[Vince Young]

Alrighty, I missed my window to update the rankings going into the Elite 8, but I might as well do this now. Here's the pool rankings halfway through the Elite 8 round. Ohio State and UCLA are in the Final 4, and on Sunday we'll see Florida vs. Oregon and North Carolina vs. Georgetown.

Rank . Name .................. Pts . MPS... Status
---------------------------------------------------------
1 .... Pham 1 ................ 930 . 1490 . can still win
2 .... matt_99 ............... 890 . 1170 . can still win
3 .... irishdodger ........... 880 . 1440 . can still win
4 .... RichardRiot ........... 850 . 1410 . can still win
5 .... leprechaun4life ....... 850 . 1210 . eliminated
6 .... stonebreakerwasgod .... 830 . 1390 . can still win
7 .... Magoteaux 1 ........... 810 . 1090 . eliminated
8 .... onenybrother .......... 790 . 1270 . can still win
9 .... Armano 1 .............. 780 . 1340 . can still win
10 ... Uncle 1 ............... 770 . 1250 . would need tiebreaker
11 ... Kickerbg31 ............ 760 . 1320 . can still win
12 ... ojo_223 ............... 760 . 1320 . would need tiebreaker
13 ... brennan 1 ............. 760 . 1040 . eliminated
14 ... GoshenGipper .......... 750 . 1310 . eliminated
15 ... Clausen2Kamara ........ 720 . 1080 . eliminated
16 ... NDFan78 ............... 720 . 1000 . eliminated
17 ... goirish#1 ............. 690 . .... . (not analyzed)
18 ... Jensen 1 .............. 690 . .970 . eliminated
19 ... Texas Tech always loses 680 . 1240 . eliminated
20 ... Akron Irish ........... 680 . .... . (not analyzed)
21 ... Jones 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
22 ... Klang 1 ............... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
23 ... IrishRamMan10 ......... 670 . .... . (not analyzed)
24 ... AZIRISHFAN ............ 630 . 1190 . eliminated
25 ... Steveo2 ............... 620 . .980 . eliminated
26 ... Stark 1 ............... 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
27 ... Newcomb 1 ............. 610 . .... . (not analyzed)
28 ... jones 1 ............... 600 . .... . (not analyzed)
29 ... Mingea III 1 .......... 590 . .... . (not analyzed)
30 ... phillips 2 ............ 570 . .... . (not analyzed)
31 ... willey 1 .............. 560 . .... . (not analyzed)

(Note: MPS means Maximum Possible Score.)

I've done some scenario analysis. There are WAY too many scenarios to go into detail about here, but 2 of the top 12, leprechaun4life and Magoteaux 1, are already eliminated. Their remaining brackets are too similar to those of people above them, leaving them no room to play catch-up. They can still finish quite high, but taking 1st place is impossible for them. And Uncle 1 and ojo_223 are both on thin-ice: they can still win, but EVERYTHING has to go their way just to force a tie for 1st with someone else in the end, in which case they'd have to win by a tie-breaker. But quite a few people are still in it, thanks to the diversity of the remaining brackets at the top.

Of very special interest are the brackets of both stonebreakerwasgod and onenybrother. They both plummetted in the early going with a lot of 1st- and 2nd-round misses, but they've battled back by virtue of their picks in the later rounds. It just goes to show you how important the later rounds can be.

And now, from the Way Too Much Free Time Department... here's some default comparison brackets to measure yourself against. The RPI method was the only method with any twists left to it. Southern Illinois was supposed to upset Kansas; that didn't happen. But then UCLA was supposed to beat Southern Illinois, and UCLA DID win after all, upsetting Kansas. All of the other default methods had Kansas picked to win that game, so that gave RPI a boost and pushed them to the top. (The Kansas loss REALLY hurt the Poll method, which had Kansas getting to the championship game!) However, RPI also had Wisconsin upsetting Florida, which can't happen, so the other methods can still gain that ground back on Sunday if Florida beats Oregon. All 4 methods have North Carolina over Georgetown, so there's nothing to be gained there. But all 4 of the default methods would be near the top compared to the human competitors here!

Rank . Name .................. Pts . Maximum Possible Score
-----------------------------------------------------------
1 .... RPI ................... 880 . 1360
2 .... USA Today & AP polls .. 860 . 1300
3 tie. Straight seeding ...... 850 . 1410
3 tie. Sagarin's power ranking 850 . 1410

And that's it. I'm going back to bed.