live comfortably with my salary as is, so I'm going gravitate towards risky investments.

Since there's so much opinion on this subject, and the fact that I'm a bit of a numbers guy, I'm going to read a couple of the books mentioned and learn to do this on my own.

Couple questions that I hope to answer after I read a book or two are

1) When I'm investing in 'short term' stocks, what exactly does that mean? As in, I need to monitor it monthly, for 2, 5, 10 years?

2) In long term, low risk/low yield stocks (ex, VZ fund 2055), is it safe to simply contribute to that stock and basically ignore it, and spend all of my time controlling 'short term' investments? I want to be in control of this, but I also need to spend my time wisely.

3) What to do when I make a bit of money? Do I take that money out? Re invest it? I'm under the impression I shouldn't touch it no matter what until retirement. So let's say $1,000 makes me $5,000 in a certain stock and I don't think it's going to get any better. Move that money to other stocks is the right move, correct? Or in a 401K, is it the only move (i.e., I can't touch it if I wanted to - or at least it'd be really dumb).

4) How to identify a risk/non-risky stock? I assume fidelity can help me with this.

As you can tell, I'm definitely starting with a clean slate on this subject, lol. Again, thank you all for the input. I will start some homework on this in a week or so (currently reading Kevin Oleary's: Cold Hard Truth on Men, Women, and Money - Very good book so far).

GO IRISH!
1. short term stocks or other money market instruments such as commercial paper or treasury bills. If you are just talking stocks then it sounds like you are thinking of speculating or day trading, which has been proven to be a bad strategy and usually doesn't turn out well for the speculator.
2. Long term investments don't need to watched daily however if you have one like the Vanguard index that follows the S&P 500 then it is fairly easy to see how it is doing daily as you just watch the S&P500
3. Almost everyone will tell you to reinvest the capital gains or just leave them in the mutual fund or index you are invested in, even dividends should be reinvested into the fund. If you are talking about your short term stocks then the key to any day trader is to buy low and sell high so if you are speculating on individual stocks then yes sell them when you believe they are at their highest value however as I said earlier I wouldn't recommend day trading. Don't touch your 401, leave the money in the account and let it work, it is okay to rearrange asset allocation but don't pull the money out, huge tax hit.
4. All stocks have some risk, there are numerous capital asset pricing theories that you could look up on numerous sites mentioned on this thread however I believe you should implement a buy and hold strategy in one of the index's rather than trying to predict individual stocks, diverse portfolios protect against this.


Hope this helps
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Old 02-15-2014, 11:06 AM   #55 (permalink)
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Again, thank you guys. So sounds like I just need to diversify, with 25% in aggressive, 25% in growth, 25% in growth income, and 25% in international? Or maybe 20% in each, with 20% in the Verizon 2055 fund.

THEN, let fidelity handle the rest. Much better in their hands anyways, lol.
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Old 02-15-2014, 11:32 AM   #56 (permalink)
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Well, since you hooked me up with a million vbucks......
1. Invest more money - beyond the company match the Roth people have mentioned is a good option.
2. Increase the percentage you invest 1 or 2% every year or when you get a raise.
3. Diversify and reallocate to maintain the percentages that you want for each investment annually
4. Don't mess with your investments too often - you are right, Fidelity can handle that
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